Defense could dominate Georgia-Auburn, keep game under total

Auburn and Georgia have combined for 37 points or fewer in five of their last six meetings.

The Bulldogs’ defense features a nation-best eight former five-star recruits and ranks No. 1 in defensive SP+.

It won’t attack you. It avoids big plays and forces you to out-execute its superior athletes all the way down the field.

Auburn’s offensive line and running game are suspect. Quarterback Bo Nix has struggled against top-tier defenses. Seth Williams and Eli Stove are good receivers, but they will have tougher matchups this week.

We still don’t know who will play quarterback for Georgia: Southern California transfer J.T. Daniels, who was recently cleared medically and is learning a new offense, or former walk-on Stetson Bennett IV, recently fourth on the depth chart.

Georgia’s receivers, outside of George Pickens, are not that impressive. Running the ball is important to Bulldogs coach Kirby Smart, but attrition has hammered his offensive line. And with all due respect to Zamir White and James Cook, they aren’t in the same class as former Georgia running backs Todd Gurley, Nick Chubb and Sony Michel.

Defenses should control the game. Take under 44½.

Four more plays (home team in CAPS):

Texas Christian (+12) over TEXAS: The Horned Frogs are 2-7 in their last nine games mainly because of poor luck. Six of those losses were by one possession. And if QB Max Duggan had played the entire game against Iowa State, TCU probably would have won. This might not be TCU coach Gary Patterson’s best defense, but it will be a stiffer challenge for the Longhorns than the 11 stationary lawn chairs Texas Tech rolled out. TCU has won and covered five of its last six games against Texas. The Longhorns are 4-10 ATS as Big 12 favorites, and their defense still isn’t championship-caliber.

Missouri (+12½) over TENNESSEE: Missouri’s front seven performed better against Alabama than it appears in the box score. The Crimson Tide have one of the nation’s best offensive lines, and it looked just OK on film against the Tigers. I trust Missouri defensive coordinator Ryan Walters to stop the run and pressure Vols QB Jarrett Guarantano. Plus, if Missouri needs a backdoor cover, we’ve already seen Tigers coach Eli Drinkwitz go all out to score a meaningless last-second touchdown.

Virginia Tech (-12) over DUKE: The Blue Devils have 14 turnovers and four touchdowns in three games. Clemson transfer QB Chase Brice has barely completed 50 percent of his passes. Duke’s pass defense looked capable of keeping it in games until starting cornerbacks Josh Blackwell and Mark Gilbert suffered injuries against Boston College. Virginia Tech, which scored 45 points against North Carolina State without its starting quarterback, should be able to score enough to cover.

Arkansas (+17½) over MISSISSIPPI STATE: The Bulldogs trounced defending national champion Louisiana State 44-34. But LSU was missing Derek Stingley Jr., the best cornerback in the country. More important, LSU refused to adjust, playing man coverage against a Mike Leach offense designed to beat man coverage. Arkansas defensive coordinator Barry Odom won’t make the same glaring schematic error. Expect Arkansas’ offense to look better against a lesser defense, too.

Last week: 0-5

Season: 7-8

Christopher Smith of AL.com and BetOnline is providing college football analysis for the Las Vegas Review-Journal. Follow @cfblocksmith on Twitter.