Half-point hook key for Ravens-Steelers

It seems to be one of the surest bets in the NFL. When the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers tangle, the game comes down to the final possession.

Both games this season and five of the past six regular-season meetings between the bitter AFC North rivals were decided by three points each. An exception was the Steelers' 23-14 win in the AFC Championship Game two years ago.

Pittsburgh, a 3- to 3½-point favorite over Baltimore today, is a healthy and rested team off the bye week. The Ravens hit the road on wild-card weekend and throttled the Kansas City Chiefs, 30-7.

It has been a bizarre season for the Steelers, beginning with quarterback Ben Roethlisberger's suspension, but they have overcome plenty of adversity to get within two victories of reaching another Super Bowl.

This is Roethlisberger's type of big stage, and he usually rises to the occasion with his uncanny knack for buying extra time in the pocket and making plays.

Baltimore's Joe Flacco has quietly continued to develop into a top-shelf quarterback. He has won four playoff games, all on the road.

The Ravens possess a solid one-two punch at running back. Ray Rice's versatility makes him the focal point of the offense, and Willis McGahee's power running is effective in short-yardage situations and when the Ravens have the lead and are looking to burn time off the clock.

They will be severely tested by safety Troy Polamalu and a Steelers defense that ranks as the league's best unit against the run.

In this case, familiarity breeds contempt and competitiveness -- and split wagering.

Las Vegas Hilton sports book director Jay Kornegay said the game has generated solid two-way action from the minute it was posted.

"The two games this season and their history tells us this should be close," Kornegay said. "The Steelers and Ravens mirror one another in many key categories. This is the definition of a 3-point game."

If betting on Baltimore, get the 3½ points at minus-120. Those wagering on Pittsburgh should be leery of laying more than 3. The total is 37.

A look at today's NFC matchup:

■ Green Bay at Atlanta (-2): We've seen this act before. The Packers played a thriller in Atlanta on Nov. 28, when Aaron Rodgers engineered a last-minute drive to tie the game. But the Falcons came up with a huge kickoff return that led to Matt Bryant's 47-yard field goal with nine seconds left in a 20-17 win.

Rodgers and counterpart Matt Ryan were efficient in that game while struggling to produce points. The line on the rematch -- which has been as low as 1 and as high as 3 -- is basically identical to the previous meeting, but the total of 43½ is about three points lower than the regular-season game.

The Packers are hoping they found lightning in a bottle late in the season with the emergence of rookie running back James Stark in last week's 21-16 victory at Philadelphia. Was it a one-game flash in the pan, or is Starks capable of giving Green Bay a stout running attack?

Starks was a college standout but missed his senior year at Buffalo and was hampered by a hamstring injury most of this season.

Green Bay was widely criticized for not addressing its running back situation when it lost Ryan Grant to injury, but maybe Starks is the answer.

"The timing was perfect for Starks to step up, giving the Packers a whole new dimension that was missing most of the season," Kornegay said. "Atlanta is tremendous at home, and it's a healthy and extremely confident team.

"There's a chance by kickoff that this game closes Atlanta minus-3. The total moved toward the under quite a bit early in the week, then started to bounce back up."

Rodgers got a much-needed playoff win for his resume last week. Ryan is steady and deadly at home.

The quarterbacks get all the pregame publicity, but the key to winning could prove to be Starks or Falcons running back Michael Turner.

Brian Blessing, host of Sportsbook Radio on ESPN (1100 AM, 98.9 FM), can be reached at blessproductions@yahoo.com.