Ghost of NBA Christmas Past likes betting unders

The Ghost of Christmas NBA (games) Past is a big under bettor.

The under is 38-22-1 (63.3 percent) on the holiday since 2005 and has been a profitable proposition in 13 of the last 14 years.

Betting under on the early Christmas Day games — that tipoff between 9:05 a.m. and 2:05 p.m. PST — has been an especially sweet stocking stuffer, going 27-11 (71 percent).

“We know people will look to bet the under, especially that 9 a.m. spot,” said Jeff Sherman, Westgate sportsbook vice president of risk. “That’s really early. Teams generally don’t play that early. Your body clock isn’t used to it.”

Celtics-Raptors, 9:05 a.m.

The total is 212½ for the Christmas morning matchup between the Celtics and Raptors.

Boston, a 3-point road favorite, is one of the NBA’s best under teams at 16-11 and is a league-leading 17-8-2 ATS.

Both teams have surprised this season. The Celtics, after losing Kyrie Irving and Al Horford, lead the Atlantic Division with a 20-7 record. The defending NBA champion Raptors are 21-9 (18-12 ATS) after losing Kawhi Leonard.

“Toronto is more of a surprise to me than Boston,” Sherman said. “Boston’s chemistry is better with (Kemba) Walker than it was with Irving. You see the team more from two years ago (that went to the Eastern Conference finals) than last year.

“Toronto having the record it does after losing Kawhi is a testament to Nick Nurse’s coaching with the players he’s got.”

Both teams are banged up. The Raptors are expected to be without Pascal Siakam, Marc Gasol and Norman Powell. The Celtics will be missing Marcus Smart, but Gordon Hayward is expected to return from a sore foot after missing three games.

Bucks-76ers, 11:35 a.m.

Milwaukee, which has the NBA’s best record at 27-4, is a 2½-point road favorite at Philadelphia and the total is 220.

The Bucks have won 21 of their last 22 games behind reigning NBA MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Sixers (22-10) have lost three of their last five.

On Westgate’s NBA games of the year, Philadelphia was listed as a 3½-point favorite, but that line has flipped because of the Bucks’ dominance.

“Giannis is even better than he was last year now that he stretches the floor even more making 3-point shots,” Sherman said. “They’re the clear third choice behind the Lakers and Clippers, though they still don’t command the popularity at the books that the Lakers and Clippers do.

“The Lakers have the lowest odds, but I don’t have them rated the best team. Right now, I have the Clippers and Bucks really close. The Lakers are a shade behind those two.”

The Lakers and Clippers are 5-2 co-favorites to win the 2020 NBA title and the Bucks are the 7-2 third choice.

Rockets-Warriors, 2:05 p.m.

Houston, on a 7-0 cover streak on Christmas, is an 11-point road favorite at Golden State, which is on an 0-6 spread slide on the holiday and dead last in the Western Conference at 7-24. The total is 226½.

Lakers-Clippers, 5:05 p.m.

The Lakers are 2-point favorites over the Clippers and the total is 222½. The Lakers own the NBA’s second-best record (24-6) despite losing their last three games.

LeBron James missed Sunday’s 128-104 loss to Denver, but he and Anthony Davis are both expected to play in the rematch of the season opener won by the Clippers, 112-102.

The Clippers (22-10) have lost three of their last five.

“At full strength, I still have the Clippers rated higher than the Lakers,” Sherman said. “A lot of the Lakers’ record had to with the early part of their schedule being really soft. And the Clippers are not playing Kawhi in back-to-back (games).”

Pelicans-Nuggets, 7:35 p.m.

Denver is a 9½-point home favorite over New Orleans and the total is 218½. The Nuggets are the NBA’s top under team at 18-11. The Pelicans have one of the league’s worst spread records at 11-19-1.

More Betting: Follow at reviewjournal.com/betting.

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.