Florida State has the talent to hang with Notre Dame

You wouldn’t know it based on the 2020 versions of these programs, but the talent gap between Notre Dame and Florida State isn’t that big.

According to the 247Sports Team Talent Composite, Notre Dame boasts the 12th-best roster in college football, and Florida State sits at 20th.

Notre Dame’s offense transitions from Ian Book, a good dual-threat quarterback, to Jack Coan, a statue who averaged just 7.5 yards per completion at Wisconsin. Notre Dame lacks difference makers outside at receiver. The Fighting Irish also return just one offensive lineman with any starting experience.

It’s unclear whether Florida State will start former Central Florida star quarterback McKenzie Milton in a comeback story reminiscent of Alex Smith or go with Jordan Travis. But second-year Seminoles coach Mike Norvell got a full offseason to implement his systems. A quietly improving offensive line and backfield will offer a boost to the passing game and defense.

Florida State won’t remind anyone of the Bobby Bowden days this season. But expect a low-scoring, competitive grind in the opener against Notre Dame.

Take the Seminoles +7.

Four more plays (home team in CAPS):

Texas-San Antonio (+5) over ILLINOIS: The Fighting Illini lost a starting linebacker for the season and probably won’t have QB Brandon Peters this week. Illinois scored a defensive touchdown in its win over Nebraska and also threw an interception that got wiped out because of a penalty in a game in which it got outgained. UTSA gets to see a full game on film before playing, which was a big ATS advantage for teams last year. The Roadrunners return 21 starters from a team that was a shocking plus-38 yards per game against Conference USA teams despite no spring practice. Running back Sincere McCormick is one of the best in the nation, and QB Frank Harris ran for 5.6 yards per carry last season behind a good offensive line.

MARYLAND (+3) over West Virginia: Terrapins QB Taulia Tagovailoa and a deep group of receivers should produce explosive plays for Maryland this season operating behind a veteran offensive line. ESPN’s SP+ projects Maryland as a 1-point favorite against West Virginia on a neutral field, and this game takes place at Maryland Stadium. The Mountaineers lost two first-team All-Big 12 players and one second-team All-Big 12 player from their defense. I’m not sure QB Jarret Doege and a mediocre group of receivers can keep pace.

Louisiana Tech (+23) over MISSISSIPPI STATE: Louisiana Tech is 22-12-2 ATS as a road underdog in the last decade. That includes a 3-1 ATS mark as a road ’dog against Southeastern Conference teams in the last five years. Skip Holtz gets 10 starters back on defense, and I assume he and his staff will be smart enough to drop eight into coverage against Bulldogs coach Mike Leach and the Air Raid offense. Mississippi State’s offense will be better, but it topped 24 points just twice in 11 games last season.

Massachusetts (+38) over PITTSBURGH: The Panthers are 3-8-1 ATS as double-digit favorites under Pat Narduzzi and 8-15-2 ATS as favorites overall. Pitt offensive coordinator Mark Whipple was the last coach for the Minutemen. Pitt also plays at Tennessee next week. For those reasons, I don’t expect the old-school Narduzzi to run up the score. The Minutemen are still one of the worst FBS teams but are deeper than they were the last two years.

Christopher Smith of AL.com is providing college football analysis for the Las Vegas Review-Journal. Follow @csmithSEC on Twitter.