Chiefs by 1 or 2 over Bucs would be sportsbooks’ ‘dream’ scenario

It’s the same situation in virtually every Super Bowl.

The betting public backs the underdog on the money line and the favorite against the spread. Likewise, Las Vegas sportsbooks usually need the favorite to win but not cover.

It’s shaping up as the same scenario for Super Bowl LV, where the Kansas City Chiefs remain consensus 3-point favorites over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

“It could be a huge windfall for the books if Kansas City wins by 1 or 2 points,” Westgate sportsbook director John Murray said Tuesday. “If we can somehow get the favorite to win the game but not cover the spread. That’s almost always the best-case scenario in the Super Bowl.”

The last time that happened was in 2009, when the Pittsburgh Steelers beat the Arizona Cardinals 27-23 but didn’t cover as 7-point favorites.

“Books absolutely cleaned up,” Murray said. “That’s kind of the pipe dream.”

That dream scenario for the books — and nightmare result for most bettors — has played out only five times in the first 54 Super Bowls.

The first time it happened was in 1989, when Joe Montana led the 49ers to a 20-16 comeback win over the Cincinnati Bengals, but San Francisco didn’t cover the 7-point spread.

In 1996, the Dallas Cowboys (-13½) won but didn’t cover in a 27-17 win over the Steelers.

The Patriots were the last team to repeat as Super Bowl champions in 2004 and 2005, but didn’t cover in either game as 7-point favorites. New England clipped the Carolina Panthers 32-29 in 2004 and edged the Philadelphia Eagles 24-21 in 2005.

Two favorites won but pushed ATS, as the Green Bay Packers (-14) beat the Patriots 35-21 in 1997 and the St. Louis Rams (-7) beat the Tennessee Titans 23-16 in 2000.

With the line for Sunday’s game in Tampa, Florida, sitting at -3 (-120) at most Las Vegas books and at -3½ (-105) at BetMGM and Station Casinos, there’s a chance bettors can push on the Chiefs -3 and win on Bucs +3½ if Kansas City wins by a field goal.

“If Kansas City lands 3, a lot of books will get sided,” Murray said. “I’d be very surprised if the game moved off 3 or 3½. The number is going to stay between 3 and 3½ all the way up through kickoff.

“The only thing that would change that would be a curveball that so-and-so has the virus. You might see the total creep back up because the public is obviously going to bet the game over.”

The consensus total is 56½ after opening at 57½. But it was down to 56 on Tuesday at the Westgate, William Hill, Circa and Treasure Island.

Murray said 75 percent of money on the total is on the over “but all sharp bets on the under.”

The South Point is the only book offering the Chiefs -3 flat, or at -110. The Westgate has KC -3 (-120).

“If we went to -110, we would take sharp bets on Kansas City,” Murray said. “If we go to 3½, we’re going to get sharp guys taking the Buccaneers.”

The Chiefs are -165 on the money line, and the Bucs are +145.

“I wouldn’t be surprised if the money line came back down a bit,” Murray said. “People who are taking the Buccaneers will take them on the money line to get more bang for their buck.”

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.