College football picks: Auburn can make statement vs. Ole Miss
Three teams control their destiny in the Southeastern Conference, and one of them is Auburn.
The Tigers are playing at home after their bye week against Mississippi, which is playing its third SEC road game in five weeks.
The Rebels just announced starting left guard Ben Brown is out for the season. They’ve been playing without receivers Braylon Sanders, Jonathan Mingo and Bralon Brown, and tight end Chase Rogers.
Ole Miss receiver Dontario Drummond should get plenty of targets. But Auburn can counter with Roger McCreary, the third-best cornerback this season as graded by Pro Football Focus.
The Rebels are a strong running team but could be one-dimensional on offense, as they’re 112th in standard downs sack rate.
The Ole Miss run defense is 110th in Expected Points Added per rush, 115th in standard downs line yards and 110th in stuff rate. Auburn running backs Tank Bigsby, Jarquez Hunter and the experienced offensive line are licking their chops.
The Rebels have played four consecutive emotionally taxing games, including some high snap counts against Arkansas and Tennessee.
Take Auburn -2½.
Four more plays (home team in CAPS):
Kansas +30½ over OKLAHOMA STATE: Oklahoma State hasn’t scored more than 21 points in a game this season. Kansas has covered in back-to-back games after a bye week and has averaged 19.3 points in its past four games. The Jayhawks are 67th in EPA per pass on offense. Kansas quarterback Jason Bean will do enough to lead two or three scoring drives and cover the number.
SOUTH ALABAMA (-9) over Arkansas State: The Red Wolves defense is 129th in EPA per snap and in SP+. Arkansas State is 130th in rushing yards per carry allowed and 126th in opponent passer rating. South Alabama quarterback Jake Bentley is completing 69.1 percent of his passes, in large part because of Jalen Tolbert, one of the best Group of Five receivers. The Jaguars need a win to stay on track to become bowl eligible after losses to Louisiana (20-18) and Texas State (33-31 in quadruple overtime).
Louisiana-Monroe (+27) over APPALACHIAN STATE: The Warhawks have two of college football’s five biggest Football Bowl Subdivision vs. FBS upsets this season, winning outright as 32-point underdogs against Liberty and as 23½-point underdogs vs. Troy. They also beat South Alabama as 13½-point underdogs last week. Appalachian State is in a letdown spot after a huge win against a ranked Coastal Carolina team. The Mountaineers are 109th in EPA per rush, so it’s not a given they will line up and gain 5 yards per carry all game.
Michigan-MICHIGAN STATE U50½: Michigan runs the ball on 66.2 percent of its snaps. Michigan State runs only 57.7 percent of the time. But the Wolverines’ rush defense is sixth in EPA per snap. Michigan is tied for 103rd in explosive passing plays of 20-plus yards. Neither offense pushes tempo. Against its strongest Big Ten opponents, Michigan State defeated Nebraska 23-20 in overtime and Indiana 20-15.
Last week: 3-2
Season: 23-17
Christopher Smith of AL.com is providing college football analysis for the Las Vegas Review-Journal. Follow @CFBlocksmith on Twitter.
