NFL betting breakdown: Week 1

BETTING BREAKDOWN

“Dr. Alan” Dumond, @Wizardpicks, Wizardraceandsports.com

Steelers at Bills

Time: 10 a.m., KLAS-8

Line/total: Bills -6½, 48½

Analysis: Polar opposites is the best way to describe public perception of these teams, as the public is high on the Bills and ready to fade the Steelers. Last season, Pittsburgh’s defense kept the high-powered Bills offense in check, and Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen played one of his worst games, albeit in a 26-15 win. The difference in that one was Ben Roethlisberger’s interception returned for a touchdown. Steelers coach Mike Tomlin will have his team prepared. The always tough Pittsburgh defense, led by 2020 NFL sack leader T.J. Watt, will keep the Steelers competitive, with a chance at an outright upset.

By the numbers: The Bills scored a franchise-record 501 points last season. … The Steelers led the NFL in sacks with 56.

Pick: Steelers 24, Bills 21

Jets at Panthers

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Panthers -4, 44½

Analysis: The storyline is new Panthers quarterback Sam Darnold’s chance to get revenge vs. his former team. The Jets are in rebuilding mode with first-year coach Robert Saleh and rookie QB Zach Wilson. The Panthers are also rebuilding, but they are further along than the Jets. Rookie coaches and quarterbacks on the road in Week 1 are usually not a recipe for success.

By the numbers: The Jets finished last in the NFL in scoring last season, averaging 15.2 points. … Darnold threw more interceptions (11) than touchdowns (nine) last season.

Pick: Panthers 24, Jets 14

Jaguars at Texans

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Jaguars -3, 45½

Analysis: Two rookie coaches square off in this divisional game with Houston’s David Culley and Jacksonville’s Urban Meyer. The difference might come down to the quarterbacks: Jaguars No. 1 overall draft pick Trevor Lawrence and Texans veteran Tyrod Taylor. Rookie coaches and rookie quarterbacks on the road in Week 1 are usually not a recipe for success. The Texans have the dubious distinction of being the only NFL team to have been made an underdog in all 17 of their games. This might be Houston’s best chance at a victory.

By the numbers: The Texans swept the season series with the Jaguars last season by scores of 30-14 and 27-25. … Taylor has a 24-22-1 record as a starter and a touchdown-interception ratio of 54-20.

Pick: Texans 20, Jaguars 17

Cardinals at Titans

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Titans -3, 53½

Analysis: The Titans are looking to atone for their early exit from the playoffs last season. The Cardinals hope to earn their first playoff berth in the third year of the coach Kliff Kingsbury/QB Kyler Murray era. The Titans have a potent offense behind QB Ryan Tannehill and 2020 NFL rushing leader Derrick Henry. Both teams can score.

By the numbers: The Titans led the league in turnover differential (+11) last season. … The Cardinals are 2-0 ATS in Week 1 the past two years, covering both games as underdogs.

Pick: Titans 31, Cardinals 28

Chargers at Washington

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Washington -1, 44½

Analysis: The Chargers are led by rookie coach Brandon Staley and QB Justin Herbert, the NFL’s 2020 Offensive Rookie of the Year. The Football Team is led by defensive end Chase Young, the 2020 Defensive Rookie of the Year. Washington has a new quarterback in Ryan Fitzpatrick. With a new coach on one sideline and a new starting quarterback on the other, expect a low-scoring game.

By the numbers: Herbert had a TD/interception ratio of 31-10 last season. … Fitzpatrick had a TD/INT ratio of 13-8.

Pick: Washington 23 Chargers 20

Eagles at Falcons

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Falcons -3, 48½

Analysis: This is a matchup of two rookie coaches in Philadelphia’s Nick Sirianni and Atlanta’s Arthur Smith. Both teams are in rebuilding mode. Falcons longtime star wide receiver Julio Jones is gone, but newly named team captain Calvin Ridley is still catching passes in Atlanta. Falcons veteran QB Matt Ryan has the clear advantage over Eagles second-year unproven QB Jalen Hurts.

By the numbers: Ryan is 11-2 straight up and ATS in Week 1. … Hurts was 1-4 SU last season as a starter.

Pick: Falcons 27, Eagles 20

Seahawks at Colts

Time: 10 a.m., KVVU-5

Line/total: Seahawks -3, 49

Analysis: The Seahawks are 3-point road favorites after the Colts opened -3. The line move was based largely upon the news that new Indianapolis QB Carson Wentz would not start. It turns out that Wentz will start, but the line hasn’t moved from Seattle -3. The betting public is all over the Seahawks.

By the numbers: The Colts are 2-11 SU and 1-12 ATS in Week 1. … Seahawks QB Russell Wilson is 12-1 SU and 9-2-2 ATS in the Eastern time zone.

Pick: Colts 24, Seahawks 20

Vikings at Bengals

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Vikings -3, 47½

Analysis: The Vikings try to rebound from a 7-9 season with a revamped defense that returns stud DE Danielle Hunter. But starting linebacker and defensive signal-caller Anthony Barr has been ruled out. The Bengals are hoping that franchise QB Joe Burrow will play at the same high level he did last season before he suffered a season-ending knee injury. Expect an improved Minnesota defense and possibly a slow start from the Bengals offense to lead to a lower-scoring game.

By the numbers: The Vikings are 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS as road favorites. … Under coach Zac Taylor, Cincinnati is 5-11 SU and 6-7-3 ATS at home the two past years.

Pick: Vikings 24, Bengals 17

49ers at Lions

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: 49ers -8, 45½

Analysis: Lions rookie coach Dan Campbell inherits a team in rebuilding mode. Detroit starts new QB Jared Goff, who regressed badly last season with the Rams. The 49ers look to start what they hope will be a bounce-back season with a win. San Francisco welcomes back many of its injured star players, most notably QB Jimmy Garoppolo and DE Nick Bosa. Niners coach Kyle Shanahan has plenty of experience game-planning against Goff.

By the numbers: The 49ers were -11 in turnover differential last season. … The Lions were -9 in turnover differential in 2020.

Pick: 49ers 28, Lions 17

Browns at Chiefs

Time: 1:25 p.m., KLAS-8

Line/total: Chiefs -5½, 54½

Analysis: The Browns will try to avenge last season’s 22-17 playoff loss to the Chiefs. Cleveland’s best chance at an upset is to run the ball with its outstanding duo of RBs Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. The Chiefs will try to atone for their Super Bowl loss to Tampa Bay behind QB Patrick Mahomes and a revamped offensive line. The Browns have a revamped defense with many new starters. Expect a high-scoring game.

By the numbers: Chiefs coach Andy Reid is 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in Week 1. … The Browns are winless in Week 1 since 2004.

Pick: Chiefs 35, Browns 24

Dolphins at Patriots

Time: 1:25 p.m.

Line/total: Patriots -3, 43½

Analysis: The Patriots return several starters who opted out last season because of COVID-19 and start rookie QB Mac Jones, their first-round draft pick out of Alabama. The Dolphins start second-year QB Tua Tagovailoa, another Alabama product. With defensive-minded coaches in New England’s Bill Belichick and Miami’s Brian Flores, expect a lower-scoring game.

By the numbers: Belichick is 12-2 SU and 8-5-1 ATS in Week 1. … Flores is 0-2 SU and ATS in Week 1.

Pick: Dolphins 23, Patriots 20

Broncos at Giants

Time: 1:25 p.m.

Line/total: Broncos -3, 41½

Analysis: The Broncos are road favorites with veteran QB Teddy Bridgewater taking over for Drew Lock, last year’s turnover-prone starter. The Giants hope QB Daniel Jones can cut down on his turnovers and take a big step forward in his third year. New York RB Saquon Barkley will return from a season-ending knee injury and should take some pressure off Jones.

By the numbers: The Giants are 1-8 SU and 2-7 ATS in Week 1. … Under coach Vic Fangio, the Broncos are 0-2 SU and 1-1 ATS in Week 1. … The Broncos were an NFL-worst -16 in turnover differential last season.

Pick: Broncos 20, Giants 13

Packers at Saints

Time: 1:25 p.m., KVVU-5

Line/total: Packers -3½, 50

Analysis: Hurricane Ida caused this game to be moved to a neutral field in Jacksonville, Florida. With the retirement of surefire Hall of Famer Drew Brees, the Saints will start QB Jameis Winston, the only member of the NFL’s 30-30 club with 30 interceptions and 30 TD passes in the same season. The Packers welcome back 2020 NFL MVP QB Aaron Rodgers, who unsuccessfully tried to force his way out of Green Bay.

By the numbers: The point spread flipped from an opening line of Saints -3 to Saints +3½. … Packers coach Matt Lafleur is 2-0 SU and ATS in Week 1.

Pick: Packers 31, Saints 24

Bears at Rams

Time: 5:20 p.m., KSNV-3

Line/total: Rams -7½, 46½

Analysis: The Rams welcome fans into their new stadium for the first time in prime time. Los Angeles will be led by new QB Matthew Stafford and the NFL’s top-ranked defense, anchored by the 2020 NFL Defensive Player of the Year, defensive tackle Aaron Donald, and All-Pro cornerback Jalen Ramsey. The Bears also have a new quarterback in veteran Andy Dalton, a place holder until Chicago’s first-round draft pick, Justin Fields, is ready to take over.

By the numbers: Rams coach Sean McVay is 4-0 SU and ATS in Week 1. … Stafford has started 136 consecutive games, the seventh-longest streak in NFL history. … Dalton is 0-7 SU and 2-5 ATS vs. teams with a winning record.

Pick: Rams 27, Bears 13

Ravens at Raiders

Time: 5:15 p.m. Monday, ESPN

Line/total: Ravens -4, 50½

Analysis: The Raiders welcome fans into Allegiant Stadium for the first time in prime time. The Ravens are banged up, having lost three key players to season-ending injuries in running backs J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards and cornerback Marcus Peters. Raiders QB Derek Carr looks to build off his strong performance last season. But for the Raiders to succeed, they need major improvement from their defense.

By the numbers: Ravens coach John Harbaugh is 10-3 SU and ATS in Week 1. … Raiders coach Jon Gruden is 2-1 SU and ATS in Week 1 the past two years.

Pick: Raiders 27, Ravens 24