Bills to rebound vs. Cowboys

With a star on his helmet and a target on his back, Tony Romo has been criticized more than any other quarterback in the NFL this season. The defining games are still in front of Romo and the Dallas Cowboys, however.

The Cowboys' inconsistency shows in their 4-4 record, and today's game against the Buffalo Bills (5-3) is an important one for both teams. Dallas is a 5½-point home favorite.

After getting embarrassed in a 34-7 loss at Philadelphia two weeks ago, the Cowboys came back with an unconvincing victory over Seattle. The Bills, one of the league's surprise teams, are looking to bounce back from a 27-11 loss to the New York Jets.

Buffalo is a better bet to rebound, according to SystemPlays.com handicapper Doug Fitz, who recommends taking the points.

"Saying the Cowboys have been underachievers would be a major understatement," Fitz said. "Their blowout loss at Philadelphia was one of the most pathetic performances I've seen in a long time. A week later, they failed to cover against a Seattle team that usually plays very poorly on the road.

"The Bills just played their first bad game. I prefer betting good teams to bounce back the week after a weak performance under the right circumstances, especially in the underdog role. Buffalo followed up both of its previous losses with impressive straight-up wins."

Dallas has been a poor home favorite by covering only one of four in that role this season.

Romo is getting more ground support from DeMarco Murray, who has rushed for 466 yards in the past three games, and they will attack the Bills' 20th-ranked defense.

But Buffalo coach Chan Gailey has put together a blue-collar team, and its losses to Cincinnati and the New York Giants were by three points each.

The Bills are balanced on offense, with Ryan Fitzpatrick passing for 15 touchdowns and Fred Jackson rushing for 803 yards and six scores.

Fitz analyzes the rest of today's Week 10 schedule:

■ Pittsburgh (-3½) at Cincinnati: If a team that is 7-1 ATS is getting points at home against a division opponent, I'll take those points most of the time. I'm not sure the Steelers can recover or focus after their last-minute loss to Baltimore in an important game last week. Pittsburgh is 19th in the league in rushing offense, and Cincinnati's defense ranks No. 2 against the run, allowing 84.5 yards per game. There doesn't seem to be a lot of respect for the Bengals, but I believe they are for real, so this is a strong play on the underdog.

■ Denver at Kansas City (-3): The Broncos are 2-2 straight up and 3-1 ATS on the road, with their only spread loss being at Green Bay in Week 4. Denver is better than its 3-5 record indicates. The jury is still out on quarterback Tim Tebow, but when he's on his game, he makes some big plays and keeps the defense on its heels with his running ability. Kansas City is 2-2 ATS at home. AFC West games are usually favorable for the underdogs. I'll take the Broncos.

■ Jacksonville (-3) at Indianapolis: I won't be putting any real money on this clash of the titans. File this one under the "If you put a gun to my head" tag. The Colts are simply playing out the rest of the season to win the Andrew Luck sweepstakes so they can draft the Stanford quarterback No. 1. This is a reluctant lean to the Jaguars, only because Indianapolis has become by far the worst team in the NFL.

■ Houston (-3½) at Tampa Bay: This might be a tough spot for the Texans, who have won three in a row and are headed into a bye. The Buccaneers have dropped their past two, but their most recent home game was an impressive upset of the Saints. I lean a little to Tampa Bay getting a field goal and a hook.

■ Tennessee at Carolina (-3½): The Panthers are 4-1 ATS at home, and rookie quarterback Cam Newton has made his team respectable. The problem is Carolina's defense can't seem to stop anyone, especially against the run. With running back Chris Johnson finally showing a few signs of life last week, the Titans can keep this close. I'll lean to Tennessee.

■ Washington at Miami (-4): The Dolphins are 0-3 straight up and ATS at home. The Redskins are riding a four-game losing streak, but they are 2-2 ATS on the road. Because of Miami's trend of playing poorly at home, I'll take the points with Washington in an ugly matchup to handicap.

■ New Orleans at Atlanta (Pick): As well as the Saints play at home, they are the exact opposite when they hit the road, going 2-3 straight up and 1-4 ATS. New Orleans has a problem with its minus-6 turnover ratio. Atlanta is 2-1 straight up and ATS at home, with the loss to Green Bay. This is a strong play on the Falcons.

■ Detroit at Chicago (-3): When these teams met in Week 5, the Lions won 24-13 in a game that stayed under the total of 47. Detroit's defense ranks No. 2 in the NFC. The Bears appear rejuvenated on defense after a three-game winning streak. Chicago will rely primarily on outstanding running back Matt Forte, who is second in the league with 805 yards on the ground. The forecast calls for high winds, and I look for this to stay under the total (44).

■ St. Louis at Cleveland (-2½): Browns quarterback Colt McCoy is not producing much offense, and he's not getting any help from his mediocre running backs and receivers. Both teams are so bad that I can't make a good case for either side, so this is my only pass on the board. Like the Jaguars-Colts game, you really need some guts to bet this one.

■ Arizona at Philadelphia (-14): The Eagles are 1-3 straight up and ATS at home. The Cardinals have been competitive on the road, going 2-2 ATS and losing by three points at Baltimore and by one point at Washington. The Monday night loss to the Bears has to be devastating to Philadelphia after it appeared the "Dream Team" had gotten back on track. I can't see the Eagles regrouping enough to cover this huge number. The Cardinals are a strong play.

■ Baltimore (-6½) at Seattle: This spot is terrible for the Ravens after their dramatic win at Pittsburgh. Seattle has been respectable under coach Pete Carroll in the right spots and is 2-1 ATS at home. I can't see Baltimore being motivated in this difficult scheduling situation, so I lean to the Seahawks.

■ New York Giants at San Francisco (-3½): The Giants are in a tough spot, too. Not only do they travel to the West Coast to face a 49ers team that is 7-0-1 ATS, but this game follows a huge win at New England with division rival Philadelphia on deck next week. I don't think the Giants can overcome this sandwich situation. I'll go with San Francisco.

■ New England at New York Jets (-2): It's almost inconceivable the Patriots could lose three in a row, right? Why not? Every time quarterback Tom Brady puts points on the board, New England's terrible defense gives it right back. Since losing 30-21 at New England on Oct. 9, the Jets have won three straight. They are playing better, and they are in a revenge situation at home. This is a strong play on the Jets.

COMPILED BY MATT YOUMANS/REVIEW-JOURNAL