Handicapper’s tip: Don’t bet on Kyle Larson to win Daytona 500

Kyle Larson dominated the NASCAR Cup Series last season, he’s favored to retain his title this season, and he’s on the pole for Sunday’s Daytona 500.

But SportsLine.com analyst Micah Roberts is staying far away from Larson for NASCAR’s premier event.

“He’s never had a top-five (finish) at Daytona,” Roberts said. “He just hasn’t had the chops that he has on every other track. It’s pretty extraordinary, his lack of success.”

Larson is the +471 favorite at Circa Sports to successfully defend his Cup Series title, but he is 21-1 to win the Daytona 500, trailing seven drivers and tied with six others.

Most Las Vegas sportsbooks have Larson at odds of 10-1 or lower, but Circa’s prices often reflect sharper action than other books.

NASCAR is unveiling its Next Gen car this season, and handicappers will have to monitor how it impacts racing compared to past setups, Roberts said. For now, he’s going to stick with what he knows.

“I’m just going off guys who are really good racers,” he said.

Roberts narrows the Daytona field to four top contenders — Ryan Blaney (15-1 at Circa), Denny Hamlin (11-1 at Circa), Brad Keselowski (16-1 at BetMGM and the Golden Nugget) and Joey Logano (13-1 at Boyd Gaming and Circa).

Hamlin is a three-time Daytona 500 champion, and Logano won in 2015. Last year, Logano and Keselowski wrecked while battling for the lead on the final lap, allowing Michael McDowell to slip past and win as a shocking 100-1 long shot.

That is the nature of racing at Daytona — and betting on it — Roberts said.

“Daytona, Talladega, all the superspeedways, they’re always crapshoots to begin with,” he said. “And now you have the new car.”

Looking for a McDowell-style long shot, Roberts is targeting Chase Briscoe (50-1 at Caesars Sportsbook, the Golden Nugget and the South Point) and Harrison Burton (80-1 at the Golden Nugget).

McDowell is 40-1 at several sportsbooks to retain his title.

Las Vegans Kurt Busch and Kyle Busch are not at the top of Roberts’ list, but they should be contenders, he said. The Busches are each 21-1 at Circa. Kurt Busch won the Daytona 500 in 2017, and Kyle has never won.

Roberts noted that the Busches should be working together this season. Kurt Busch races for former NBA star Michael Jordan’s 23XI team, which is aligned with the Joe Gibbs team Kyle Busch drives for.

“They’re essentially teammates for the first time since their dad was making cars for them at the Bullring” at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, Roberts said.

Another Las Vegan, Noah Gragson, 23, will make his Cup Series debut Sunday. He is 200-1 at the Westgate SuperBook.

Contact Jim Barnes at jbarnes@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-0277. Follow @JimBarnesLV on Twitter.