Jim Barnes’ college forecast: Cincinnati favored for a reason

Bettors should ask a simple question before wagering on Cincinnati vs. Notre Dame: Why are the Bearcats favored?

Cincinnati is ranked slightly higher (No. 7 to No. 9), but both teams are undefeated. Cincinnati struggled to rally past Indiana in its last outing, while Notre Dame beat then-No. 18 Wisconsin 41-13 at a neutral site last week.

The game will be played at Notre Dame Stadium in South Bend, Indiana. And, let me stress, one team is Notre Dame and the other is Cincinnati.

The public will look up at the betting board and see the unbeaten Fighting Irish facing a team that plays in the American Athletic Conference. Sportsbooks aren’t in the business of giving away free money, so, again, why is Cincinnati favored?

Well, the answer is that the Bearcats are better, and they have been waiting for this moment to mint themselves as College Football Playoff contenders.

Notre Dame is a soft 4-0. The Irish’s overtime victory over Florida State in the season opener looks worse by the week. Notre Dame was lucky to escape with a three-point win at home over Toledo, and the final margin of victory against Wisconsin was heavily inflated by a kickoff return for a touchdown and two interception returns for scores in the fourth quarter.

Cincinnati’s resume has its own holes. The Bearcats blew out Miami (Ohio) and Murray State but trailed Indiana in the fourth quarter before rallying for a 38-24 win.

Cincinnati has had a week off and should bring its best game to South Bend. Notre Dame has had a knack for winning close games, and might do so again Saturday, but I’ll bet that the sportsbooks aren’t giving the public a gift by making the Irish underdogs.

Lay -1½ with Cincinnati.

Here are four other plays for Saturday:

— Troy +6½: Another “this line doesn’t look right” play. The Trojans inexplicably lost as 23½-point favorites last week to Louisiana-Monroe. But now they’re getting less than a touchdown at South Carolina of the mighty SEC? Take the points with the Trojans.

— Kent State -16½: The Golden Flashes got flushed by Maryland last week and did not cover +14½ for me, but Kent State is in a great spot this week hosting Bowling Green, which should still be woozy after its upset of Minnesota as a 25-1 underdog. If Kent State fails us here, you’ll never see that name again in this space.

— Texas Christian +5: A classic situational spot for the Horned Frogs, who welcome a Texas team that not only comes off a home run effort in a 70-35 win over Texas Tech but could be looking ahead to the Red River Rivalry game with Oklahoma. Coach Gary Patterson should have TCU ready for its best game after a loss to rival Southern Methodist.

— Wisconsin -1½: As discussed above, the Badgers’ loss to Notre Dame wasn’t nearly as bad as it looked. Michigan has bullied its first four opponents, but the Wolverines won’t be able to do that to Wisconsin.

— Last week: 2-3

— Season: 10-10

Contact Jim Barnes at jbarnes@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-0277. Follow @JimBarnesLV on Twitter.