College football season win-total best bets: Air Force over
College football is back and bettors are banking on Air Force to fly over its regular season win total.
The Falcons, who went 10-3 last season, are second in tickets and money wagered among all 131 season-win totals at Caesars Sportsbook to go over their number, which has climbed from 7½ to 8½.
“We’ve gotten tremendous over action on Air Force,” Caesars college football trader Joey Feazel said. “They had a good (season) last year, and they have a lot of returning starters.
“I’m interested to see whether Air Force is the real deal or not. But bettors certainly think so.”
Count Texas-based pro sports bettor Paul Stone among those who like Air Force to top its total.
Stone said it is somewhat unusual for a service academy to have 15 returning starters, adding the Falcons have won 21 of their past 27 games.
“Air Force is going to be favored in at least 10 of its 12 regular season games,” said Stone (@PaulStoneSports). “If the Falcons are underdogs against Boise State or San Diego State, they’ll likely be getting a field goal or less in both, so I really think their schedule sets up favorably.”
Texas Tech, Under 6
Stone also likes Texas Tech to finish under six wins in its first season under former Texas high school coaching legend Joey McGuire. The Red Raiders have suffered 12 straight losing seasons in Big 12 play, and their schedule is ranked among the nation’s top 20 most difficult by most publications.
“McGuire may get Texas Tech headed in the right direction in time,” Stone said. “But I don’t see the Red Raiders batting .500 against that schedule in his first season.”
Pro handicapper Brian Edwards (@vegasbedwards) recommends bets on four season win totals (with comments on each).
Mississippi, Over 7½
“Since Ole Miss lost four of its first five games to start Lane Kiffin’s tenure, it has compiled an impressive 14-4 record. Don’t expect last year’s breakout 10-3 campaign to be an anomaly as long as Kiffin is in Oxford, either.
“Kiffin’s team returns seven starters from a defense that was vastly improved, going from giving up 38.3 points per game in 2020 to 24.7 last season.”
Georgia Tech, Under 3½
“Geoff Collins enters the fourth season of his tenure at Georgia Tech on a boiling hot seat. Some are surprised that he’s even getting a fourth year after going 3-9, 3-7 and 3-9.
“Since Collins took over in 2019, the Yellow Jackets have surrendered 32.4, 36.8 and 33.5 points per game. Georgia Tech returns only eight starters, five on offense and three on defense.”
Pittsburgh, Over 8½
The Panthers, who went 11-3 last season, are one of the most popular under bets at Caesars after quarterback Kenny Pickett left for the NFL and wide receiver Jordan Addison transferred to Southern California.
But Edwards still expects Pittsburgh to win at least nine games behind QB Kedon Slovis, a USC transfer, and what he considers the best offensive line in the Atlantic Coast Conference.
“Don’t expect Pitt to duplicate its 41.4-point-per-game average, but I don’t see this offense, which has eight returning starters, struggling to score points.
“Pitt has seven starters back from a defense that allowed an average of 23.6 points per game.”
Fresno State, Over 8½
“The Bulldogs return eight starters on offense and seven on defense from a squad that finished 10-3 straight up and 8-5 against the spread. Most important, star quarterback Jake Haener decided to return to Fresno after initially following former coach Kalen DeBoer to Washington.”
Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.
