Best bets for UFC Fight Night 172 in Las Vegas

Weigh-ins can change a bettor’s opinion on a fight.

Friday’s weigh-ins for Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 172 card at the UFC Apex facility made handicapper Lou Finocchiaro change his mind on his two best bets.

Finocchiaro released a play earlier this week on Jessica Eye over Cynthia Calvillo in the main event. But after Eye, who’s 4-1 since dropping from bantamweight (135 pounds) to flyweight (125 pounds), missed weight for the second straight fight, he no longer recommends a bet on her.

“Weigh-ins can be frustrating. You don’t want to pick a fighter who has such a hard weight cut that they compromise themselves,” said Finocchiaro (@GambLou). “I’m in a situation where the gal I liked all week, I can’t like now based on the weigh-ins and how weak and feeble she looks.

“If anything, I would now lean to the other fighter.”

Calvillo, making her flyweight debut after missing weight multiple times at strawweight (115 pounds), is a -120 favorite over Eye (Even) at William Hill.

Finocchiaro also planned on backing underdog Karl Roberson (+180) against Marvin Vettori (-210) in a heated middleweight match in the co-main event but is now backing off after Roberson weighed in 4½ pounds over the limit.

“It appeared Roberson blatantly disregarded the weight limit, so he could come in heavier and less depleted from his weight cut than his opponent,” Finocchiaro said. “It’s cheating for Roberson not to have to go down in weight, and it’s hard for me to back someone who I believe is cheating.

“These two guys don’t like each other. I can’t recommend Roberson now because there are so many unknowns in this fight.”

Finocchiaro was planning to play a full unit each on Eye and Roberson. He recommends two underdogs for a half unit apiece:

Mark De La Rosa (+150) over Jordan Espinoza

This bantamweight bout is on the main card, which starts at 6 p.m. on ESPN.

“It’s a favorable stylistic fight for De La Rosa,” Finocchiaro said. “Espinoza is primarily a standup striker who lost his last two fights. De La Rosa needs to get fights on the floor, and Espinoza has been submitted a number of times in his career. I think De La Rosa is going to be able to drag Espinoza to the ground.

“It’s a manageable fight for De La Rosa, and the opponent is good for him. (De La Rosa’s) wife is a rising star in the UFC, and I think this makes sense.”

Charles Rosa (+160) over Kevin Aguilar

This featherweight bout is on the preliminary card, which starts at 3 p.m. on ESPN.

“Aguilar is primarily a striker whose two recent fights were great opportunities for him but he got beat in both. Rosa is coming off a loss in his last fight but it was to a kid who’s a rising top-10 type of fighter,” Finocchiaro said. “Rosa is a grappler who needs it on the ground. We’re going to take the underdog Rosa to get it to the ground and control the striker in his environment.”

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.