Monday NFL doubleheader betting preview: 1 trend to know before kickoff

NFL underdogs of 5½ points or more are 13-2 against the spread this season with nine outright wins, four of which came Sunday.

Sharp bettors are banking on underdogs to extend that trend in a “Monday Night Football” doubleheader.

The Jaguars were 5½-point underdogs at Buffalo in the 4:30 p.m. opener before the consensus line dropped to 5 on Monday and to as low as 4½ at Circa and the Westgate SuperBook.

The Commanders are consensus 7½-point underdogs at Cincinnati in the 5:15 p.m. second game.

“Most of the sharp money is on the two ’dogs,” South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews said. “The Jaguars, they took 6, and the Commanders, they took 7½.”

The Westgate SuperBook took sharp play early in the week on Washington +8.

South Point is the only book with the Bengals at -7, as they look to avoid an 0-3 start.

In Week 3, 0-2 teams are riding a 35-15-1 ATS streak against 1-1 teams, according to VSiN’s Steve Makinen. The 0-2 teams that qualified under the system went 5-1 straight up and ATS on Sunday, with Cincinnati fitting the formula Monday.

Jacksonville (0-2) and Tennessee (0-3) are the NFL’s only other winless teams. But the Jaguars don’t qualify for the system against a 2-0 Buffalo team.

Despite the sharp play on the underdogs, sportsbooks expect to need them to cover.

“Everything is rolling over to the Bills and Bengals,” Red Rock Resort sportsbook director Chuck Esposito said. “We’re definitely going to be Jags and Commanders fans.”

The Bengals are the most popular pick in the Circa Survivor contest, which pays $14.3 million to the winner. The $1,000-entry Survivor has seen its record field slashed from 14,266 to 1,630 after 2,244 more entries were eliminated Sunday. Of the remaining entries, 988 are on Cincinnati.

The consensus totals are 46½ for both games, with the Bills-Jaguars total up to 47 at the South Point.

“We had sharp action on the over Bills-Jaguars from 45½ to 46½,” Westgate SuperBook vice president of risk Jeff Sherman said.

Jacksonville is on a 5-1 under run, while Buffalo is on a 10-5 under streak.

Cincinnati, -7½ (even) at the Westgate SuperBook, was upset by the Patriots as a 7½-point home favorite in its season opener before losing 26-25 at Kansas City as a 6½-point road underdog in Week 2. The Bengals are the biggest favorites of NFL Week 3, which has seen underdogs go 7-7 straight-up and ATS.

“The public likes (Cincinnati quarterback) Joe Burrow,” Caesars Sportsbook head of U.S. trading Eric Fenstermaker said. “They don’t foresee the Bengals starting out 0-3.

“Just like most Mondays, we’ll need the ’dogs to hang around.”

Washington lost its opener 37-20 as a 4-point underdog at Tampa Bay before beating the Giants 21-18 as a 1½-point home favorite.

The Commanders are on an 8-2 over run. The Bengals are on an 8-3 over uptick.

Jacksonville lost 20-17 to the Dolphins in their opener but covered as a 3½-point road underdog. It lost 18-13 to the Browns in Week 2 as a 3-point home favorite.

The Bills beat the Cardinals 34-28 in their opener but failed to cover as 6½-point home favorites. Buffalo blew out the Dolphins 31-10 in Miami on Sept. 12 as a 2½-point underdog.

The Jaguars have won and covered their past two games against the Bills, but both games were in London.

“We’re going to need both underdogs,” SuperBook vice president Jay Kornegay said. “There’s just not a lot of appeal to the Jaguars and Commanders.”

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on X.