Best bets for UFC 251

Handicapper Lou Finocchiaro usually bets underdogs, but he doesn’t see many options for the top bouts for UFC 251 on Saturday.

“I see the favorites having the advantage on every single fight on the main card,” Finocchiaro (@GambLou) said.

So that leaves him parlaying his two favorite favorites — Alexander Volkanovski (-215) and Petr Yan (-220) — at Fight Island at Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, for a payout of about +114.

Volkanovski is giving Max Holloway a rematch for the featherweight title after taking the crown from him via unanimous decision in December.

“I saw Volkanovski dominating their first fight, and I don’t know what Holloway can do to change it,” Finocchiaro said. “If he’s more aggressive, that leaves him open to Volkanovski’s wrestling.”

Likewise, Finocchiaro expects Yan to handle Jose Aldo with relative ease in their bantamweight fight.

Finocchiaro notes that he expects public money to show up on both underdogs, so bettors will likely be able to get a better price on the parlay by waiting until closer to fight time.

In the same vein, Finocchiaro does not have a bet yet on welterweight champion Kamaru Usman in his title defense against Jorge Masvidal in the main event, but he does have a “buy price” in mind. Finocchiaro expects public money to show up on Masvidal, and if that drives Usman’s price down from -240 to -200, then the handicapper said he will have a play on Usman.

Zaleski dos Santos +120

Finocchiaro has targeted two underdogs in preliminary matches.

First, Brazil’s Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos faces off with Russia’s Muslim Salikhov in a welterweight bout.

The countries have become increasily contentious in the sport because of the pride over their fighting styles, Brazilian jiujitsu against Russia’s sambo, Finocchiaro said. In this case, the fighters are both strikers and should create “an awesome fight,” he said.

“The Brazilian is an inch or two taller with reach,” Finocchiaro said. “The Russian is not prepared for this heat.”

He’ll back dos Santos at +120.

Grant +145

Finocchiaro’s other play is on Davey Grant in a bantamweight fight against Martin Day, the first match of the card.

Day hasn’t fought since 2018, but more importantly, he allows a high number of significant strikes, Finocchiaro said.

“He has a high output, and he’ll be trading while he’s taking shots, but he has no defense,” Finocchiaro said.

Meanwhile, Grant is a submission specialist who can get Day on the ground and put him away.

“Grant is going to be outgunned standing, and he knows it,” Finocchiaro said.

He will be backing Grant at +145.

Contact Jim Barnes at jbarnes@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-0277. Follow @JimBarnesLV on Twitter.