Is there any reason to doubt Rodgers, Packers in NFC North?

What once seemed to be a chaotic NFC North race came into sharp focus when Aaron Rodgers ended months of offseason drama and declared that he would return to Green Bay this season.

With Rodgers at quarterback, the Packers are clearly the best team in the division and a Super Bowl contender. It’s as simple as that.

“The value of Rodgers is just so significant, and nobody else in that division has what the Packers have with him,” Circa sportsbook manager Chris Bennett said.

The Packers are -215 favorites at Circa to win the NFC North, and their season win total is 11 (under -115). They are -330 to make the playoffs and +1,150 to win the Super Bowl, behind only Tampa Bay (+425) and Kansas City (+500).

BetMGM reported taking a $19,000 bet to win $266,000 on the Packers to win the Super Bowl at 14-1, placed at the Bellagio on Aug. 22.

Rodgers was named The Associated Press NFL MVP last season after leading Green Bay to a 13-3 record before a loss to eventual Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay in the NFC championship game.

In an era in which Tom Brady is still winning Super Bowls at 43, Rodgers seemed to have many more productive years ahead of him at 37.

Then the rumors started. Rodgers wanted out of Green Bay, with a beef dating back at least to the drafting of quarterback Jordan Love in the first round in 2020. The Denver Broncos’ odds dropped for a time on reports they might trade for Rodgers.

In July, the Westgate SuperBook took the Packers’ season win total and division odds off the board after it got word from what it called “a reliable source” that Rodgers would retire.

A few days later, Rodgers announced that he would play this season under a restructured contract that clears the way for him to be moved out of Green Bay next year.

Red Rock Resort sportbook director Chuck Esposito views that “last dance” scenario as a potential stumbling block for the Packers this season.

“There’s a lot of added pressure on Green Bay this year because of the entire soap opera that the offseason was,” he said. “… The big question mark would be, what if they struggle? What if they’re off to a 2-2 start or they’re 3-2 or 4-4? You just wonder what the whole dynamic becomes.

“On the flip side, they’re good enough to win the Super Bowl.”

Here’s a quick glance at the rest of the division:

Minnesota Vikings

— Season win total: 9 (u-120)

— Make playoffs (yes/no): +120/-140

— Super Bowl odds: 40-1

During the Rodgers retirement rumors, Circa briefly made the Vikings the +125 favorites to win the division, and they’re the most likely team to challenge the Packers’ supremacy with Rodgers.

Bennett notes that during a disappointing 7-9 season, one of the Vikings’ wins was a 28-22 victory at Green Bay.

“That was a really impressive result for them,” he said. “But, yeah, I can’t get them really anywhere close to the Packers as long as Rodgers is healthy.”

Chicago Bears

— Season win total: 7½ (u-135)

— Make playoffs (yes/no): +265/-315

— Super Bowl odds: 125-1

There’s one question among Bears fans or those looking to bet on or against Chicago this season: When will Justin Fields start at quarterback?

For now, the first-round pick is backing up veteran Andy Dalton, but Esposito said that can’t last for long.

“Unless the Bears are 4-0, I think we see Fields extremely fast,” Esposito said. “I think there’s a possibility we see him at halftime of Week 1.”

Detroit Lions

— Season win total: 4½ (o-135)

— Make playoffs (yes/no): +795/-1,200

— Super Bowl odds: 500-1

It’s difficult to find anyone to say anything nice about the Lions. Sharp bettors regard new coach Dan Campbell as a disaster in waiting with his apparent “old school” mindset and a quarterback the Rams rejected in Jared Goff.

“Detroit is clearly the fourth-best team in the NFC North right now,” Esposito said.

Best bet

Lions over 4½ wins (-135): Let’s be contrarian. Campbell’s approach will probably work best in his first season, offering a fresh voice and enthusiasm. The Lions have winnable home games against Cincinnati, Philadelphia, Chicago and Arizona, and the Packers could be resting their starters in Week 18 at Detroit.

Contact Jim Barnes at jbarnes@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-0277. Follow @JimBarnesLV on Twitter.