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Best bets for Thursday’s NCAA Sweet 16 games

Nevada guard Hallice Cooke (13) and forward Elijah Foster (12) celebrate at the end end of the second half of a second-round game against Cincinnati, in the NCAA college basketball tournament in Nashville, Tenn., Sunday, March 18, 2018. Nevada defeated Cincinnati 75-73. (AP Photo/Mark Humphrey)
Nevada guard Jordan Caroline (24), left, and Cincinnati forward Gary Clark (11), go after a loose ball, during the first half of a second-round game in the NCAA college basketball tournament in Nashville, Tenn., Sunday, March 18, 2018. (AP Photo/Mark Humphrey)
Nevada head coach Eric Musselman reacts to a play, during the first half of a second-round game against Cincinnati in the NCAA college basketball tournament in Nashville, Tenn., Sunday, March 18, 2018. (AP Photo/Mark Humphrey)
Nevada forward Caleb Martin (10) aims for the basket as Cincinnati forward Tre Scott (13) defends, during the first half of a second-round game in the NCAA college basketball tournament in Nashville, Tenn., Sunday, March 18, 2018. (AP Photo/Mark Humphrey)
Cincinnati forward Tre Scott (13), right, dribbles the ball around Nevada forward Cody Martin (11), during the first half of a second-round game in the NCAA college basketball tournament in Nashville, Tenn., Sunday, March 18, 2018. (AP Photo/Mark Humphrey)
Nevada guard Josh Hall (33) sets up his game winning shot as Cincinnati forward Gary Clark (11) and Cincinnati guard Jacob Evans (1), defend, during the second half of a second-round game in the NCAA college basketball tournament in Nashville, Tenn., Sunday, March 18, 2018. Nevada defeated Cincinnati 75-73. (AP Photo/Mark Humphrey)
Tennessee guard Lamonte Turner, left, defends as Loyola-Chicago guard Lucas Williamson (1) drives to the basket during the second half of a second-round game at the NCAA men's college basketball tournament in Dallas, Saturday, March 17, 2018. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)
Loyola-Chicago guard Clayton Custer (13) shoots over Tennessee's Jordan Bowden (23) and Jordan Bone (0) and scores in the final seconds of a second-round game at the NCAA men's college basketball tournament in Dallas, Saturday, March 17, 2018. The shot helped Loyola to a 63-62 win. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)
Loyola-Chicago guard Ben Richardson (14) is fouled by Tennessee guard Lamonte Turner during the second half of a second-round game at the NCAA men's college basketball tournament in Dallas, Saturday, March 17, 2018. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)
Loyola-Chicago center Cameron Krutwig (25) shoots after getting past Loyola-Chicago's Marques Townes, left, and Jake Baughman (2) during the second half of a second-round game at the NCAA men's college basketball tournament in Dallas, Saturday, March 17, 2018. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)
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By / Las Vegas Review-Journal
March 22, 2018 - 2:04 pm
 
Updated March 22, 2018 - 2:04 pm

As we close in on the start of the Sweet 16 on Thursday, the action at Las Vegas sports books has moved the lines in the direction of three underdogs and one favorite.

Sunset Station sports book director Chuck Esposito broke down each game:

Loyola-Chicago vs. UNR, 4:07 p.m.

Opening line: UNR -2.5

Current line: UNR -1.5/-1

“This number has come down a little bit. The big question here is which Cinderella team is going to continue to dance. I don’t think it’s a big surprise that Nevada got there, but Loyola is kind of a Cinderella darling story. They give up a lot of points, but they’re third in the nation in field-goal percentage.”

Texas A&M vs. Michigan, 4:37 p.m.

Opening line: Michigan -3

Current line: Michigan -2.5

“That line is coming down a little bit, too. There has been some play on A&M. The question is can Michigan find their offense? That’s a big key. They haven’t really looked that good.”

Kansas State vs. Kentucky, 6:37 p.m.

Opening line: Kentucky -6

Current line: Kentucky -5

“There has been a little bit of action on Kansas State. Kentucky is playing as good as anybody in the tournament right now and really hasn’t been challenged yet. But this Kansas State team might be the best team they’ve faced over the last six or seven games.”

Florida State vs. Gonzaga, 7:07 p.m.

Opening line: Gonzaga -5.5

Current line: Gonzaga -6/-6.5

“The one favorite (Thursday) that is getting some play is Gonzaga. Gonzaga is better on both sides of the ball, but this Florida State team was outplayed almost the entire game against Xavier and still pulled off the big upset. There might be some value if the number continues to go up.”

Best Bets

Kansas State (+5.5) over Kentucky

Sharp bettors took Kansas State at plus 6.5 and plus 6, and handicapper Kelly Stewart (@KellyInVegas) also is backing the underdog despite several trends in favor of Kentucky, which has won and covered its past five games and has never lost to Kansas State (9-0).

“Kansas State is one of the best defenses Kentucky has faced all season,” she said. “I’m taking the better defense plus the points.”

Kansas State shut down Creighton, one of the highest-scoring teams in the country, in a 69-59 win in the first round, then eliminated Maryland-Baltimore County in an ugly 50-43 win in the second round.

Kentucky held off Davidson (78-73) before blowing out Buffalo (95-75), and Stewart said there’s a recency bias.

“What does the betting public remember last?” she said. “How absolutely ugly Kansas State’s game was against the Retrievers and how Kentucky absolutely dominated a Buffalo team that upset Arizona.”

Kentucky is on a 9-1 over run.

Kentucky (-110) to win South Regional

Handicapper Bruce Marshall prefers to take Kentucky to win the South Regional, where it would face the winner of UNR-Loyola-Chicago in the final. It’s available at minus 110 at the Westgate sports book.

“It’s an interesting price. If Kentucky beats Kansas State, you could have a great chance to middle that with Loyola or the Wolf Pack getting 6 or 8 points and cover your Kentucky bet,” said Marshall (Goldsheet.com). “There’s a good chance to win both. I’m surprised Kentucky is that cheap.”

More betting: Follow all of our sports betting coverage online at reviewjournal.com/betting and @RJ_Sports on Twitter.

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.

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