Bettors taking shots on UNLV, UNR in Mountain West tourney
The betting public’s approach to futures is always the same, William Hill sportsbook director Nick Bogdanovich says.
“In games, they’ll lay the favorite,” he said. “In futures, they’ll always take a price (with an underdog).”
That was the case again when William Hill opened up odds Monday for the Mountain West basketball tournament, which starts Wednesday at the Thomas & Mack Center.
Top-seeded San Diego State, ranked No. 5 in The Associated Press poll, is the -180 favorite, and Utah State is the 3-1 second choice. But the first nine bets that came in on the tournament were on UNLV and UNR, Bogdanovich said.
The Rebels are 7-1 and the Wolf Pack 9-1 at William Hill. (Line shoppers can find UNLV at up to 10-1 and UNR up to 18-1 at other sportsbooks.)
Handicapper Brian Edwards (@vegasbedwards, MajorWager.com) said he also finds the Rebels “somewhat appealing,” but he is concerned about the injury status of Elijah Mitrou-Long.
Edwards said he leans toward all three favorites in Wednesday’s opening games, particularly Fresno State as a 5½-point favorite over Air Force.
“It’s favorite or pass in all three games,” he said. “Air Force is on an 0-12 slide (against the spread). I thought the number would be Fresno State by 7½ or 8.”
New Mexico is an 8½-point favorite over San Jose State, and Colorado State is -10½ against Wyoming.
Edwards said he would also lean toward the over 156 in the San Jose State-New Mexico game.
San Jose State “can’t defend a lick,” he said, “and New Mexico doesn’t defend, either.”
The format of the West Coast Conference tournament, which starts Thursday at Orleans Arena, isn’t as appealing for bettors.
The top two seeds, Gonzaga and Brigham Young, have byes into the semifinals, meaning Saint Mary’s, the league’s other apparent NCAA Tournament team, probably would have to defeat both to win the title.
Gonzaga, No. 2 in the AP poll, is the -300 favorite to win the tournament at William Hill, and BYU is 3-1. Saint Mary’s is +550 at William Hill but is available as high as +1,350 at Circa Sports.
The format of the tournament “rewards a team’s yearlong work, which I have no problem with,” Bogdanovich said. “But it hurts betting in this pool.”
Edwards said he likes the way BYU is playing and wouldn’t be surprised if the Cougars made the Sweet 16. But instead of betting on BYU before the tournament, bettors would be better off just taking the Cougars on the money line against Gonzaga in the likely title game, he said.
BYU was a +170 home underdog when it upset Gonzaga 91-78 on Feb. 22, and the Cougars were +750 underdogs in a 92-69 loss at Gonzaga on Jan. 18.
BYU probably would be at least +300 in a potential final on a neutral court Tuesday.
Contact Jim Barnes at jbarnes@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-0277. Follow @JimBarnesLV on Twitter.
Tournament odds
At Westgate
Mountain West
San Diego State -175
Utah State 3-1
UNLV 10-1
UNR 14-1
Boise State 16-1
Colorado State 16-1
Fresno State 100-1
New Mexico 100-1
Air Force 300-1
San Jose State 1,000-1
Wyoming 1,000-1
West Coast
Gonzaga -400
BYU 3-1
Saint Mary's 12-1
San Francisco 30-1
Pacific 80-1
Pepperdine 80-1
Loyola Marymount 500-1
Santa Clara 500-1
Portland 1,000-1
San Diego 1,000-1
