NFL betting breakdown: Picking winners for title games

Bengals (12-7) at Chiefs (14-5)

— Time: Noon Sunday, KLAS-8

— Line/total: Chiefs -7, 54½

— Market watch: The line has mostly stayed steady at Chiefs -7 all week, though most sportsbooks now have the Chiefs -7 juiced to -115 or -120. BetMGM has Bengals +7½ but juiced to -120. The total has slowly risen from 53½.

— Analysis: It’s difficult to make the case against Kansas City after the Chiefs survived what appeared to be the real AFC championship game last week against Buffalo. The Bengals can point to their 34-31 home victory over the Chiefs on Jan. 2, but even then, Kansas City built leads of 14-0, 21-7 and 28-14 before Cincinnati rallied in the second half. In that game, Bengals rookie receiver Ja’Marr Chase torched the Chiefs for 11 catches for 266 yards and three touchdowns, often against single coverage. Surely, Kansas City will take a different approach this time. The Bengals can celebrate a great season, but Football Outsiders’ highly respected DVOA metric ranks Cincinnati 17th in the NFL, and their playoff wins have come against No. 21 (Raiders) and No. 20 (Tennessee). The Bengals’ best chance is starting fast against a Chiefs team that might let down after last week’s big win. Cincinnati might cover, but it’s hard to see the Bengals in the Super Bowl.

— By the numbers: The Chiefs rank seventh in overall DVOA (third on offense, 24th on defense and third on special teams); the Bengals rank 17th (18th on offense, 19th on defense and eighth on special teams). … The Chiefs are 9-2 at home this season.

— Pick: Chiefs 38, Bengals 27

49ers (12-7) at Rams (14-5)

— Time: 3:30 p.m. Sunday, KVVU-5

— Line/total: Rams -3½, 45½

— Market watch: The line has stayed steady all week, though some sportsbooks have 49ers +3½ juiced to -120. The total has dropped from 46½.

— Analysis: Here’s a simple reason to back the underdog: The 49ers have won six straight against their NFC West rivals, including a sweep this season. First, the 49ers rolled 31-10 at home Nov. 15, with help from an interception return for a touchdown. San Francisco was actually more statistically dominant in its 27-24 overtime victory in Week 18 to get into the playoffs. In that game, the 49ers outgained the Rams 449 to 265, at 6.7 yards per play to 4.1, erasing an early 17-0 deficit. According to Football Outsiders, teams that swept their opponent in the regular season, then were still underdogs against that team in the playoffs are 2-1 straight up and against the spread. A bet on the Rams is a bet that they’re more of the team that built a 17-0 lead against the 49ers in Week 18 and a 27-3 lead against Tampa Bay last week before struggling to finish. San Francisco quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo has been living on the edge in the playoffs, and he might throw one to the Rams that swings the game.

— By the numbers: The Rams are fifth in overall DVOA (eighth on offense, fifth on defense and fourth on special teams); the 49ers rank sixth overall (fifth on offense, seventh on defense and 26th on special teams). … The 49ers are 8-3 on the road, including 2-0 in the playoffs.

— Pick: Rams 23, 49ers 16

Contact Jim Barnes at jbarnes@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-0277. Follow @JimBarnesLV on Twitter.