MARCH MADNESS BAD BEATS BLOG: Early NCAA Tournament line moves

After two years, it’s time again for Selection Sunday.

The NCAA Tournament bracket will be revealed today, and Las Vegas sportsbooks will post betting lines on the opening games soon afterward.

But first, there are five more conference tournaments to be decided, and at least one potential “bid thief” lurking. If Cincinnati wins the American Athletic final, then it will earn a bid that would have gone to a bubble team. Of course, the Bearcats will have to get through No. 7-ranked Houston, which is a heavy favorite.

The Atlantic 10 finalists, St. Bonaventure and Virginia Commonwealth, are projected to make the NCAA field, but they’ll feel a lot better if they can secure an automatic bid.

Refresh this blog throughout the day. We’ll be here for all of the conference tournament games, along with the release of the NCAA Tournament field and the opening betting lines.

UPDATES

5:25 p.m.: That’s it for today. Thanks for reading. We’ll have full coverage of the NCAA Tournament all week on reviewjournal.com.

5:21 p.m.: Here are some early line moves at Circa:

First Four

Appalachian State from PK to -3 vs. Norfolk State

South Region

Baylor from -25½ to -26½ vs. Hartford

North Carolina from -1 to -2 vs. Wisconsin

North Texas from +8 to +7 vs. Purdue

Midwest Region

San Diego State from -2 to -3 vs. Syracuse

Houston from -18 to -19½ vs. Cleveland State

West Region

Ohio from +10½ to +9 vs. Virginia

Oregon from -5 to -6 vs. Virginia Commonwealth

East Region

LSU from PK to -1 vs. St. Bonaventure

Colorado from -4½ to -5½ vs. Georgetown

Florida State from -10 to -11½ vs. UNC Greensboro

Alabama from -16 to -17 vs. Iona

3:59 p.m.: Circa Sports has posted opening lines on all the games, excluding the First Four

THURSDAY

First Four

West Region

16. Appalachian State (PK, 136½) vs. Norfolk State

11. Wichita State (-2, 139½) vs. Drake

East Region

16. Texas Southern (-1, 134½) vs. Mount St. Mary’s

11. Michigan State (-1½, 138½) vs. UCLA

FRIDAY

South Region

1. Baylor (-25½, total 142½) vs. 16. Hartford

8. North Carolina (-1, 139½) vs. 9. Wisconsin

5. Villanova (-6½, 137½) vs. 12. Winthrop

4. Purdue (-8, 126½) vs. 13. North Texas

6. Texas Tech (-4, 132½) vs. 11. Utah State

3. Arkansas (-9, 157½) vs. 14. Colgate

7. Florida (PK, 137½) vs. 10. Virginia Tech

2. Ohio State (-17, 154½) vs. 15. Oral Roberts

Midwest Region

1. Illinois (-23, 144½) vs. 16. Drexel

8. Loyola Chicago (-2, 127) vs. 9. Georgia Tech

5. Tennessee (-8½, 136) vs. 12. Oregon State

4. Oklahoma State (-9½, 146½) vs. 13. Liberty

6. San Diego State (-2, 137½) vs. 11. Syracuse

3. West Virginia (-12, 138½) vs. 14. Morehead State

7. Clemson vs. 10. Rutgers (-1, 129)

2. Houston (-18, 135½) vs. 15. Cleveland State

SATURDAY

West Region

1. Gonzaga (no line) vs. 16. Appalachian State/Norfolk State (First Four)

8. Oklahoma (-2, 141½) vs. 9. Missouri

5. Creighton (-8, 140½) vs. 12 UC Santa Barbara

4. Virginia (-10½, 132½) vs. 13. Ohio

6. Southern California (no line) vs. 11. Drake/Wichita State (First Four)

3. Kansas (-11, 140½) vs. 14. Eastern Washington

7. Oregon (-5, 138½) vs. 10. Virginia Commonwealth

2. Iowa (-15, 144) vs. 15. Grand Canyon

East Region

1. Michigan (no line) vs. 16. Mount St. Mary’s/Texas Southern (First Four)

8. LSU (PK, 144½) vs. 9. St. Bonaventure

5. Colorado (-4½, 138½) vs. 12. Georgetown

4. Florida State (-10, 146) vs. 13. UNC Greensboro

6. BYU (no line) vs. 11. Michigan State/UCLA (First Four)

3. Texas (-8, 140½) vs. 14. Abilene Christian

7. Connecticut (-3, 131½) vs. 10. Maryland

2. Alabama (-16, 143½) vs. Iona

3:37 p.m.: The East Region has been revealed (games played Saturday):

1. Michigan vs. 16. Mount St. Mary’s/Texas Southern (First Four)

8. LSU vs. 9. St. Bonaventure

5. Colorado vs. 12. Georgetown

4. Florida State vs. 13. UNC Greensboro

6. BYU vs. 11. Michigan State/UCLA (First Four)

3. Texas vs. 14. Abilene Christian

7. Connecticut vs. 10. Maryland

2. Alabama vs. Iona

3:29 p.m.: The Midwest Region has been revealed (games played Friday):

1. Illinois vs. 16. Drexel

8. Loyola Chicago vs. 9. Georgia Tech

5. Tennessee vs. 12. Oregon State

4. Oklahoma State vs. 13. Liberty

6. San Diego State vs. 11. Syracuse

3. West Virginia vs. 14. Morehead State

7. Clemson vs. 10. Rutgers

2. Houston vs. 15. Cleveland State

3:21 p.m.: The South Region has been revealed (games played Friday):

1. Baylor vs. 16. Hartford

8. North Carolina vs. 9. Wisconsin

5. Villanova vs. 12. Winthrop

4. Purdue vs. 13. North Texas

6. Texas Tech vs. 11. Utah State

3. Arkansas vs. 14. Colgate

7. Florida vs. 10. Virginia Tech

2. Ohio State vs. 15. Oral Roberts

3:14 p.m.: The West Region has been revealed (games played Saturday):

1. Gonzaga vs. 16. Appalachian State/Norfolk State (First Four)

8. Oklahoma vs. 9. Missouri

5. Creighton vs. 12 UC Santa Barbara

4. Virginia vs. 13. Ohio

6. Southern California vs. 11. Drake/Wichita State (First Four)

3. Kansas vs. 14. Eastern Washington

7. Oregon vs. 10. Virginia Commonwealth

2. Iowa vs. 15. Grand Canyon

3:06 p.m.: FINAL: Illinois 91, Ohio State 88 (OT). The No. 5 seed Buckeyes cover as 6½-point underdogs, but the No. 2 Illini win in overtime at -300 ML in the Big Ten final in Indianapolis. The game went over 148 in regulation. Illinois was +275 to win the tournament before it started. Ohio State hit a 3 at the buzzer to secure the cover (or loss) for everyone — many bettors would have pushed on 6.

2:39 p.m.: Going to overtime with Illinois and Ohio State tied at 77.

2:27 p.m.: Illinois is clinging to a 72-67 lead with 3:21 left in the second half. Ohio State briefly led 67-65 before a 7-0 Illinois run. The Illini are -650 on the live line (Ohio State +470). The spread (Illinois -6 or -6½) remains very much in doubt.

2:17 p.m.: FINAL: Houston 91, Cincinnati 54. The No. 2 seed Cougars romp as 13-point favorites, -1,000 ML against the No. 5 Bearcats in the American Athletic final in Fort Worth, Texas. The game goes over 135. Houston was -225 to win the tournament before it started. The Cougars were already projected as a top-three seed in the NCAA Tournament. Cincinnati missed a chance to be a “bid thief” and will not be in the field.

2:04 p.m.: Illinois is keeping Ohio State at bay. The Illini lead 57-46 with 11:51 left in the second half. Illinois is -6,000 on the live line (Ohio State +1,500), spread -11½, total 151½.

1:49 p.m.: Houston is going to win the American Athletic Conference title. The Cougars lead Cincinnati 64-38 with 11:43 left in the second half. The live line is turned off. Houston is -26½ on the live spread, total 144½. Georgetown and Oregon State scored bid-stealing upsets Saturday, but Cincinnati will not do the same.

1:29 p.m.: Second-half line: Illinois -2, total 79.

1:27 p.m.: HALFTIME: Illinois 40, Ohio State 35. First-half winners: Illinois -3½, over 70. The Buckeyes whittled down a double-digit deficit in the last two minutes of the half.

1:12 p.m.: Second-half line: Houston -4½, total 72½.

1:10 p.m.: HALFTIME: Houston 41, Cincinnati 27. First-half winners: Houston -7, over 63½. The last at-large team in the NCAA Tournament field can relax a bit with the Bearcats trailing by 14.

12:55 p.m.: That Ohio State bet is in trouble. Illinois leads the Buckeyes 22-9 with 11:46 left in the first half. The Illini are -1,800 on the live line (Ohio State +880), spread -13½, total 151½.

12:46 p.m.: The bubble teams appear safe today — for now. Houston leads Cincinnati 23-13 with 8:29 left in the first half. Cincinnati is the last potential “bid thief” that could earn an NCAA Tournament berth by winning the conference tourney when it would otherwise be out.

12:30 p.m.: Someone believes in the Buckeyes. BetMGM reported that a bettor in Las Vegas wagered $250,000 on Ohio State on the money line at +215 to win $537,500.

JUST IN:

One bettor in Las Vegas just placed a $250,000 wager on Ohio State ML (+215) 😮

The bet would win $537,500! pic.twitter.com/KA4BbGx5bp

— BetMGM 🦁 (@BetMGM) March 14, 2021

12:27 p.m.: The last game of the day is about to tip off:

— Illinois (-6½, 148, -300) vs. Ohio State (+250), 12:30 p.m.

12:13 p.m.: The next game is about to tip off:

— Houston (-13, 135, -1,000) vs. Cincinnati (+650), 12:15 p.m.

12:10 p.m.: FINAL: St. Bonaventure 74, Virginia Commonwealth 65. The No. 1 seed Bonnies secure an automatic NCAA Tournament bid, covering as 3-point favorites, -160 ML in the Atlantic 10 final in Dayton, Ohio. The game goes over 128½. Both teams have been projected to make the NCAA field, but VCU will probably sweat until the selection show.

12:05 p.m.: FINAL: Alabama 80, LSU 79. The No. 3 seed Tigers cover as 6-point underdogs, but the No. 1 Crimson Tide win at -260 ML in the SEC final in Nashville, Tennessee. The game goes just over 157. Alabama was +185 to win the tournament before it started. Both teams were safely in the NCAA Tournament field. LSU missed several shots to win the game in the final seconds.

11:31 a.m.: St. Bonaventure is headed for the Atlantic 10 title. The Bonnies lead VCU 46-34 with 11:26 left in the second half and are -4,000 on the live line (VCU +1,400), spread -12½, total 121½.

11:26 a.m.: Alabama is holding off LSU. The Crimson Tide lead 55-52 with 11:48 left in the second half and are -380 on the live line (LSU +290), spread -5½, total 157½.

10:56 a.m.: FINAL: Colgate 85, Loyola (Maryland) 72. The No. 2 seed Raiders earn an automatic NCAA Tournament bid, covering as 10½-point favorites, -600 ML against the No. 9 Greyhounds in the Patriot League final on Colgate’s home court in Hamilton, New York. The game goes over 148½. The Patriot is a one-bid league.

10:55 a.m.: Second-half lines:

VCU -½, total 68½

Alabama -3, total 83½

10:53 a.m.: HALFTIME: Alabama 40, LSU 37. First-half winners: Spread pushes on 3, over 74.

10:52 a.m.: HALFTIME: St. Bonaventure 32, VCU 25. First-half winners: St. Bonaventure -1½, under 59½.

10:32 a.m.: Alabama has the early edge in the SEC final. The Crimson Tide lead LSU 24-19 with 7:23 left in the first half and are -400 on the live line (LSU +300), spread -7½, total 153½.

10:28 a.m.: Colgate is looking good for the NCAA Tournament. The Raiders lead Loyola (Maryland) 60-48 with 11:03 left in the second half. Colgate is -10,000 on the live line (Loyola +2,800), spread -13½, total 153½.

9:59 a.m.: Second-half line: Colgate -5½, total 79½.

9:57 a.m.: HALFTIME: Colgate 38, Loyola (Maryland) 33. First-half winners: Loyola +6, over 69½. Loyola made three free throws after two fouls in the final minute to cover the first-half spread and push the total over.

9:56 a.m.: The next games are about to tip off:

— St. Bonaventure (-3, 128½, -160) vs. Virginia Commonwealth (+140), 10 a.m.

— Alabama (-6, 157, -260) vs. LSU (+220), 10 a.m.

9:40 a.m.: The first game is already underway. Colgate holds a 27-21 lead with 5:13 left in the first half of the Patriot League final, played on Colgate’s home court in Hamilton, New York.

Four more games are coming today, followed by the reveal of the NCAA Tournament bracket and the opening betting lines.

9:30 a.m.: Here’s today’s scheduled, listed by conference:

AMERICAN ATHLETIC FINAL (at Fort Worth, Texas)

— Houston 91, Cincinnati 54

Full-game winners: Houston -13, over 135, Houston -1,000 ML

First-half winners: Houston -7, over 63½ (Houston 41-27)

Second-half winners: Houston -4½, over 72½ (Houston 50-27)

ATLANTIC 10 FINAL (at Dayton, Ohio)

— St. Bonaventure 74, Virginia Commonwealth 65

Full-game winners: St. Bonaventure -3, over 128½, St. Bonaventure -160 ML

First-half winners: St. Bonaventure -1½, under 59½ (St. Bonaventure 32-25)

Second-half winners: St. Bonaventure +½, over 68½ (St. Bonaventure 42-40)