NFL betting breakdown: Week 14

NFL BETTING BREAKDOWN

Ted Sevransky/Teddy Covers, @teddy_covers, Sportsmemo.com

Colts (8-4) at Raiders (7-5)

Time: 1:05 p.m., KLAS-8

Line/total: Colts -3, 52½

Analysis: Colts running back Jonathan Taylor appears to be hitting his stride, gaining 181 yards on the ground the past two weeks. That’s bad news for a Raiders run defense than ranks No. 29 in the NFL, allowing 4.7 yards per carry. But Indianapolis didn’t score an offensive point after halftime last week, with a third-string tackle protecting immobile Philip Rivers’ blind side. The Raiders saved their season with a miracle last-second touchdown last week, and their offense should get a boost with RB Josh Jacobs and tackle Trent Brown expected to return.

By the numbers: Las Vegas’ five home games have averaged 58.2 points. … The Colts are 7-3 ATS in their past 10 games as favorites and 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games against teams with a winning record.

Pick: Raiders 28, Colts 24

Titans (8-4) at Jaguars (1-11)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Titans -7½, 52

Analysis: Jacksonville offensive coordinator Jay Gruden has built a productive offense around three second-tier quarterbacks and an undrafted rookie running back. Despite their consistent defensive struggles and 11-game losing streak, the Jaguars have covered the spread in four of their last five games. When these teams met in Week 2, Jacksonville outgained Tennessee by 126 yards and had seven more first downs, and the Titans won by only a field goal.

By the numbers: The Titans are on a 20-5 over streak with Ryan Tannehill at quarterback, and their games are averaging an NFL-high 57.1 points. … The Jaguars are 4-1 ATS vs. the AFC South.

Pick: Titans 30, Jaguars 27

Cowboys (3-9) at Bengals (2-9-1)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Cowboys -3, 43

Analysis: In the two games since Joe Burrow’s injury, Cincinnati has only 351 yards of total offense (3.6 ypp), with 72 yards coming on one passing play to Tyler Boyd. The key to disrupting Dallas’ offense is getting pressure on QB Andy Dalton. The Bengals’ defense is No. 31 in the league in sack percentage, and their secondary is decimated with injuries.

By the numbers: The Bengals are 4-0-1 ATS at home. … Road favorites of more than a field goal are 17-27 ATS this season, and Dallas is an NFL worst 2-10 ATS.

Pick: Cowboys 19, Bengals 10

Cardinals (6-6) at Giants (5-7)

Time: 10 a.m., KVVU-5

Line/total: Cardinals -2½, 46½

Analysis: The Giants have won four straight to claim a spot atop the NFC East, and the Cardinals have lost three straight to slip out of a playoff spot. New York’s defense ranks in the top 12 in several categories and is allowing 16.5 points per game during its winning streak. Giants QB Daniel Jones is expected to start. Arizona QB Kyler Murray is dealing with a shoulder injury and scrambling out of the pocket much less as a result.

By the numbers: The Giants are on a 7-1-1 ATS streak and an 8-2 ATS streak as underdogs. … Arizona is on an 0-5 spread skid.

Pick: Giants 20, Cardinals 19

Texans (4-8) at Bears (5-7)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Texans -2, 46

Analysis: As bad as the Bears have been during their six-game losing streak, RB David Montgomery has provided a spark. He’s averaged 127 yards from scrimmage the last two weeks and has scored three touchdowns. Houston ranks No. 31 in the NFL in rush defense (4.9 ypc). Even without WR Will Fuller in the lineup last week, Deshaun Watson averaged 9.0 yards per pass attempt against the strong Colts defense.

By the numbers: The Bears are on a 9-23 ATS slide. … The Texans are on a 4-9 ATS skid.

Pick: Texans 17, Bears 14

Broncos (4-8) at Panthers (4-8)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Panthers -3, 44½

Analysis: Denver cornerback Essang Bassey recently became the sixth Broncos defensive starter to be placed on injured reserve, and fellow cornerback A.J. Bouye has been suspended for the remainder of the season. Normally that would be a major red flag against a potent Carolina offense, but the Panthers have been dealing with a COVID outbreak after their bye week. Playmakers D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel were placed on the COVID-19 reserve list, and star RB Christian McCaffrey is battling a quad injury.

By the numbers: Carolina is 0-4 ATS as a favorite. … Denver is on a 24-12 under streak. … The Broncos are 6-2 ATS vs. teams with a losing record.

Pick: Broncos 23, Panthers 20

Vikings (6-6) at Buccaneers (7-5)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Buccaneers -6½, 53

Analysis: The Bucs lost three of their last four before their bye week. But all three losses came to elite foes in the Chiefs, Saints and Rams. Tampa Bay has been a good bully this season, going 4-1-1 ATS when laying six or more points against less than elite competition. After starting 1-5, the Vikings are now in the mix for a wild-card spot. But RB Dalvin Cook has been contained in recent weeks, and the Bucs defense ranks No. 1 in the NFL in yards per carry allowed (3.3).

By the numbers: Minnesota is 9-4 ATS on the road. … The Vikings are 4-0 ATS as underdogs. … Tampa Bay is on a 19-9 over run.

Pick: Bucs 31, Vikings 27

Chiefs (11-1) at Dolphins (8-4)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Chiefs -7, 50½

Analysis: The defending champs have looked somewhat vulnerable lately, potentially wearing down a bit after getting the opposition’s best shot every week. That said, Patrick Mahomes has an 18-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio during Kansas City’s seven-game winning streak. Dolphins offensive coordinator Chan Gailey and rookie QB Tua Tagovailoa got into a groove last week against Cincinnati, using a mix of up-tempo pace and no-huddle offense to bury the Bengals in the second half. But the Dolphins have been feasting on the weak, and the Chiefs certainly aren’t weak.

By the numbers: Miami is 14-5 as an underdog and an NFL-best 7-1 ATS in its last eight games. … The Chiefs are on an 0-4 ATS skid.

Pick: Chiefs 33, Dolphins 28

Jets (0-12) at Seahawks (8-4)

Time: 1:05 p.m.

Line/total: Seahawks -14, 47

Analysis: The Jets have a new defensive coordinator this week trying to fix a stop unit that has allowed an NFL-high 70.5 percent completion rate and ranks No. 31 in opponents’ yards per pass attempt (7.7). After the Seahawks got embarrassed in last week’s loss to the Giants as double-digit favorites, the Jets certainly look like an elixir for Russell Wilson’s recent slump. New York ranks last in time of possession and No. 31 in third-down conversion rate.

By the numbers: The Jets have lost four of their last five road games by double digits. … The Seahawks are 33-15-4 ATS after a loss.

Pick: Seahawks 30, Jets 18

Falcons (4-8) at Chargers (3-9)

Time: 1:25 p.m.

Line/total: Falcons -1½, 49

Analysis: The Chargers are coming off a true debacle in a 45-0 home loss to the Patriots. Los Angeles has averaged only 4.5 yards per play in its last four games; only the Bengals are worse. But the Falcons’ defense is allowing an NFC-high 8.0 yards per pass attempt, and their offense is riddled with key injuries. Atlanta will be without star receiver Julio Jones.

By the numbers: The Chargers are on a 4-13-2 spread slide. … Los Angeles has lost 16 of its last 20 games decided by one score. … Atlanta is 1-5 ATS as a road favorite.

Pick: Chargers 30, Falcons 21

Saints (10-2) at Eagles (3-8-1)

Time: 1:25 p.m., KVVU-5

Line/total: Saints -7½, 42½

Analysis: The Eagles supposedly got a spark from Jalen Hurts in last week’s blowout loss to the Packers. That said, Hurts completed only five passes while taking three sacks and throwing an interception, and multiple veterans were not happy with Carson Wentz’s benching. The Saints rank No. 2 in the NFL in yards per rush attempt and yards per play allowed. Taysom Hill matches up well against a Philly defense that has struggled to defend mobile quarterbacks.

By the numbers: The Eagles are on a 6-0 under streak, and the Saints are on a 5-0 under run. … New Orleans has won and covered all eight games not started by Drew Brees the past two seasons. … The Saints are riding an NFL-best 27-10-1 ATS streak on the road.

Pick: Saints 27, Eagles 7

Washington Football Team (5-7) at 49ers (5-7)

Time: 1:25 p.m.

Line/total: 49ers -3, 43½

Analysis: San Francisco is taking a major step down in class after a brutal scheduling stretch against the Seahawks, Packers, Rams, Bills and Saints as they settle into their new home field in Arizona. Kyle Shanahan has spent all week talking about how the Niners are still alive to make the playoffs as long as they beat Washington. That said, the Football Team is capable of dominating defensively. Washington ranks No. 4 in the NFL in sack rate, which is bad news for struggling 49ers backup QB Nick Mullens.

By the numbers: Washington is on a 6-2 under surge and is 4-1 ATS as an underdog. … The 49ers are 2-4 ATS as favorites. … Since Jimmy Garoppolo’s first start for the 49ers, they’re 24-9 in games he started and 5-14 in games he hasn’t started.

Pick: 49ers 20, Washington 18

Packers (9-3) at Lions (5-7)

Time: 1:25 p.m.

Line/total: Packers -8, 54½

Analysis: The Packers have beaten the Lions by more than a touchdown only once in their last 11 meetings, a 42-21 win this season. Interim Detroit coach Darrell Bevell has changed the Lions’ practice routine, and spirits are high as they try to knock Green Bay out of the top spot in the NFC. But Detroit’s attitude adjustment won’t help Matthew Stafford’s thumb issues or the cluster of injuries in its secondary. Green Bay’s offense is No. 2 in the NFL in yards per play (6.3), and Detroit’s defense is No. 28 in ypp allowed (6.0).

By the numbers: The Lions are on an 11-1 over run at home. … The Packers are 7-3 ATS as favorites and 5-2 ATS vs. the NFC North.

Pick: Packers 38, Lions 13

Steelers (11-1) at Bills (9-3)

Time: 5:20 p.m., KSNV-3

Line/total: Bills -2, 49

Analysis: Pittsburgh’s offense has sputtered in each of its last two games, perhaps partly because of recent scheduling adjustments. This will be the Steelers’ third game in 11 days, and they’re coming off a home loss to Washington. The Bills’ defense has looked vulnerable against some of the better offenses it has faced. But Pittsburgh has injuries at linebacker, and Buffalo’s Josh Allen is making his case to be an elite quarterback.

By the numbers: The Steelers are 21-7-2 ATS as underdogs. … Pittsburgh is riding a 31-4-2 under streak on the road when the total is less than 49. … The Bills are 5-1 ATS as home favorites.

Pick: Bills 34, Steelers 27

Ravens (7-5) at Browns (9-3)

Time: 5:15 p.m. Monday, ESPN

Line/total: Ravens -2½, 46½

Analysis: This is a short week for Baltimore, which is playing its third game in 12 days. The Ravens beat the Browns 38-6 in Week 1. But that was Cleveland coach Kevin Stefanski’s debut in a year with no preseason. The Browns are 9-3, but the betting markets continue to look at them as a team with a -15 point differential. The Ravens have a +85 point differential, fifth-best in the league. But Baltimore has lingering COVID-19 issues that could leave key contributors sidelined.

By the numbers: The Ravens are 6-1 ATS vs. the AFC North, 6-0 ATS in December and 8-3 ATS on the road. … The Browns are 7-19 ATS as home underdogs.

Pick: Browns 26, Ravens 24