NFC team-by-team betting breakdown: contender or pretender?

Michael “The Wizard” Kipness has been a professional handicapper since 1987 and “Dr. Alan” Dumond is a two-time top-five finisher in the Westgate SuperContest.

The duo from wizardraceandsports.com analyzes all 16 NFC teams, designating each squad as a contender or a pretender.

NFC South

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The defending Super Bowl champions return all 22 starters on both sides of the ball. This is very rare in the modern era of free agency and player movement. Coach Bruce Arians, offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich and defensive coordinator Todd Bowles are back as well. The problem for defending Super Bowl champs is that history shows it is very hard to repeat. The last team to do so was the Patriots in the 2003 and 2004 seasons. Every opponent the Bucs face this year will have the game circled on their schedule and will be sure to bring their “A” game. Contender.

Atlanta Falcons: The Falcons finished 2020 with an ugly 4-12 record. An 0-5 start led to Falcons coach Dan Quinn and general manager Thomas Dimitroff being fired together. In steps new coach Arthur Smith, who was the Titans offensive coordinator, and new GM Terry Fontenot. Smith also will serve as the Falcons offensive coordinator. They decided to stick with 13-year veteran quarterback Matt Ryan instead of drafting a QB with their fourth overall pick. Atlanta used that selection on tight end Kyle Pitts, who many predict will be a superstar. The Falcons also made a good decision in hiring Dean Pees as their defensive coordinator. Pretender.

New Orleans Saints: QB Drew Brees is retired and coach Sean Payton has decided that Jameis Winston will start in Week 1. The problem is Jameis is famous for going into the NFL history books for all the wrong reasons. He’s the only member of the NFL’s exclusive 30/30 club for QBs who throw 30 interceptions and 30 touchdown passes in the same season. Winston, who threw 33 TDs and 30 picks in 2019 for the Bucs, is a high risk/high reward player. Unless Payton decides to take the air out the ball and give stud running back Alvin Kamara more touches. The defense should be good again, but this is a transition year for the Saints. Pretender.

Carolina Panthers: The Panthers finished 5-11 under rookie coach Matt Rhule last season. However, they were 9-7 ATS and were competitive in most of their games despite not having RB Christian McCaffrey for most of the season. Former Jets QB Sam Darnold replaces Teddy Bridgewater as Carolina’s starter this season after a less than stellar three-year stay in New York. The problem is that Darnold has always been a turnover-prone QB, going all the way back to his college playing days at Southern California. He will have better weapons and a better coach than he had on the Jets. But turnover-prone QBs usually continue to turn the ball over. Pretender.

NFC West

Seattle Seahawks: The Seahawks won the division last year with a 12-4 record, but they suffered an early exit in the playoffs at the hands of the Rams. Seattle’s 2020 season seemed to have a split personality. The defense was historically bad to start the season while QB Russell Wilson couldn’t have played better. But then the roles reversed, and the Seahawks defense played much better later in the season, while Wilson cooled off. There was a lot of offseason drama with Wilson trade rumors, but he’s back in Seattle for at least one more year with coach Pete Carroll. Contender.

Los Angeles Rams: Two years removed from a Super Bowl appearance, the Rams found their way back into the playoffs with a 10-6 record that was spearheaded by their top-ranked defense, which was led by NFL Defensive Player of the Year Aaron Donald and Pro Bowl cornerback Jalen Ramsey. The Rams beat the Seahawks in the wild-card playoff game but couldn’t get past the Packers in the divisional round. LA traded regressing QB Jared Goff to the Lions for QB Matthew Stafford, who must be elated to work with better weapons and a better coach in whiz kid Sean McVay. The loss of RB Cam Akers will hurt, but this team is loaded. Contender.

San Francisco 49ers: NFL stands for ”not for long” and the 49ers are exhibit A, stumbling from a 13-3 first-place finish and Super Bowl appearance in 2019 to a disappointing 6-10 last-place finish in 2020. From the penthouse to the outhouse in one year. The 49ers were ravaged by injuries to many of their star players last season, but that wasn’t their only problem. San Francisco was a terrible -11 in turnover differential. Only the Broncos were worse at -16. The 49ers will be getting many of their injured star players back this season. However, the big question is if veteran QB Jimmy Garoppolo will be back under center or if rookie QB Trey Lance, the No. 3 overall draft pick, takes over. Contender.

Arizona Cardinals: The coach/QB combo of Kliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray enter their third year together in Arizona and they have shown improvement each season, with the Cardinals climbing from a 5-10-1 record in 2019 to 8-8 in 2020. Whether they continue to improve might depend on the defensive side of the ball. Arizona lost cornerback Patrick Peterson on the back end, but it gained defensive end J.J. Watt on the front end and outside linebacker Chandler Jones will be coming back from injury, so the Cardinals have the potential to field a fierce pass rush this year. Pretender.

NFC East

Washington Football Team: In coach Ron Rivera’s first year in Washington, the Football Team won the NFC East with a 7-9 record and gave the Bucs all they could handle in their wild-card playoff game. The strength of this team is clearly its defense, led by defensive end Chase Young, last year’s Defensive Rookie of the Year. Washington’s defense limited seven of its last eight regular-season opponents to 20 points or less. The QB question is now settled, with 17-year veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick taking the reins. The defense will keep the Football Team competitive. Contender.

Dallas Cowboys: Mike McCarthy’s first year as Cowboys coach didn’t produce the results many were hoping for as Dallas finished with an underwhelming mark of 6-10. The losing record was largely the result of losing QB Dak Prescott to injury and a historically bad Cowboys defense that gave up up 30 or more points in eight games en route to allowing a franchise-record 479 points. New defensive coordinator Dan Quinn is a good hire to fix the defense. Contender.

New York Giants: Rookie coach Joe Judge led the Giants to a 6-10 record despite losing RB Saquon Barkley for the season due to injury and sophomore QB Daniel Jones continuing to be a human turnover machine. New York acquired wide receiver Kenny Golladay and drafted WR Kadarius Toney in the first round of the draft in an effort to bolster the offense. The big question is if Jones can take the next step in his development in his third season. Turnover-prone QBs like him are like tigers. They don’t change their stripes. Pretender.

Philadelphia Eagles: After a putrid 4-11-1 2020 season, coach Doug Pederson was given his pink slip out of the City of Brotherly Love a mere three years after winning the Super Bowl. QB Carson Wentz regressed horribly and was also shown the door. In steps new coach Nick Sirianni, the Colts offensive coordinator the last two years. This is a team in complete rebuilding mode. Sophomore QB Jalen Hurts is unproven and he could be given a quick hook if he struggles in favor of recently-acquired QB Gardner Minshew. Pretender.

NFC North

Green Bay Packers: The Packers put together another stellar season under coach Matt LaFleur, who has guided Green Bay to back-to-back 13-3 records and NFC championship game appearances, though it fell short of the Super Bowl each time. QB Aaron Rodgers had an MVP season and he was clearly motivated by the personal slight he felt when Packers GM Brian Gutekunst drafted QB Jordan Love in the first round in 2020 instead of taking a WR as Rodgers had requested. There was a lot of offseason drama with Rodgers wanting out of Green Bay, but he’s back. Contender.

Minnesota Vikings: The Vikings went 7-9 last season, when QB Kirk Cousins had a pretty good year and RB Dalvin Cook was the NFL’s second-leading rusher. Minnesota’s offense averaged more points (26.9) and yards per game (393.2) than any other Vikings squad in coach Mike Zimmer’s tenure. On the flip side, Zimmer called his defense the “worst he’s ever had” as they gave up a record number of points (29.7) and yards per game (393.2) under his watch. The defense should improve with the return of defensive end Danielle Hunter and LB Anthony Barr. The return of fans to U.S. Bank Stadium will re-establish a true home-field advantage that was lacking last year. Contender.

Chicago Bears: The Bears somehow sneaked into the expanded playoffs last year with an 8-8 record but were quickly shown the door by the Saints. Gone is QB Mitch Trubisky, who never lived up to the hype that came from being selected with the No. 2 overall pick in the 2017 NFL draft. Bears GM Ryan Pace was aggressive on draft day and traded up in the first round to get QB Justin Fields out of Ohio State with the 11th overall pick. However, it looks like it will be veteran QB Andy Dalton under center in Week 1. The Bears have a ways to go in their rebuild. Pretender.

Detroit Lions: Another forgettable losing season led to Lions coach Matt Patricia being fired. New coach Dan Campbell inherits a team in complete rebuilding mode. Detroit shipped QB Matthew Stafford out of town in favor of QB Jared Goff, who regressed terribly with the Rams last year. Pretender.

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.