Keep it basic: Super defense gives Broncos edge
Despite all of the hype that mainly involves Cam Newton, Peyton Manning and the hundreds of propositions, for me, the Super Bowl 50 matchup comes down to the basics. One of those tried and true, basic principles is that defense usually wins big games, and this Denver defense is something special.
Although Carolina has an excellent defense — and the Panthers would not be here otherwise — the Broncos are better in each significant category, in addition to boasting the top-ranked total defense in the NFL.
Carolina running back Jonathan Stewart and Newton, a dual-threat quarterback, are the primary running threats, but they will have little success against a Denver defense that allowed only 81.3 yards rushing per game. The Broncos also ranked fourth in scoring defense, while the Panthers ranked sixth in total and scoring defense.
Newton might have an equally difficult time passing, because Denver's secondary is hard hitting and plays the best coverage I've seen in a long time. New England quarterback Tom Brady can attest to how strong the Denver pass rush is with DeMarcus Ware and Von Miller leading the attack.
The better overall defensive team has won 40 of the past 49 Super Bowls. Teams ranked No. 1 in total defense have appeared in the Super Bowl 11 times, winning nine of those games straight up.
The Broncos are 5½-point underdogs, and this role for them is rare. Denver was an underdog only five times this season, going 4-1 straight up and 4-0-1 against the spread.
Although I don't believe much in revenge angles, Denver was destroyed 43-8 by Seattle two years ago in the Super Bowl, and that embarrassment will instill some extra motivation, especially with Manning possibly playing in the final game of his historic career.
I will be taking the points as insurance, since anything can happen and often does in this business of predicting the future, but I think Denver will win. I'll make a smaller play on the Broncos on the money line at around plus-180.
— Las Vegas handicapper Doug Fitz (Systemplays.com) won the Review-Journal NFL Challenge this season with a 47-37-1 record against the spread.
