NFL betting breakdown: Week 10

Scott Kellen, SixthSenseSports.com, @SixthSenseNFL

Broncos (3-5) at Raiders (5-3)

Time: 1:05 p.m., KLAS-8

Line/total: Raiders -3½; 50½

Analysis: Denver looked bad last week in Atlanta before adding on garbage points at the end of its 34-27 loss. But the Broncos played without their two top cornerbacks in Bryce Callahan and A.J. Bouye. They should return this week, which gives Denver the better defense getting points.

By the numbers: The Raiders allowed only six points to Cleveland in horrible weather conditions, but they have given up 24 points or more in every other game. They’ve allowed more than 30 points five times. … Las Vegas has a 6-1-1 over-under record, and Denver has gone over in three straight games.

Pick: Raiders 28, Broncos 27

Washington (2-6) at Lions (3-5)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Lions -3½; 46

Analysis: Detroit is a mess and will be without wideout Kenny Golladay again this week. Alex Smith gets the start for Washington. The Football Team’s loss to the Giants last week covered up the fact that they outgained New York by 3.3 yards per play and were minus five in turnover margin.

By the numbers: Detroit has won one game by more than three points (over lowly Jacksonville) and has allowed 22 points or more in all but one game. … Washington hasn’t allowed more than 23 points against the lower echelon teams. … Washington has lost 13 of its last 17 games as a road underdog. … Detroit is on a 1-4 spread skid as a home favorite.

Pick: Football Team 24, Lions 23

Texans (2-6) at Browns (5-3)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Browns -4; 45½

Analysis: There are 30+ mph winds expected in Cleveland. The Browns throw the ball 54 percent of the time vs. Houston throwing the ball 69 percent. With high winds expected, this figures to impact Houston much more than Cleveland. The Browns average 5.0 yards per rush, and Houston is allowing 5.1 yards per rush. Houston averages just 3.9 yards per rush, and Cleveland allows just 4.0 yards per rush. The better rushing team has the advantage with high winds.

By the numbers: Baker Mayfield has won eight of nine games he’s started at home against teams that did not make the playoffs that season. He has won all eight of those games by at least five points. … The Texans are on a 4-12-1 spread slide.

Pick: Browns 24, Texans 15

Jaguars (1-7) at Packers (6-2)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Packers -13½; 47½

Analysis: Much like the game in Cleveland, high winds also are expected in Green Bay. The Packers average 4.6 yards per rush, and Jacksonville allows 4.5 yards per rush. In a game in which running the ball figures to be important, the Packers have the advantage.

By the numbers: Green Bay is riding a 10-1 under streak when it’s a home favorite of more than seven points. … The Jaguars are on a 5-11 spread slide. … The Packers are 6-2 ATS this season but on a 1-4 spread skid as double-digit favorites.

Pick: Packers 28, Jaguars 13

Eagles (3-4-1) at Giants (2-7)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Eagles -4; 44½

Analysis: The Eagles are getting healthy, and there’s plenty of offensive help on the way with tackles Lane Johnson and Jason Peters, running back Miles Sanders and wide receiver Alshon Jefferey expected back for this game. The Giants’ win at Washington last week masked the fact that they were outgained by 3.3 yards per play and were plus five in turnover margin.

By the numbers: Philadelphia has dominated the Giants in New York, winning 10 of the last 12 meetings there by at least five points each. The Eagles have won six of the last seven meetings at New York, scoring 34 points or more in each of those wins. … The Giants are on a 2-12 ATS slide as home underdogs. They’ve scored more than 18 points in two of those 14 games. Ten of those 12 losses were by double digits.

Pick: Eagles 27, Giants 20

Buccaneers (6-3) at Panthers (3-6)

Time: 10 a.m., KVVU-5

Line/total: Tampa Bay -6; 50½

Analysis: Tom Brady will pick a team apart if it gives him time in the pocket. The Tampa Bay quarterback struggled amid constant pressure in last week’s blowout loss to New Orleans. This week, he faces a Carolina pass rush that ranks third-worst in the NFL in generating pressure on the quarterback.

By the numbers: Under coach Bruce Arians, the Buccaneers are 4-2 ATS (5-1 straight up) as road favorites, with four of those wins by 17 points or more. They’ve allowed 20 points or fewer in five of those six games. … Carolina has played two good defenses, mustering 16 points vs. Chicago and 17 points against the Bucs. … The under is 47-17 for teams, such as Tampa Bay, coming off a home loss of 24 points or more.

Pick: Buccaneers 24, Panthers 20

Bills (7-2) at Cardinals (5-3)

Time: 1:05 p.m.

Line/total: Cardinals -2½, 56

Analysis: This game figures to be close, as both teams have struggled to win by margin against the better teams on their schedule. Arizona has allowed 34 points each to the two potential playoff teams it has faced, winning one by three and losing one by three.

By the numbers: The Bills have allowed 23 points or more against the playoff-caliber teams they’ve faced. … Arizona is 15-8-1 ATS under coach Kliff Kingsbury. … The Cardinals are on an 8-4-1 under run.

Pick: Cardinals 28, Bills 24

Chargers (2-6) at Dolphins (5-3)

Time: 1:05 p.m.

Line/total: Dolphins -1½; 48½

Analysis: A battle of rookie quarterbacks in Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert. Can the Chargers finally finish a game? Will we see more of the Tua we saw in last week’s win at Arizona who looked as if he could play in this league or the player we saw two weeks ago against the Rams who looked as if he needed help? Defensive end Joey Bosa is out for Los Angeles, and Miami linebacker Kyle Van Noy is on the COVID list and probably will miss the game.

By the numbers: The Chargers have a long history of being good as road underdogs, riding a 19-8-1 cover streak, including covers this season at New Orleans and Tampa Bay. … Miami has won and covered its last four games and is on a 15-5 ATS run overall. … Los Angeles is on a 5-0 over streak.

Pick: Dolphins 26, Chargers 23

Seahawks (6-2) at Rams (5-3)

Time: 1:25 p.m., KVVU-5

Line/total: Rams -2½; 54½

Analysis: The Rams’ offense is predicated on the running game and ability to play-action pass. They lead the league in pass attempts off play-action and are second in passing yards in play-action. Seattle’s defense has been horrible but has defended the run well, which could slow the Rams’ ability for play-action. On the flip side, the Rams are well-equipped to defend Seattle’s high-octane pass offense.

By the numbers: Seattle is on a 7-1 ATS run as a road underdog. The Seahawks went 6-2 straight up in those games, with the losses last season to the Rams, 36-31 and 28-12. … Los Angeles has won four of the last five meetings. … The Rams are on a 5-0 under run.

Pick: Rams 28, Seahawks 24

49ers (4-5) at Saints (6-2)

Time: 1:25 p.m.

Line/total: Saints -9½; 49

Analysis: San Francisco remains banged up, missing its best players on both sides of the ball. New Orleans is coming off its biggest win of the season in a 38-3 rout at Tampa Bay. The Saints will have to avoid the typical letdown following such a big win.

By the numbers: New Orleans is on a 5-13 ATS slide as a home favorite of more than seven points. … The Niners are riding a 6-1 cover streak as road underdogs and are on a 9-3 ATS run on the road overall. … The over is 7-1 Saints games this season.

Pick: Saints 29, 49ers 23

Bengals (2-5) at Steelers (8-0)

Time: 1:25 p.m.

Line/total: Steelers -7½; 46

Analysis: There are 20 mph winds expected in Pittsburgh. Cincinnati is below average throwing the ball, running the ball, defending the pass and defending the run (144 rushing yards per game allowed). The Steelers rank in the NFL’s top 10 in quarterback pressures allowed on Ben Roethlisberger, and the Bengals are second-worst in getting pressure on the QB. Roethlisberger should have time to throw, and Pittsburgh should be able to run on a bad Cincinnati rush defense.

By the numbers: The Bengals are on a 12-6 ATS uptick as road underdogs. … Pittsburgh has scored 24 points or more as favorites in 22 of its last 25 games that Roethlisberger has started. … The Steelers are riding an 18-9-1 over run with Roethlisberger at quarterback. … The under is 6-1-1 in the last eight meetings.

Pick: Steelers 27, Bengals 20

Ravens (6-2) at Patriots (3-5)

Time: 5:20 p.m., KSNV-3

Line/total: Ravens -7; 43½

Analysis: New England was blown out 37-20 at Baltimore last season on “Sunday Night Football.” The loss started a 7-10 slide by the Patriots, who enter the rematch with a below-average offense and defense.

By the numbers: Ravens QB Lamar Jackson is 9-0 straight up and 6-1-2 ATS as a road favorite, winning seven of those games by seven points or more. Baltimore scored at least 30 points in seven of those games and allowed 17 or fewer in seven of them. Also, eight of those games totaled at least 46 points. … The Patriots are 1-2 as underdogs this season after going 13-3 ATS in their previous 16 games in that role.

Pick: Ravens 27, Patriots 17

Vikings (3-5) at Bears (5-4)

Time: 5:15 p.m. Monday, ESPN

Line/total: Vikings -3; 43

Analysis: These teams have headed in opposite directions the last few weeks, and the market has reflected that. The Vikings have won three of their past five games after an 0-3 start and look like the team we’ve seen the last few years. Chicago has lost three straight after a 5-1 start, and its offense is nowhere to be found.

By the numbers: Minnesota has struggled at Chicago going back to 2001. The Vikings are 3-16 straight up in their last 19 trips to Soldier Field and 4-14-1 ATS. … The Bears are riding a 13-4-1 ATS streak as home underdogs. … Minnesota fits a trend in which Monday night road teams coming off a double-digit home win and facing a team with a winning percentage of .334 or better are on a 12-32 spread slide.

Pick: Vikings 24, Bears 21