NFL Betting Breakdown: Doug Fitz
Houston (9-6) at Tennessee (8-7)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Titans -3, 40
Doug Fitz’s analysis: This is one of several games with no playoff implications. Houston has won the AFC South and cannot improve its No. 4 seed. Tennessee is out of the playoffs. The Texans are the phoniest of all the playoff teams. Their so-called success is mostly by virtue of playing in the weakest division in the NFL. Tom Savage has been mediocre since taking over at quarterback for Brock Osweiler, who was even worse. Titans quarterback Matt Cassel gets the start after Marcus Mariota’s season-ending leg injury last week. Cassel is an average backup, but he has a lot of experience. As a matter of pride, I think Tennessee will prevail at home.
By the numbers: In two games, Savage is 41-for-65 for 436 yards with no touchdowns and no interceptions. … The Titans’ DeMarco Murray is the league’s No. 3 rusher with 1,266 yards. … Houston, 6-8-1 against the spread, has a minus-7 turnover ratio.
Fitz’s pick: Titans by 6
Buffalo (7-8) at New York Jets (4-11)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Bills -3½, 42½
Doug Fitz’s analysis: The Jets have thrown in the towel, and it’s my guess that Todd Bowles is coaching — if you want to call it that — his final game for New York. Buffalo will start EJ Manuel at quarterback instead of Tyrod Taylor. After the Bills fired Rex Ryan, interim coach Anthony Lynn takes over. The Bills seem to be the reluctant right side only because of the Jets’ embarrassing lack of effort.
By the numbers: The Bills, who rank seventh in scoring offense at 25.9 points per game, lead the NFL in rushing with 170.8 yards per game. … The Jets’ turnover ratio is by far the league’s worst at minus-23. … The line has dropped since opening at 6.
Fitz’s pick: Bills by 6
Baltimore (8-7) at Cincinnati (5-9-1)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Pick, 41½
Doug Fitz’s analysis: The Ravens killed their playoff hopes last week by blowing a late lead and losing at Pittsburgh. The Bengals basically have been out of the playoff picture the entire season. Wide receiver Steve Smith probably will retire after this game, and the Ravens would like to send him out with a win. Baltimore coach John Harbaugh plans to play most of the starters, while Cincinnati is resting several starters. The Bengals have little incentive to win.
By the numbers: Baltimore ranks No. 5 in total defense and No. 7 in scoring defense, allowing 19.6 points per game. … Cincinnati ranks 23rd in scoring offense at 19.9 points. … The Ravens won the season’s first meeting 19-14 as 3½-point favorites. … Joe Flacco threw one interception in each of Baltimore’s past five games. … Flacco and New Orleans’ Drew Brees are tied with a league-high 623 pass attempts.
Fitz’s pick: Ravens by 3
Jacksonville (3-12) at Indianapolis (7-8)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Colts -4½, 47
Doug Fitz’s analysis: For some reason, the Jaguars have looked good in their past two games, beating the Titans last week and playing the Texans tough in a one-point loss two weeks ago. I’ll give a reluctant lean to Jacksonville, which might want to end its season with some momentum. The Colts’ playoff hopes died last week in Oakland, so they have little incentive.
By the numbers: The Jags are 6-8-1 ATS after covering their past two games. … Jacksonville has a minus-16 turnover ratio. … Indianapolis’ T.Y. Hilton leads the league with 1,353 yards receiving. … The Colts’ Andrew Luck has 29 touchdown passes.
Fitz’s pick: Jaguars by 3
Dallas (13-2) at Philadelphia (6-9)
Time/TV: 10 a.m., KVVU (5)
Line/Total: Eagles -4½, 43
Doug Fitz’s analysis: Mark Sanchez is expected to be Dallas’ primary quarterback. The Cowboys clinched the No. 1 seed in the NFC, so some of their starters might rest. Dallas would be crazy to risk playing its most important starters more than one quarter. The Eagles should want this game more as they try to salvage something positive to end a disastrous season that started with three straight wins.
By the numbers: Dallas is 10-4-1 ATS but 1-4 in its past five games. … Cowboys rookie Ezekiel Elliott is the league’s rushing leader with 1,631 yards, and his 15 rushing touchdowns rank No. 3. … Eagles rookie Carson Wentz has passed for 14 touchdowns with 14 interceptions.
Fitz’s pick: Eagles by 10
Chicago (3-12) at Minnesota (7-8)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Vikings -6, 42½
Doug Fitz’s analysis: The Vikings opened the season 5-0 before falling apart. This is a particularly difficult game to call with both teams playing for nothing. I suppose Minnesota would like to finish the season with a home win, but the line is a little too high for a meaningless game. I’ll give a weak endorsement to the Bears.
By the numbers: Sam Bradford is the league leader in completion percentage (71.3), but Minnesota might regret trading for him. … Chicago has a minus-16 turnover ratio, tied for second worst in the league. … The Bears rank 28th in scoring offense at 17.9 points per game. … The Vikings have the league’s worst rushing offense at 72.1 yards per game.
Fitz’s pick: Vikings by 1
Carolina (6-9) at Tampa Bay (8-7)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Buccaneers -4½, 46½
Doug Fitz’s analysis: Carolina is playing out the string. Tampa Bay can make the playoffs, but only if a million unlikely things happen. The Buccaneers will be without Doug Martin, who was suspended this past week, so that pretty much takes away their running attack. Jameis Winston will need to pass more than usual against a Carolina defense that is weak against the pass. The line is too high for me to consider playing the favorite.
By the numbers: Winston has passed for 27 touchdowns with 17 interceptions. … A year after being named the league’s Most Valuable Player, Cam Newton has completed only 52.7 percent of his passes. … The Panthers are 5-9-1 ATS, including 2-1 as road underdogs.
Fitz’s pick: Panthers by 3
Cleveland (1-14) at Pittsburgh (10-5)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Steelers -6, 43
Doug Fitz’s analysis: With the Browns winning last week, it’s time to fade them again. The Steelers have clinched the AFC North and cannot improve their playoff seeding. The Steelers will rest some starters, including quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, running back Le’Veon Bell and wideout Antonio Brown, but their bench players are probably better than most of Cleveland’s starters. If the Browns had lost last week, I think they would have been live ’dogs in this spot, but they will be back to business as usual. Their business is losing and trying to secure the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft.
By the numbers: Bell is the league’s No. 2 rusher with 1,268 yards. … Brown leads the league in receptions with 106. … Cleveland is 3-12 ATS. … The Browns, who rank 31st in total defense, allow 4.7 yards rushing per attempt and 7.4 yards passing per attempt.
Fitz’s pick: Steelers by 14
New England (13-2) at Miami (10-5)
Time/TV: 10 a.m., KLAS (8)
Line/Total: Patriots -9½, 44½
Doug Fitz’s analysis: The Patriots still have major motivation to win, as they can lock up the AFC’s top seed. It’s crucial because they lost the AFC title game at Denver last year, so home-field advantage should be extremely important to coach Bill Belichick. The Dolphins are locked into the wild card as the No. 5 or No. 6 seed. Miami quarterback Matt Moore is experienced and capable of playing well against the New England defense.
By the numbers: New England is a league-best 12-3 ATS, including 11-3 ATS as a favorite. … Miami is 7-3 ATS as an underdog. … Tom Brady has 25 touchdown passes with two interceptions for the Patriots, who are scoring 27.1 points per game.
Fitz’s pick: Patriots by 6
New York Giants (10-5) at Washington (8-6-1)
Time/TV: 1:25 p.m., KVVU (5)
Line/Total: Redskins -7½, 45
Doug Fitz’s analysis: The Redskins have the obvious motivational edge because they can secure a playoff spot with a win. The Giants are the No. 5 seed and cannot improve their seeding, but coach Ben McAdoo claims he will play his starters. Whether they do and for how long, the number is still too high. Regardless of situations, underdogs in NFC East play have been a good bet historically.
By the numbers: The Redskins are 10-5 ATS (4-3 at home) and 12-3 over the total. … Washington’s Kirk Cousins is second in the league with 4,630 yards passing. … The Giants’ Odell Beckham Jr. is second in the league with 1,323 yards receiving.
Fitz’s pick: Redskins by 3
New Orleans (7-8) at Atlanta (10-5)
Time: 1:25 p.m.
Line/Total: Falcons -7, 56½
Doug Fitz’s analysis: The Falcons can secure the NFC’s No. 2 seed and a first-round bye with a win. Emotions will be high, as Atlanta is playing its final regular-season game at the 25-year-old Georgia Dome. The Saints have won two in a row, and there’s no doubt coach Sean Payton and quarterback Drew Brees would like to get to 8-8. I expect New Orleans to keep this close because of Brees, who’s having one of his best seasons.
By the numbers: Atlanta ranks No. 1 in scoring offense (33.5 points per game), and New Orleans ranks No. 2 (29.1). … The Falcons defeated the Saints 45-32 in the teams’ first meeting in September. … Brees leads the league in passing yards (4,858) and has 35 touchdowns. … Ryan ranks No. 3 in passing yards (4,613) and has 34 touchdowns. … Atlanta is 10-5 ATS and 12-2-1 over the total. … New Orleans is 10-5 ATS and 8-7 over the total.
Fitz’s pick: Falcons by 3
Arizona (6-8-1) at Los Angeles (4-11)
Time: 1:25 p.m.
Line/Total: Cardinals -6½, 40½
Doug Fitz’s analysis: Top pick Jared Goff’s rookie season is a lost cause. Los Angeles’ offense ranks last in the NFL, averaging only 14.5 points and 272.0 yards per game. The Cardinals showed some fight last week by winning at Seattle, and coach Bruce Arians probably will get another solid effort from his veteran leaders. Arizona has a lot more offensive firepower, and rising star David Johnson should run wild against the Rams’ weak rushing defense.
By the numbers: Johnson ranks fifth in rushing yards (1,233) and second in rushing touchdowns (16). … Johnson is the only player in NFL history to gain 100 or more yards from scrimmage in each of his first 15 games to start a season. … The Cardinals have the No. 11 scoring offense at 24.9 points per game.
Fitz’s pick: Cardinals by 14
Kansas City (11-4) at San Diego (5-10)
Time: 1:25 p.m.
Line/Total: Chiefs -5½, 44½
Doug Fitz’s analysis: I’m betting this is the final game the Chargers play in San Diego before they move to Los Angeles. That could be reason alone for the Philip Rivers-led team to play with intensity. However, the Chiefs are in impressive form, winning four of their past five games. The Chargers will play hard, but Kansas City is playing too well, and the Chiefs can take the AFC West with a win and an Oakland loss at Denver.
By the numbers: Rivers has tossed a league-high 19 interceptions. … The Chiefs are 7-3-1 ATS in their past 11 games. … Kansas City allows 18.9 points per game to rank fifth in scoring defense. … Ugly games are normal for the Chiefs, who are 5-10 under the total.
Fitz’s pick: Chiefs by 10
Seattle (9-5-1) at San Francisco (2-13)
Time: 1:25 p.m.
Line/Total: Seahawks -9½, 43
Doug Fitz’s analysis: If Atlanta gets upset by New Orleans, Seattle could secure a first-round bye with a win. After an unexpected home loss last week to Arizona, the Seahawks will be refocused. The last thing they want is to enter the playoffs with back-to-back losses. The 49ers, who have two wins over the hapless Rams, are arguably the worst team in the league. The Seahawks will take no prisoners against a division rival they have dominated in recent years.
By the numbers: San Francisco is a terrible team, but it does run the ball well and averages 130.5 yards rushing to rank No. 4 in the NFL. … Colin Kaepernick has 15 touchdown passes and four interceptions for the 49ers … Seattle linebacker Bobby Wagner leads the league with 155 tackles. … The Seahawks rank No. 2 in scoring defense by allowing 17.9 points per game.
Fitz’s pick: Seahawks by 20
Oakland (12-3) at Denver (8-7)
Time/TV: 1:25 p.m., KLAS (8)
Line/Total: Broncos -1½, 40½
Doug Fitz’s analysis: Backup quarterback Matt McGloin takes over Oakland’s high-powered offense for injured MVP candidate Derek Carr. The Raiders would be favored with Carr playing. Unless the Chiefs lose, the Raiders need to win this game to claim the AFC West and a first-round bye. The Broncos have nothing on the line. The Denver offense, led by quarterback Trevor Siemian, has been awful in the past three games, scoring a total of 23 points in three losses. Rookie quarterback Paxton Lynch, a first-round pick, should see considerable playing time in relief, but I doubt it will matter. Denver’s defense, shredded last week by the Chiefs, will be without injured linebacker DeMarcus Ware.
By the numbers: McGloin is 1-5 in six career starts, and this will be his first start since his rookie season in 2013. … Oakland is plus-18 in turnover ratio. … The Raiders, who have scored 30 or more points in six of their past eight wins, are 10-5 over the total.
Fitz’s pick: Raiders by 6
Green Bay (9-6) at Detroit (9-6)
Time/TV: 5:30 p.m., KSNV (3)
Line/Total: Packers -3½, 49½
Doug Fitz’s analysis: The winner takes the NFC North, and the loser needs Washington to lose to secure a wild-card spot. The Lions have lost two in a row on the road against the Giants and Cowboys. Green Bay has won five straight and is arguably the hottest team in the league. I have to stick with the hot team. This is the fourth straight year the Packers’ Week 17 game has been for the division title, and they won two of the past three. It will be tough to win in Detroit, with the Lions seeking their first division title since 1993.
By the numbers: Aaron Rodgers has 14 touchdown passes with no interceptions in the Packers’ past six games. … Jordy Nelson has 38 receptions for 528 yards and five touchdowns during Green Bay’s winning streak. … Detroit’s Matthew Stafford has thrown four interceptions in his past three games since injuring the middle finger of his throwing hand.
Fitz’s pick: Packers by 7
