Edge at quarterback enough to side with Colts over Jets

Of all the matchups on NFL wild-card weekend, the one pitting Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts against the New York Jets might be the most confounding.

Ask almost anyone and they'll say New York is the better team. It might not be that simple, though, because No. 18 in blue is an ace at quarterback.

Indianapolis opened as a 3-point favorite in today's game. In short order, money came in on the Jets, and the Colts are now consensus 2½-point favorites. The total is set at 44½.

This is a rematch of last year's AFC Championship Game, which Indianapolis won, 30-17. But that was a long time ago. The Colts rose from the dead in the final month of the regular season just to make the postseason party.

Manning suffered through one of the worst slumps of his career this season, but he regrouped and led the Colts (10-6) to the AFC South title. Indianapolis overcame critical injuries on the offensive line and the loss of reliable tight end Dallas Clark.

The Jets (11-5) have been a mystery, talking big yet struggling to beat ordinary teams on many occasions. Their defense remains their strength, and the last thing they wanted to see was Manning on the other side of the line.

Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez has been solid but unspectacular and will have to kick it up a notch to trade shots with Manning.

Las Vegas Sports Consultants oddsmaker Mike Seba said it could be a tale of two teams heading in opposite directions.

"The Colts have been playing well in recent weeks, while the Jets may have peaked a while ago," Seba said. "The number is right at Colts minus-2½. The key number will be key here. At plus-3 the Jets will be a take from the players. The bottom line for me is it's extremely tough to go against Manning at home."

A look at the rest of the wild-card rotation:

■ New Orleans (-10) at Seattle: The Seahawks sneak into the playoffs with a 7-9 record. The defending Super Bowl champ Saints have had a relatively quiet season, winning in workmanlike fashion, as opposed to their high-flying offense of a year ago.

New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees is more than capable of shifting into a higher gear now that the playoffs have arrived.

"The Saints are limited at the running back position, and the professionals will likely line up on game day and take the points with Seattle," Seba said. "New Orleans' mindset may prove to be simply win and advance. So with a big lead, the Saints could let up, which brings the backdoor cover into play."

If Seahawks quarterback Matt Hasselbeck was completely healthy, Seba said the line would have been 7 to 7½.

■ Baltimore (-3) at Kansas City: The Ravens might be the most dangerous foe that New England could face in its trek to the Super Bowl, but nothing guarantees Baltimore skates past this game.

The Chiefs flopped in Week 17 against the Raiders, the first home loss of the season for Kansas City. The Chiefs had a playoff berth secured and caught wind of the pending departure of offensive coordinator Charlie Weis before last week's game.

The Ravens display superb offensive balance and are built to win on the road. Joe Flacco provides steady leadership at quarterback, and with versatile running back Ray Rice, the offense can put up big numbers. The key player could be tight end Todd Heap, a potential matchup nightmare for the Chiefs.

The Baltimore defense is getting up in age but still makes big plays, and there is no substitute for big-game experience.

"I respect the Ravens a lot, but their window of opportunity is closing quickly," Seba said. "The Chiefs' inexperience at this time of year could be a problem."

■ Green Bay at Philadelphia (-3): The Packers needed to rally to reach the postseason and responded well. But the sledding gets tougher against Michael Vick and the Eagles' offensive speed.

Aaron Rodgers gives Green Bay a fighting chance, but can the Packers be a major factor in the playoffs with an ordinary running game?

"We were initially thinking Philly was a 3½-point favorite at home knowing these teams are so evenly matched," Seba said. "The concern may be Rodgers, who doesn't seem as sharp following an accumulation of concussions. This could be the best game of the weekend."

Brian Blessing, host of Sportsbook Radio on ESPN (1100 AM, 98.9 FM), can be reached at blessproductions@yahoo.com.