NFL betting breakdown: Week 11
BETTING BREAKDOWN
Mark Franco, Vegasinsider.com, Francosports.com
Lions (0-8-1) at Browns (5-5)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Browns -12½, 42½
Analysis: The Lions are coming off a solid effort on defense in last week’s 16-16 tie in Pittsburgh. The Browns are coming off a 45-7 beatdown by the Patriots in New England, where they were outplayed on both sides of the ball. I don’t have a solid opinion for either side, but I lean to the under, as Cleveland quarterback Baker Mayfield is not 100 percent.
By the numbers: Detroit is 4-12-1 ATS in its past 17 games in November. … The Browns are 8-22-1 ATS in November and are 1-11 ATS after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game. … The Lions are on a 6-1 under run as underdogs.
Pick: Browns 19, Lions 13
49ers (4-5) at Jaguars (2-7)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: 49ers -6½, 45
Analysis: The Jaguars lost at Indianapolis last week, and their offense has been downright bad, as they are in the bottom 10 in the NFL. It starts at quarterback, where Trevor Lawrence threw for only 162 yards last week and 118 the week before in a 9-6 home win over the Bills. San Francisco QB Jimmy Garoppolo has thrown for 1,936 yards in eight games. The 49ers should have no problem doing enough to get the road win and cover.
By the numbers: The Niners are 5-2 ATS as a road favorite. … Jacksonville is 1-4 ATS after a cover and 2-5 ATS as a home underdog. … San Francisco has covered the past four meetings.
Pick: 49ers 31, Jaguars 19
Colts (5-5) at Bills (6-3)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Bills -7, 49½
Analysis: Are the Bills still the team to beat in the AFC? I’m not so sure. Buffalo came alive last week against the worst defense in the league in the Jets. But the Bills have not looked like they did earlier this season. The Colts have been playing good football and are in the hunt for a playoff spot after winning four of their past five games.
By the numbers: Indianapolis is 8-2 ATS on the road and 4-0 ATS after an ATS loss. … The Colts are on a 10-1 over streak against teams with a winning record. … Buffalo is riding a 15-6-1 over streak after a straight-up win.
Pick: Bills 27, Colts 24
Dolphins (3-7) at Jets (2-7)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Dolphins -3½, 44½
Analysis: The Dolphins have won and covered two straight games vs. the Texans and Ravens. Miami’s defense was lights out vs. Baltimore on “Thursday Night Football.” The Dolphins have had extra time to prepare, while the Jets are coming off a 45-17 loss to the Bills. New York’s defense is ranked last in the NFL, and now they’re starting old man Joe Flacco at quarterback. Miami will score enough and win behind its defense.
By the numbers: The Dolphins are 6-1 ATS in November and 16-7 ATS after a cover. … The Jets are 11-25 ATS in November and 5-17 ATS vs. the AFC East.
Pick: Dolphins 30, Jets 21
Football Team (3-6) at Panthers (5-5)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Panthers -3½, 43
Analysis: These teams pulled off two surprising wins last week, as Washington upset Tampa Bay and Carolina crushed Arizona. The Football Team will have to deal with Panthers star running back Christian McCaffrey and QB Cam Newton, who sparked the team last week. McCaffrey had a solid game against the Cardinals’ stout defense with 161 total yards from scrimmage.
By the numbers: The Football Team is 1-5 ATS as an underdog and 1-4 ATS on the road. … The Panthers are 5-2 ATS after a straight-up win of more than 14 points and 5-2 ATS in November.
Pick: Panthers 26, Football Team 17
Ravens (6-3) at Bears (3-6)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Ravens -6, 44½
Analysis: The Ravens were dominated by the Dolphins in a 22-10 loss on “Thursday Night Football.” The Bears are on a four-game losing streak after their bye. Chicago rookie QB Justin Fields threw for a season-high 291 yards and ran for 45 last time out against the Steelers in his second straight solid outing. Baltimore’s defense has been excellent against the run, but is last in the NFL against the pass. The Bears are 31st on offense, generating 280.7 yards per game. But I think Fields will make a difference.
By the numbers: The Ravens are 1-6 ATS as favorites and 0-4 ATS in November. … The Bears are 6-13 ATS vs. teams with a winning record and 5-16-1 ATS after their bye week. … Baltimore is on a 6-1 under run on the road. … Chicago is on a 17-6 under streak at home and 5-1 under surge against teams with a winning record.
Pick: Bears 23, Ravens 20
Saints (5-4) at Eagles (4-6)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Eagles -2½, 42½
Analysis: The Saints have lost back-to-back games by two points each to Atlanta and Tennessee. This is just the fourth time in the past five seasons that New Orleans has lost consecutive games. It has not lost three straight during that span. Saints running back Alvin Kamara will be sidelined again. The Eagles have been a surprise with some big wins, including a dominant victory at Denver last week. Philadelphia is 0-4 at home.
By the numbers: The Saints are 9-2 ATS on the road against teams with a losing home record and 36-15 ATS on the road overall. … New Orleans is 35-16 ATS as an underdog. … The Eagles are 1-5 ATS as home favorites.
Pick: Saints 24, Eagles 20
Texans (1-8) at Titans (8-2)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Titans -10, 44½
Analysis: Tennessee is still playing solid football after beating the Saints but not covering and getting outgained. The Texans are the worst team in football. But my worry is that the Titans will suffer a letdown after a grueling stretch of games. Not a strong opinion with Tennessee laying double digits.
By the numbers: Houston is 6-15 ATS on the road vs. teams with a winning home record. … The Titans are on a 5-1 ATS run. … The home team is 8-2 ATS in the series. … The Texans are on a 4-0 under surge on the road. … Tennessee is riding an 11-2 over streak vs. teams with a losing record.
Pick: Titans 26, Texans 17
Packers (8-2) at Vikings (4-5)
Time: 10 a.m., KVVU-5
Line/total: Packers -1, 47½
Analysis: I expect the Packers to control this game behind Aaron Rodgers, who has thrived against the Vikings, throwing for 50 touchdowns against seven interceptions. Green Bay’s defense has been awesome, allowing fewer than 14 points in four of the past five games. The Vikings have been inconsistent all season.
By the numbers: Green Bay is 6-0 ATS as a favorite and 10-1 ATS after a cover. … Minnesota is 1-7 ATS at home.
Pick: Packers 30, Vikings 21
Bengals (5-4) at Raiders (5-4)
Time: 1:05 p.m., KLAS-8
Line/total: Bengals -1, 51
Analysis: Are the Raiders falling apart because of the turmoil they’ve dealt with in the past month? I don’t think so. The Bengals started the season as one of the NFL’s most surprising teams, but they’ve struggled some since. The Raiders were crushed by the Chiefs on Sunday night, but this is a statement game for Las Vegas.
By the numbers: Cincinnati is 2-6 ATS as a favorite. … The Raiders are 5-2 ATS as underdogs. … The Bengals are on a 14-6-1 over streak vs. the AFC. … The Raiders are on an 11-0-1 over run as home underdogs and a 10-2 over uptick vs. the AFC.
Pick: Raiders 27, Bengals 23
Cardinals (8-2) at Seahawks (3-6)
Time: 1:25 p.m.
Line/total: Cardinals -1½, 47½
Analysis: The Cardinals were whipped by the Panthers in last week’s 34-10 home loss. Arizona QB Kyler Murray most likely will get the start but is not 100 percent. Russell Wilson was shut out for the first time in his career last week in Seattle’s 17-0 loss in Green Bay.
By the numbers: The Cardinals are 5-0 ATS after a straight-up loss of more than 14 points. … Seattle is 36-15-4 ATS after a straight-up loss. … The underdog is 9-2-1 ATS in the series. … Arizona is 5-1 ATS in the past six meetings in Seattle. … The Cardinals are on a 10-3 under run on the road. … The Seahawks are on a 6-0 under streak as an underdog.
Pick: Seahawks 20, Cardinals 18
Cowboys (7-2) at Chiefs (6-4)
Time: 1:25 p.m., KVVU-5
Line/total: Chiefs -2½, 56
Analysis: The Chiefs appear to be back on track with their offense and defense playing well during a three-game win streak. Kansas City should have no problem keeping the momentum going and scoring on the Cowboys. Dallas QB Dak Prescott had a good game against the Falcons, but I see him having a somewhat hard time at Arrowhead Stadium. The Cowboys will be without standout receiver Amari Cooper (COVID-19 protocol). Home-field advantage is big for the Chiefs, and Mahomes will outplay Prescott.
By the numbers: Dallas is 5-11 ATS vs. a team with a winning record but 8-1 ATS overall this season. … Kansas City is 5-15 ATS as a favorite and 1-10 ATS in its past 11 home games.
Pick: Chiefs 31, Cowboys 24
Steelers (5-3) at Chargers (5-4)
Time: 5:20 p.m., KSNV-3
Line/total: Chargers -5, 47½
Analysis: Both teams are coming off disappointing home games, with the Steelers settling for a tie against the Lions and the Chargers losing to the Vikings. Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger is expected to return after missing last week’s game because of the coronavirus.
By the numbers: The Steelers are 18-7-1 ATS as road underdogs and 33-15-3 ATS as underdogs overall. … The Chargers are 5-12-1 ATS as home favorites. … The road team has covered the past four meetings.
Pick: Chargers 23, Steelers 21
Giants (3-6) at Buccaneers (6-3)
Time: 5:15 p.m. Monday, ESPN
Line/total: Bucs -11, 49½
Analysis: Tampa Bay is coming off a letdown game vs. Washington last week, when it scored only 19 points and lost by 10. The Giants have played hard for coach Joe Judge and should be in this game. Tampa is still dealing with some major injuries.
By the numbers: The Giants are 20-6 ATS as road underdogs and 6-1 ATS in November. … The Bucs are 7-1 ATS at home. … New York is 5-0-1 ATS in the past six meetings in Tampa Bay.
Pick: Buccaneers 23, Giants 21
