Best bets on PGA Tour’s return at Charles Schwab Challenge

The PGA Tour will tee off for the first time in three months Thursday at the Charles Schwab Challenge in Fort Worth, Texas.

Golfers won’t need to hit bombs off the tee to win the tournament at narrow Colonial Country Club. But golf bettors should have a decent chance to hit a long shot at the wide-open event.

“My theory is to play long shots out of the gate, watch the first two rounds to see who’s got form and bet on someone going into the weekend who’s 20-1 and four shots back,” handicapper Brian Blessing said. “Right now, we’re all guessing because we have no idea what these guys have been doing the last (13) weeks.

“I’m taking five grenades and the lowest guy is (60-1).”

Blessing, host of Sportsbook Radio on KSHP-AM 1400, played five long shots based largely on driving accuracy.

“The key to this course is to hit the fairway,” he said. “Distance is not a big deal.”

Here are Blessing’s picks:

Sergio Garcia (60-1), Jim Furyk (150-1), Zach Johnson (200-1), Sung Kang (200-1), Chad Campbell (500-1)

“Sergio is really good off the tee and lives in Austin, so he’s used to the Texas winds,” he said. “Furyk leads the Tour in driving accuracy (80 percent) and Campbell is fourth in driving accuracy (73).

“Zach Johnson has won twice there. Kang has two top 10s this year and his caddie (Damon Green) was Johnson’s longtime caddie.”

Brady Kannon, former Westgate SuperContest champion and co-host of VSiN’s “Long Shots” golf betting show, played four golfers to win the tourney and two matchups at very low risk.

“Don’t want to get too aggressive with these players being off for three months and no stats or current form to go off of,” said Kannon (@lasvegasgolfer). “I looked at who has played well here in the past and has at least a decent amount of rounds logged here. I also tried to find good putters and scramblers.

“Finally, I tried to find good prices on guys that generally begin their seasons well. This is really a start to a new season of sorts. There are more unknowns than usual.”

Here are Kannon’s plays (though he played them at better prices):

Jon Rahm (12-1), Xander Schauffele (25-1), Matt Kuchar (60-1), Rory Sabbatini (150-1), Jason Day (-110) over Louis Oosthuizen, Sabbatini (-105) over Ryan Moore

There are many matchups and props posted at Las Vegas sportsbooks, and the Westgate will post adjusted odds after each round and offer live wagering during the final two rounds.

Book report

Rory McIlroy is the 10-1 favorite at the Westgate and Jon Rahm is the 12-1 second choice. They’re the money leaders at William Hill. Jordan Spieth is the ticket leader.

Sungjae Im is the ticket leader at the Westgate, where he’s 35-1 after drawing action at 40-1.

“He was playing really well when play was suspended (March 12),” Westgate vice president of risk Jeff Sherman said.

Justin Thomas is the 16-1 third choice at the Westgate and William Hill, and the rest of the field is 25-1 or higher.

Kevin Na, the defending tournament champion, is 60-1. A William Hill bettor placed a $600 wager to win $36,000 on the Las Vegas resident.

Sherman likes Collin Morikawa (40-1).

“Like Sungjae Im, he’s a young guy with a lot of potential,” he said. “I think this course could fit him.”

Sherman said he lowered the odds on Scottie Scheffler (40-1) and Ryan Palmer (60-1). a Colonial member, because they’re from Texas and have good course form.

Spieth on sale

The same can be said of Spieth, who Sherman said might be a bargain at 40-1. In seven starts at Colonial, Spieth has a win (2016), two runner-up finishes and two other top-10s.

“He’s got tremendous course form, but he was not in good form before the long layoff,” he said. “He’s a very low-risk, high-reward guy this week.”

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.