NFL Betting Breakdown: Bruce Marshall

Houston (5-3) at Jacksonville (2-6)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/Total: Jaguars -2, 42½

Bruce Marshall’s analysis: The Jaguars hung around long enough to get a late cover last week at Kansas City. Jacksonville did establish Chris Ivory (107 yards rushing) as an infantry complement for the first time this season under just-promoted offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett. But one gets the feeling the Gus Bradley regime is on its final legs. Much has been made of Houston’s stark home-road pattern (5-0 straight up at home and 0-3 away). But the away losses have been at New England, Minnesota (when the Vikings were flying high) and in quarterback Brock Osweiler’s return to Denver. This is not as daunting a trip.

By the numbers: Texans coach Bill O’Brien is 4-0 versus Jacksonville, with a win margin of 14 points per game. … The home team is 7-0-1 against the spread in Houston games this season. … The Jaguars are 16-9 over the total in their past 25 games. … Jacksonville’s Blake Bortles has 14 touchdown passes and 10 interceptions.

Marshall’s pick: Texans, 26-20

Kansas City (6-2) at Carolina (3-5)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/Total: Panthers -3, 44½

Bruce Marshall’s analysis: Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith, who has been out with a concussion, has been cleared to play. Nonetheless, I’m willing to take a shot with Carolina, which has cobbled together back-to-back wins after its bye week and still has much of the core that made a late playoff run from well under .500 in 2014 and got all the way to the Super Bowl last season. The Panthers have rediscovered their pass rush, with 12 sacks in the past two games. The big play is still mostly absent from his arsenal, but Cam Newton (no interceptions in the past two games and only one in the past four) has been eliminating mistakes lately.

By the numbers: Newton has completed only 57.7 percent of his passes and been sacked 21 times. … The Chiefs are 7-2 ATS in their past nine on the regular-season road. … Kansas City is 7-2 under the total in its past nine regular-season games. … The Chiefs allow 18.9 points per game to rank No. 9 in the NFL in scoring defense. … Carolina ranks 23rd in scoring defense by allowing 25.8 points.

Marshall’s pick: Panthers, 24-19

Denver (6-3) at New Orleans (4-4)

Time/TV: 10 a.m., KLAS (8)

Line/Total: Saints -3, 49

Bruce Marshall’s analysis: It’s all starting to catch up with the defending Super Bowl champions. Free agency losses. Injuries (running back C.J. Anderson, cornerback Aqib Talib and defensive end Derek Wolfe). Quarterback inexperience (the Broncos have lost to Matt Ryan, Philip Rivers and Derek Carr). Lack of production and poor field position on offense are hurting the quality Denver defense. Meanwhile, after their 0-3 start, the Saints have evened their record, and now a couple of key players are returning on defense. Plus, Drew Brees is in tune with his new group of receivers.

By the numbers: New Orleans ranks No. 1 in total offense (434.5 yards per game) and No. 2 in scoring (30.3). … The Saints are 5-0 ATS in their past five games. … Brees is 5-0 ATS as an underdog this season and 11-3 since last year. … New Orleans is 0-2 as a home favorite. … Brees ranks No. 2 in completion percentage (69.7) and has 21 touchdown passes. … The Saints are 26-15 over the total in their past 41 games. … The Broncos are 8-3-1 ATS away since last season.

Marshall’s pick: Saints, 31-24

Los Angeles (3-5) at New York Jets (3-6)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/Total: Jets -1½, 40

Bruce Marshall’s analysis: It’s hard to make a case for either team, but we’ll try. The possible absence of Ryan Fitzpatrick, a game-time decision, on top of Geno Smith’s injury means it could be Bryce Petty at quarterback for the Jets. Given the alternatives, Petty might not be a bad idea. Meanwhile, Rams coach Jeff Fisher could be tempted to give Roman Gabriel a call, with the offense having stalled behind Case Keenum and with rookie Jared Goff still a risky alternative. Even if Los Angeles running back Todd Gurley was finding room to run, the stout Jets rush defense presents a stiff blockade.

By the numbers: New York is on a 4-1-1 ATS run at home. … Fisher is 19-8-1 under the total in his past 28 games. … The Rams rank 32nd in scoring offense at 16.3 points per game. … Keenum has nine touchdown passes and 11 interceptions.

Marshall’s pick: Jets, 23-17

Atlanta (6-3) at Philadelphia (4-4)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/Total: Falcons -1½, 50½

Bruce Marshall’s analysis: It’s not September anymore. NFL defenses now have a better read on Philadelphia rookie QB Carson Wentz, who pitched with Greg Maddux-like accuracy in the first month but whose 2-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio has become inverted over the past four games. The boo-birds in Philadelphia have been clearing their throats as the sagging Eagles (1-4 in their past five) risk falling below .500 with another loss. Meanwhile, Atlanta has stopped the talk of a rerun of last year’s fade with back-to-back victories over Green Bay and Tampa Bay.

By the numbers: Matt Ryan leads the league in passing yards (2,980) and touchdowns (23). … Ryan has fired seven touchdowns with no picks in the past two games. … Atlanta is 8-1 over the total this year. … The Falcons are 5-0 ATS on the road. … The Eagles are 3-0 ATS at home.

Marshall’s pick: Falcons, 31-24

Minnesota (5-3) at Washington (4-3-1)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/Total: Redskins -2½, 41½

Bruce Marshall’s analysis: Word from the Twin Cities is Adrian Peterson might be a few weeks from availability. He can’t come back soon enough for a Vikings offense that might as well have disappeared along with Hillary Clinton’s 30,000 emails, especially a non-Peterson running attack producing 2.6 yards per carry. Even respected offensive coordinator Norv Turner threw up his hands in frustration and resigned last week. Going into their bye, the Redskins had gained 400-plus yards in three straight, Kirk Cousins had 759 yards passing while hitting 72 percent in his past two, and the pass rush collected 14 sacks in the preceding four games. Recent form favors Washington.

By the numbers: The Redskins are 4-1-1 straight up and 5-1 ATS in their past six. … Washington is 11-2 over the total in its past 13. … Minnesota ranks No. 1 in scoring defense by allowing 15.8 points per game. … The Vikings have lost their past three after coach Mike Zimmer had covered 19 of 22.

Marshall’s pick: Redskins, 27-13

Green Bay (4-4) at Tennessee (4-5)

Time/TV: 10 a.m., KVVU (5)

Line/Total: Packers -2½, 49½

Bruce Marshall’s analysis: Green Bay is likely to turn down Tennessee’s request to wear Jacksonville or Cleveland uniforms, as the Titans have won in Nashville versus no other teams since 2013. All does not seem right with the Packers, still with troubling injuries at cornerback and running back, and rumors resurfacing of a rift between Aaron Rodgers and coach Mike McCarthy. But Green Bay, which would fall below .500 with a loss, has been in plenty of must-win situations in recent years. Despite Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota progressing on the learning curve, his two big mistakes in the second half at San Diego cost Tennessee last week.

By the numbers: Rodgers is hearing criticism, but he has 20 touchdown passes and five interceptions. … The Packers are 0-2 ATS as road favorites. … The Titans went over the total in their past six games. … Tennessee is 1-4 ATS as a host this year and 5-15-1 in its past 21 in Nashville.

Marshall’s pick: Packers, 34-26

Chicago (2-6) at Tampa Bay (3-5)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/Total: Bears -2½, 46

Bruce Marshall’s analysis: There is bad news for a Buccaneers revival. Tampa Bay has lost and failed to cover each of its four home games. On the other hand, the Chicago investment in youth is beginning to pay dividends, with players such as running back Jordan Howard, center Cody Whitehair, defensive end Jonathan Bullard and linebacker Leonard Floyd producing with greater consistency. Jay Cutler played with noticeable purpose in his return to the starting lineup against the rugged Minnesota defense. The Buccaneers’ ground game and defense are evaporating.

By the numbers: Cutler completed 20 of 31 passes for 252 yards and a touchdown in the Bears’ 20-10 victory over the Vikings on Oct. 31. … The Bears are 0-4 ATS away this year, but they were 5-2-1 in that role last year, including a win at Tampa Bay. … Chicago is 6-2-1 under the total in its past nine. … The Bears rank 31st in scoring offense at 16.4 points per game. … The Buccaneers are 0-4 ATS at home.

Marshall’s pick: Bears, 31-20

Miami (4-4) at San Diego (4-5)

Time: 1:05 p.m.

Line/Total: Chargers -4, 48½

Bruce Marshall’s analysis: The Dolphins finally hit the road again after a rare four straight at home. That home cooking allowed Miami to stabilize its offensive line and running attack. San Diego has improved on the ground as well, with Melvin Gordon motoring for 196 yards last week against the Titans, and he now has nine rushing touchdowns after getting zero in his disappointing rookie season.

By the numbers: With a big boost by Jay Ajayi, Miami’s rush offense has produced 222, 256 and 137 yards in the past three games, all wins. … The Dolphins’ quick defensive line had three sacks last week. … Chargers QB Philip Rivers has been sacked 22 times. … Gordon is the league’s No. 3 rusher with 768 yards. … San Diego is 8-2 over the total in its past 10 games. … The Chargers are 3-1 ATS at home this year, but 5-12 ATS at Qualcomm Stadium since mid-2014.

Marshall’s pick: Dolphins, 27-26

San Francisco (1-7) at Arizona (3-4-1)

Time: 1:25 p.m.

Line/Total: Cardinals -14, 48

Bruce Marshall’s analysis: This is an opportunity for Arizona to gain ground, with NFC West-leading Seattle playing at New England. Cardinals running back David Johnson was way too much for the laboring San Francisco defense in the first meeting, rushing for 157 yards and adding 38 yards receiving. The quarterbacks for that one were Drew Stanton and Blaine Gabbert. Now, it’s Carson Palmer versus Colin Kaepernick. The Cardinals are missing several key players, but the 49ers still lack the playmakers to keep pace.

By the numbers: The San Francisco defense has yielded an opposing 100-yard rusher in an NFL-record seven straight games. … Arizona’s Johnson is fourth in the league with 705 yards rushing. … The 49ers are 0-7 straight up and ATS since a season-opening win over the Rams. … San Francisco has lost its past three games by 18, 17 and 29 points. … The Cardinals are 4-1 straight up and ATS in the past five in the series.

Marshall’s pick: Cardinals, 37-16

Dallas (7-1) at Pittsburgh (4-4)

Time/TV: 1:25 p.m., KVVU (5)

Line/Total: Steelers -2½, 50

Bruce Marshall’s analysis: Pittsburgh’s defense presents a much tougher challenge for Cowboys rookies Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott. The Steelers are famished after three straight losses. But Ben Roethlisberger showed some rust last week at Baltimore while lacking his familiar play-extension capability. He probably will be better this week. But Prescott and Elliott are tough to deal with when supported by Dallas’ high-quality offensive line, savvy tight end Jason Witten and slot receiver Cole Beasley. The balance on offense is helping the better-than-expected Dallas defense.

By the numbers: Still undefeated ATS at 7-0-1, Dallas is worth a shot as an underdog (3-0-1 this year.) … Elliott is the NFL’s rushing leader with 891 yards. … The Cowboys rank 10th in total defense, and the Steelers rank 24th. … Pittsburgh is 10-3-1 ATS in its past 14 regular-season games at Heinz Field.

Marshall’s pick: Cowboys, 24-22

Seattle (5-2-1) at New England (7-1)

Time/TV: 5:30 p.m., KSNV (3)

Line/Total: Patriots -7½, 49

Bruce Marshall’s analysis: A rematch of the down-to-the-wire Super Bowl two years ago, when Malcolm Butler intercepted Russell Wilson at the goal line. But there’s no Marshawn Lynch for Seattle this season, and the Seahawks are 1-2-1 straight up on the road. Wilson was bothered by early ankle and knee injuries before busting loose Monday versus Buffalo. New England has armed itself with tight end Martellus Bennett, and Tom Brady is on a mission, with four straight wins and covers since his return, all victories by double digits. Former Patriots coach Pete Carroll (1997 to 1999; replaced by Bill Belichick) is unlikely to enjoy this visit to his old haunts.

By the numbers: The Seahawks rank No. 3 in scoring defense, allowing 16.8 points per game. … Seattle is 9-3-1 as a regular-season underdog with Wilson. … Brady has 12 touchdown passes with no interceptions in four games. …. Belichick is 8-2-3 ATS in his past 13 at home.

Marshall’s pick: Patriots, 30-16

Cincinnati (3-4-1) at New York Giants (5-3)

Time/TV: 5:30 p.m. Monday, ESPN

Line/Total: Bengals -1, 48

Bruce Marshall’s analysis: The Bengals have failed to cover their past six games away from home. Meanwhile, the Giants are hitting their stride, with three straight wins and covers, during which the improved New York defense has six interceptions and Odell Beckham Jr. has four touchdown catches. Andy Dalton and stellar wide receiver A.J. Green will do damage for the Bengals, but Cincinnati has not regained the chemistry that vanished in last season’s playoff loss to the Steelers. Eli Manning, with four touchdown passes, is on a good streak.

By the numbers: Green is the league leader with 59 receptions and ranks No. 2 with 896 yards, but he has only three touchdowns. … Cincinnati is 2-7-1 ATS in its past 10 regular-season games. … The Giants are on a 3-0-1 ATS run.

Marshall’s pick: Giants, 27-20