NFL betting breakdown: Time for Pack to bounce back

After years of playing second fiddle to their biggest rival, Jay Cutler and the Chicago Bears are looking to change the tune.

The Bears (2-1) could take a two-game lead over the Packers (1-2) in the NFC North when the teams meet today at Soldier Field, where Green Bay has covered four consecutive times.

Las Vegas handicapper Dana Lane recommends backing the Packers as 1½-point favorites. Lane expects a big performance from quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who said fans need to “relax” about the team’s poor start.

Green Bay is getting little production from its ground game, but Rodgers will be the focus of the attack against an injury-depleted Chicago secondary.

“The Packers’ pass protection must get better,” Lane said. “Rodgers has been sacked nine times in three games. So, you combat an offensive line that has trouble in pass protection with quick strikes to wideouts Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb. In Green Bay’s loss to Detroit last week, I felt there needed to be more of an emphasis on the short passing game, which in turn would loosen up all other aspects of the offense.

“We’ve heard of the run setting up the pass, but now you’ll see the pass setting up the run. This is especially important to Rodgers, who underthrew quite a few balls last week.”

The Green Bay defense held the Lions to 10 points and forced three turnovers. In five seasons with the Bears, Cutler is 1-9 against the Packers with 10 touchdown passes and 18 interceptions.

Lane (DanaLaneSports.com) pointed to another trend — Green Bay is 18-7-1 against the spread in its past 26 games against opponents with a winning record.

“This line is also a bit curious to me,” Lane said. “I had the Bears as a favorite, which suggests the oddsmakers side with the Packers.”

Lane (@DanaLaneSports on Twitter) analyzes the rest of today’s Week 4 schedule:

■ Miami (-3½) vs. Oakland (at London): The Raiders had their chances to beat New England on the road. The way to beat the Dolphins is to apply pressure on quarterback Ryan Tannehill, and it’s not hard to do with their below-average offensive line. Last week against Kansas City, Tannehill was 1-for-8 on throws more than 15 yards downfield. I’m fully aware of the Raiders’ problems on offense, but I’m more confident backing the Oakland defense against a team led by one of the league’s worst quarterbacks.

■ Buffalo at Houston (-3): If you want to make money, betting the Bills on the road is a losing proposition. In their past 11 road games, the Bills are 3-8 ATS. Always handicap the offensive line first. If this group is weak, chances are the football team is weak. Last week against San Diego, Bills quarterback, EJ Manuel was sacked three times as the Chargers consistently forced Manuel out of the pocket, and the Bills managed only 10 points. Manuel has attempted to throw the ball more than 10 yards downfield only 7.5 times per game. I won’t back a team that can’t protect its quarterback and rarely covers games on the road.

■ Tennessee at Indianapolis (-7½): I usually look to bet the ’dog in this scenario. One thing we know about the NFL and gambling is when something seems logical, the result is usually illogical. This seems to be an easy play. The Titans were blown out last week at Cincinnati, and the Colts pounded Jacksonville. But Tennessee is worth a shot getting 7½. This is a spot for Indianapolis to concentrate on getting more production out of its running game, so they may try to force the issue with Trent Richardson and Ahmad Bradshaw. A sluggish effort from the Colts should help the Titans cover.

■ Carolina at Baltimore (-3½): I was asked to give out a sleeper team in the NFL this season, and the first team out of my mouth was the Panthers. I’m a sucker for good defenses, and Carolina had a top-five defense last season. Although the Panthers rank 14th in total defense this season, they are eighth against the pass and 10th in points allowed. But their offense has not sustained long drives, putting a burden on that defense. This figures to be a defensive struggle. Carolina has to be embarrassed by last week’s blowout home loss to Pittsburgh. You should see the Panthers’ best effort.

■ Detroit (-1½) at New York Jets: Maybe I simply want to watch what would happen if the Jets lose another game with Geno Smith as their starting quarterback while an accomplished Michael Vick looks on. But the bigger question could be on the other side of the ball, where I find it difficult to envision the banged-up Jets secondary coming up with a way to stop Lions wide receiver Calvin Johnson. The Jets are one of six defenses to not have an interception, and they allowed a 100-yard receiver in their past two games. I can’t bring myself to back the Jets.

■ Tampa Bay at Pittsburgh (-7½): The Steelers are riding the momentum of a 37-19 win at Carolina, and the team re-signed popular linebacker James Harrison last week. The Buccaneers have had major injuries, including a right thumb injury to quarterback Josh McCown, so Mike Glennon is expected to start. Pittsburgh is 30-13 since 2004 when facing a quarterback making his first start against a Dick LeBeau defense. With the line moving in the Buccaneers’ direction, give me the Steelers.

■ Jacksonville at San Diego (-13): I’m done backing the Jaguars. I have made up reasons for why this team is getting better and doesn’t deserve to be a big underdog, but that perceived potential is not showing. The facts are Jacksonville is 8-21-1 ATS in its past 30 games against a winning opponent, and the Chargers have covered five straight games. The Jaguars allowed Andrew Luck to complete 31 of 39 passes for 370 yards and four touchdowns last week. Luck was 6-for-6 on passes of more than 20 yards. Of Luck’s eight incompletions, at least three were drops. Philip Rivers should have similar success. I’m on San Diego, which showed moxie by going to Buffalo and dominating the Bills.

■ Philadelphia at San Francisco (-5): The Eagles (3-0) have not had an easy time of it, forced to come back from double-digit deficits in all three games. If focus has been the issue, I expect it not to be against the 49ers. Philadelphia should have no problem playing a complete game while sending a message to the rest of the NFC that its record is legitimate. Expect the Eagles to feature running back LeSean McCoy against the 49ers, who have been outscored 44-14 in the past five quarters. The San Francisco running attack also has been anemic at best, with Frank Gore and Carlos Hyde combining for just 202 yards on the ground. I prefer to take the points.

■ Atlanta (-3) at Minnesota: Vikings fans finally get their wish, but be careful what you wish for. With veteran quarterback Matt Cassel out, in steps rookie Teddy Bridgewater for his first NFL start. Bridgewater has to find a way to match the Falcons, who are feeling good about themselves after scoring 56 points against Tampa Bay. After an injury to tight end Kyle Rudolph and the suspension of running back Adrian Peterson, Minnesota has scored only 16 points in the past two weeks. I know I said what looks logical often turns out illogical, but I can’t find a reason to back the inexperienced Bridgewater.

■ New Orleans (-3) at Dallas: I’m assuming most people would look at this game as an easy selection. The Saints are still considered one of the favorites to reach the Super Bowl, and the Cowboys are trying to gain defensive respect. It appears Drew Brees should have a huge day against Dallas. But let’s not lose sight of the Saints’ home-road splits. New Orleans has been a cash machine at home, but the Saints have lost seven of their past eight on the road.

In the Jason Garrett era, we have heard talk about running the ball more, but this is the first season the Cowboys are committed to doing so, even after falling behind 21-0 at St. Louis. Dallas finished with more run plays (29) than pass plays (23), improving Garrett’s coaching record to 8-1 when the Cowboys run more than they pass. I’ll run with the home ’dog.

COMPILED BY MATT YOUMANS LAS VEGAS REVIEW-JOURNAL