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NFL betting breakdown: Week 13


Dana Lane, @DanaLaneSports, Pickdawgz.com

Vikings (5-6) at Lions (0-10-1)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Vikings -7½, 46½

Analysis: If the Vikings have any hopes of making the postseason, their upcoming stretch of games will be the difference. After Sunday’s NFC North matchup against the Lions, Minnesota will go to Pittsburgh next week before returning home to face the Bears. This week should be a confidence builder for the team and quarterback Kirk Cousins, who is coming off his worst game of the season.

By the numbers: The under is 11-5 in the past 16 meetings and Detroit is riding a 12-5 under streak in December. … The Vikings have covered six of the past eight meetings and are 42-18 ATS after a straight-up loss.

Pick: Vikings 23, Lions 14

Cardinals (9-2) at Bears (4-7)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Cardinals -7½, 42

Analysis: With a matchup against the Rams on the horizon, we’re going to see the Cardinals looking ahead. Two weeks ago against the Seahawks, the Cardinals ran 30 more plays and had the ball for more than 40 minutes. The goal now is to get through the Bears and then put the division away next week. Expect the Bears to run the ball in an effort to control the clock.

By the numbers: The Cardinals are on a 7-0 under streak as road favorites and on an 11-3 under run on the road overall. … The Bears are riding a 28-11 under streak on grass. … Arizona is 5-0 ATS as an underdog but 3-3 ATS as a favorite.

Pick: Cardinals 21, Bears 17

Buccaneers (8-3) at Falcons (5-6)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Buccaneers -10½, 50½

Analysis: Tampa Bay wide receiver Antonio Brown and safety Mike Edwards are suspended for the next three games. Brown hasn’t played since October, but the loss of Edwards means the Buccaneers lose a versatile safety that played in 54 percent of their defensive snaps in last week’s win at Indianapolis and 71 percent the week before against the Giants. The Bucs play the Bills next week, creating a potential look-ahead spot.

By the numbers: The home team is 7-2 ATS in the past nine meetings. … The over is 10-1 in the past 11 meetings, including five straight overs in Atlanta. … Tampa Bay is 1-6 ATS as a road favorite and 1-5 ATS in its past six road games overall. … The Falcons have covered six of their past eight December games.

Pick: Buccaneers 28, Falcons 24

Colts (6-6) at Texans (2-9)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Colts -10, 44½

Analysis: With a winnable matchup this week before heading home to face the Patriots and then hitting the road to Arizona, this is a look-ahead spot for the Colts. I can’t back a team coming off a five-turnover game while struggling against the run, even if it’s playing against lowly Houston.

By the numbers: The Colts are 1-5 ATS against the AFC South and 2-5 ATS as favorites. … The Texans have been pretty good after poor offensive efforts, covering nine of their past 12 games after being limited to 15 points or less in their previous outing. … Houston is 6-2 ATS after an ATS loss.

Pick: Colts 26, Texans 23

Eagles (5-7) at Jets (3-8)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Eagles -6½, 45

Analysis: The Eagles are dealing with injuries to numerous players, including quarterback Jalen Hurts, who appeared to sprain his ankle last week. The Jets have shown signs of improvement defensively, but they still have to prove they can stop the run. And the Eagles will run the ball.

By the numbers: Philadelphia has covered five straight meetings against the Jets and is 9-4 ATS after an ATS loss. … New York is 1-6 ATS against teams with a losing record. … The under is 11-4 the game after the Jets allow 15 points or less.

Pick: Eagles 24, Jets 14

Chargers (1-4) at Bengals (2-4)

Time: 10 a.m., KLAS-8

Line/total: Bengals -3, 49½

Analysis: Almost every game is won in the trenches, and the Bengals’ offensive line has shown improvement since right guard Hakeem Adeniji returned from an injury. The strength of the offensive line has enabled Cincinnati to be much better on the ground than last season. The Bengals are third in the NFL in points per drive in the past six weeks.

By the numbers: The Chargers are 2-6 ATS in the past eight meetings and 1-5 ATS in their past six games overall. … Los Angeles is on a 7-3 over surge against teams with a winning record.

Pick: Bengals 31, Chargers 26

Giants (4-7) at Dolphins (5-7)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Dolphins -6½, 39½

Analysis: We’ll see if the Giants can build off last week’s win over the Eagles. But they will be without starting quarterback Daniel Jones, out with a neck injury. Journeyman QB Mike Glennon, 6-21 as a starter in his career, will start for New York.

By the numbers: The Giants are 21-7 ATS in their past 28 road games and 19-7-1 ATS against a team with a losing record. … Miami is on a 9-1 under run against teams with a losing record and riding a 20-6-1 under streak overall.

Pick: Dolphins 17, Giants 14

Football Team (5-6) at Raiders (6-5)

Time: 1:05 p.m., KVVU-5

Line/total: Raiders -1½, 49

Analysis: The Raiders will be without star tight end Darren Waller, who has a knee injury. They have had 10 days to prepare, and wide receiver DeSean Jackson is starting to become a major contributor on offense. For Jackson to stretch the field, the offensive line must play as well as it did in a 36-33 overtime win at Dallas on Thanksgiving.

By the numbers: Washington is 3-7 ATS in its past 10 games and 7-18-1 ATS after playing on “Monday Night Football.” … The Football Team is on an 11-2 under surge vs. teams with a winning record.

Pick: Raiders 24, Football Team 20

Ravens (8-3) at Steelers (5-5-1)

Time: 1:25 p.m.

Line/total: Ravens -4½, 44

Analysis: The venom that was spewing from Pittsburgh sports radio stations was loud all week long after the Steelers were crushed by the Bengals 41-10. Pittsburgh must win Sunday or its season is essentially over with a tough schedule the rest of the way. The Steelers will find success if there is improvement in their offensive line play.

By the numbers: The underdog is 20-7-3 ATS in the past 30 meetings. … The Steelers are 17-4-2 ATS as home underdogs and 34-16-3 ATS as underdogs overall. … Baltimore is 1-5 ATS in its past six games after an ATS win.

Pick: Ravens 23, Steelers 20

Jaguars (2-9) at Rams (7-4)

Time: 1:25 p.m.

Line/total: Rams -12½, 48

Analysis: This isn’t an endorsement for the Jaguars, but the Rams won’t be as interested in this game as they will be for next week’s matchup against the division-leading Cardinals. You can make the case that Jacksonville has wins over the Bills and Dolphins, and that three of its past six losses have been decided by one possession.

By the numbers: Jacksonville is 5-2 ATS as a road underdog. … The Rams are 1-7 ATS against teams with a losing record and 0-5 ATS in their past five games as favorites. … The Jaguars are riding a 6-0 under run overall and 10-1 under streak as underdogs.

Pick: Rams 26, Jaguars 16

49ers (6-5) at Seahawks (3-8)

Time: 1:25 p.m., KLAS-8

Line/total: 49ers -3, 45½

Analysis: The Seahawks aren’t enjoying their typical solid season under coach Pete Carroll. But one thing that has remained the same amid Seattle’s struggles has been its staunch red zone defense. The Seahawks rank No. 4 in touchdown percentage, allowing a 50 percent TD success rate. They will need that defense against the Niners, who have been strong in red zone offense. The Seahawks won at San Francisco in Week 4 because of their ability to win the battle inside the 20 and a first-half injury to Niners QB Jimmy Garoppolo.

By the numbers: San Francisco is 2-7-1 ATS in its past 10 games at Seattle and 5-14-1 ATS in the past 20 meetings overall. … The over is 5-1-1 in the past seven meetings. … The Niners are 4-10 ATS as favorites, and Seattle is 14-6 ATS as an underdog.

Pick: Seahawks 26, 49ers 24

Broncos (6-5) at Chiefs (7-4)

Time: 5:20 p.m., KSNV-3

Line/total: Chiefs -9½, 47

Analysis: The Broncos haven’t beaten the Chiefs since 2015, losing the past 11 meetings. This is a measuring-stick game for Denver. Kansas City has enjoyed a plus-20 turnover margin during its 11-game winning streak over the Broncos and has stopped Denver in virtually every trip to the red zone. The Chiefs have had two weeks to prepare.

By the numbers: The Broncos are 2-9 ATS in the past 11 meetings. … Denver is 3-7-1 ATS the week after a win of 14 points or more. … The Broncos are on a 21-6-1 under streak after a win. … Kansas City has an 11-3-1 under record the week after a bye.

Pick: Chiefs 24, Broncos 13

Patriots (8-4) at Bills (7-4)

Time: 5:15 p.m., ESPN

Line/total: Bills -3, 40½

Analysis: This is not what Buffalo fans anticipated when Tom Brady left New England for Tampa Bay. Their vision of a long reign as kings of the AFC East has been short-lived, as the Patriots lead the division. And New England is getting stronger after winning and covering six straight games. Bill Belichick is 35-7 in his career against the Bills, with two of those losses last season. This comes down to the containment of Bills QB Josh Allen, who has been turnover-prone lately.

By the numbers: New England is 15-2 in the past 17 meetings at Buffalo. … The Patriots are on a 5-1 under surge on “Monday Night Football” and 7-2 under run on the road.

Pick: Patriots 21, Bills 17