Barnes’ college football forecast: Lines that don’t look right

Reacting too much to the previous week is one of the worst mistakes bettors can make.

That’s a word of caution for those taking a look at two of the week’s biggest college football matchups.

No. 9 Iowa State has playoff aspirations, but the Cyclones barely pulled out a 16-10 victory over Northern Iowa of the Football Championship Subdivision in their season opener. Meanwhile, Iowa moved up from No. 18 to No. 10 after destroying then-No. 17 Indiana 34-6.

That seemingly makes Iowa a tantalizing option as a 4-point underdog at Iowa State in a top-10 showdown Saturday, but I wouldn’t expect to see the same Cyclones who barely beat Northern Iowa. Be wary.

The same dynamic is at play for Washington. The Huskies tumbled out of the Top 25 after an awful 13-7 loss to Montana of the FCS and now head to Michigan to take on the Wolverines, who romped past Western Michigan 47-14 in the opener.

Michigan seems like an easy play at -6½, but Washington probably won’t play nearly as poorly this week.

Be careful out there.

Here are five better spots this week:

— Pittsburgh -3: The Panthers rolled to a 51-7 victory in their opener, albeit against bottom feeder Massachusetts, and should be fired up for a trip to SEC country. By making Pitt a road favorite, the bookmakers are telling you everything you need to know.

— East Carolina +2: The Pirates lost 33-19 to Appalachian State in their season opener, but they opened as favorites against the SEC’s South Carolina, which blanked Eastern Illinois 46-0 in its opener. Money has shown up on the Gamecocks to push them to 2-point favorites, but I’ll stick with the bookmakers’ initial assessment that East Carolina is much better than its perception.

— Wyoming -6½: A classic “this line doesn’t look right” game. The Cowboys scored in the final minute to beat FCS team Montana State 19-16, while Northern Illinois won outright as a 19-point underdog at Georgia Tech. But Wyoming is now laying nearly a TD on the road against the Huskies? That line doesn’t look right. Give me Wyoming.

— Middle Tennessee +20: This is a play against Virginia Tech more than a play on the Blue Raiders. The Hokies are in a classic sandwich spot, having knocked off then-No. 10 North Carolina in the opener with a trip to West Virginia next week. Middle Tennessee scored 50 points last week against Monmouth and should score enough against a disinterested Virginia Tech team to stay within 20.

— Utah -7: Brigham Young blew most of a 21-3 lead to Arizona before pulling out a 24-16 victory in the opener, and the Cougars face a substantial step up in class against Utah in the Holy War. Arizona pushed BYU around a little bit up front, and the Utes should be able to dominate the line of scrimmage even more.

— Last week: 3-2

— Season: 3-2

Contact Jim Barnes at jbarnes@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-0277. Follow @JimBarnesLV on Twitter.