Best bets for UFC on ESPN 11 in Las Vegas
Mixed martial arts handicapper Lou Finocchiaro doesn’t expect much intrigue in the main event of Saturday’s UFC card, but the co-main event is another matter.
Curtis Blaydes is one of the best heavyweights in the world and shouldn’t have much trouble with Alexander Volkov in the main event of the UFC on ESPN 11 card at the UFC Apex facility, Finocchiaro (@GambLou) said.
That is reflected in Blaydes’ -400 price at the Westgate.
Blaydes slots in just behind champion Stipe Miocic and top contenders Daniel Cormier and Francis Ngannou in the division, Finocchiaro said.
“Those are your four heavyweights,” he said.
Blaydes’ price might be too high, but Finocchiaro said he sees no value in Volkov at +330. He does lean toward over 2½ rounds at +110.
Emmett +130
The co-main event does provide an opportunity, Finocchiaro said.
He’s backing Josh Emmett at +130 against Shane Burgos in a featherweight bout.
Emmett’s wrestling skill should make the difference, Finocchiaro said. Burgos is the taller, younger man with a reach advantage, and that will naturally make Emmett have to get inside and get Burgos on the ground, where Emmett will have the edge.
“The caliber of Burgos is going to force Josh Emmett to do some wrestling,” Finocchiaro said. “Emmett has the more balanced attack, and I see value at +130.”
Over 2½ Emmett-Burgos
Likewise, the quality of the two fighters lends itself to the bout going over 2½ rounds at +120, Finocchiaro said.
“These two men are elite in the featherweight division,” he said. “They’re tough as leather and will be very focused for this fight.”
Hubbard +170
Finocchiaro’s other top play comes early in the card when Austin Hubbard meets Max Rohskopf in a lightweight bout.
Rohskopf is highly touted, but is making his UFC debut and taking the fight on a week’s notice, Finocchiaro points out.
He also said the perception of Hubbard is down after he was taken down over and over again in a unanimous decision loss to Mark Madsen in March.
“People don’t believe Hubbard has takedown defense based on that, but I disagree,” Finocchiaro said.
Madsen was a silver medalist in Greco-Roman wrestling at the 2016 Olympics and is one of the best grapplers around, Finocchiaro said.
“Most people haven’t watched that fight,” Finocchiaro said. “Hubbard showed very well in that fight and won the third round.”
Hubbard is a live underdog and is certainly worth a bet at +170, Finocchiaro said.
Contact Jim Barnes at jbarnes@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-0277. Follow @JimBarnesLV on Twitter.
