NFL betting breakdown: Week 4

Mark Franco, FrancoSports.com

Bills (3-0) at Raiders (2-1)

Time: 1:25 p.m., KLAS-8

Line/total: Bills -3½, 52½

Analysis: The Raiders were in a bad spot last week at New England after a Monday night win, and it showed in the second half. Las Vegas is dealing with injuries at many spots. Buffalo’s defense has finished in the top three in the NFL in yards allowed per game in two of the past three seasons. But the Bills are 21st in the league this season in yards allowed (380.7 ypg) after blowing a 28-3 lead to the Rams before QB Josh Allen helped them pull out a 35-32 win.

By the numbers: Buffalo is 14-22-2 ATS as a road favorite vs. opponents coming off a loss. … The Bills are 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs. the Raiders. … Las Vegas is 4-1 ATS in its last five games after a straight-up loss of more than 14 points. … The Raiders are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games as home underdogs.

Pick: Bills 24, Raiders 20

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Saints (1-2) at Lions (1-2)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Saints -3, 54

Analysis: Drew Brees just does not look like himself. More important, the Saints gave up 34 points to Las Vegas and 37 to Green Bay in dropping their last two games. The Lions edged Arizona on the road, 26-23, for their first win. Detroit wide receiver Kenny Golladay came back last week and caught six passes for 57 yards and a touchdown. Running back Adrian Peterson still has something left, averaging 4.9 yards per carry.

By the numbers: Detroit is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games in Week 4. … The Saints are 35-17 ATS in their last 52 road games. … The over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.

Pick: Lions 29, Saints 27

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Cardinals (2-1) at Panthers (1-2)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Cardinals -3, 51

Analysis: Arizona is coming off its first loss, to the Lions. Carolina cashed as a 6-point underdog to the Chargers after pulling off a 21-16 upset at Los Angeles. The Cardinals will not have it easy on the East Coast in an early start and have concerns on an injury-depleted defense.

By the numbers: The Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as favorites. … The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.

Pick: Panthers 27, Cardinals 20

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Jaguars (1-2) at Bengals (0-2-1)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Bengals -2½, 49

Analysis: Not much to get excited about in this matchup of struggling squads. The Bengals have the better quarterback in rookie Joe Burrow. Look for Cincinnati’s offense to shine a bit like the Dolphins did last week against Jacksonville’s defense.

By the numbers: The Jaguars are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as road underdogs. … The Bengals are 4-1 ATS in their last five games in Week 4.

Pick: Bengals 23, Jaguars 18

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Browns (2-1) at Cowboys (1-2)

Time: 10 a.m., KVVU-5

Line/total: Cowboys -4½, 56

Analysis: The Browns have delivered decisive victories in the last two weeks — albeit over Washington and Cincinnati — and their offense should continue to click against a bad Dallas defense. The Cowboys have talent but no heart. Look for the Cleveland pass rush to have a solid day.

By the numbers: The Browns are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games in Week 4. … The Cowboys are 2-8 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. … Dallas is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games in Week 4.

Pick: Browns 27, Cowboys 24

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Vikings (0-3) at Texans (0-3)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Texans -3½, 53½

Analysis: Not much interest from me in this matchup of winless teams. The Vikings were in Nashville last week and lost 31-30 to the Titans before an outbreak of positive coronavirus tests in Tennessee’s organization caused the NFL to reschedule its game this week against Pittsburgh. Do not have a lean on either side.

By the numbers: Minnesota is 8-2-1 ATS in its past 11 games in October and 39-14 ATS in its last 53 games after a straight-up loss. … Houston is 10-4-1 ATS in its last 15 games after an ATS loss. … The Texans are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games.

Pick: Texans 23, Vikings 21

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Seahawks (3-0) at Dolphins (1-2)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Seahawks -5½, 54

Analysis: The Seahawks have been impressive, but this could be a letdown spot. Seattle’s defense has not been up to par. The Dolphins and QB Ryan Fitzpatrick played their best game Sept. 24 in a 31-13 win at Jacksonville. But that was against the lowly Jags. This should be a fun game to watch, and I like it to go over the high total.

By the numbers: The over is 8-3 in Seattle’s last 11 games vs. a team with a losing record, and it’s 13-5 in the Seahawks’ past 18 games after a straight-up win. … The over is 5-0 in Miami’s last five games as a home underdog.

Pick: Seahawks 31, Dolphins 28

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Chargers (1-2) at Buccaneers (2-1)

Time: 10 a.m., KLAS-8

Line/total: Buccaneers -7, 42½

Analysis: Tom Brady has led Tampa Bay to two straight victories after a season-opening loss at New Orleans. Brady is 9-2 against the Chargers. Los Angeles is expected to start rookie QB Justin Herbert, who has performed well in two starts, passing for more than 300 yards in each game while completing almost 70 percent of his throws. He will have a rough day against this underrated Bucs defense.

By the numbers: The Chargers are 11-4-2 ATS in their past 17 road games and 8-3-2 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog. … Tampa Bay is 7-18-1 ATS in its last 26 games as a home favorite and 1-6-2 ATS in its last nine home games.

Pick: Chargers 23, Buccaneers 20

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Ravens (2-1) at Washington (1-2)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Ravens -14, 45½

Analysis: Reigning NFL MVP Lamar Jackson struggled in Monday’s 34-20 home loss to the Chiefs, throwing for 97 yards and rushing for 83. The Ravens have a short week to forget about their woes and will take out their frustrations on Washington. The Football Team is coming off a 34-20 loss at Cleveland, and injured rookie defensive end Chase Young isn’t expected to play.

By the numbers: Baltimore is 5-0 ATS in its last five games as a road favorite and 11-3 ATS in its past 14 games overall. … Washington is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games after an ATS loss.

Pick: Ravens 34, Washington 17

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Giants (0-3) at Rams (2-1)

Time: 1:05 p.m.

Line/total: Rams -13, 48

Analysis: The Rams trailed by 25 points in the third quarter at Buffalo before storming back with four consecutive touchdowns to take a short-lived 32-28 lead in a 35-32 loss. The Giants are one of the worst teams in the league. QB Daniel Jones ranks 22nd in passing yards (699) and 28th in completion percentage (60.2). The Giants’ running game isn’t a factor without running back Saquon Barkley.

By the numbers: New York is 1-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and 5-11-2 ATS in its last 18 road games against a team with a winning home record. … The Rams are 6-0 ATS in their last six games after an ATS loss and 5-1-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

Pick: Rams 34, Giants 13

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Colts (2-1) at Bears (3-0)

Time: 1:25 p.m.

Line/total: Colts -2½, 43

Analysis: The Colts are coming off an impressive rout, even though it was against the Jets. Indianapolis had two pick-sixes and is ranked first in total defense (225 yards per game allowed) and scoring defense (15 points per game allowed). The Bears are fortunate to be 3-0 after comeback wins over the Lions and Falcons and a win over the Giants. Chicago quarterback Nick Foles was red-hot last week in the fourth quarter, but faces a much bigger challenge against the Colts.

By the numbers: The Colts are 11-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. … The Bears are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games in October and 0-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Pick: Colts 24, Bears 17

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Eagles (0-2-1) at 49ers (2-1)

Time: 5:20 p.m., KSNV-3

Line/total: 49ers -7, 45

Analysis: Two injury-riddled teams take the stage. The Eagles have been hit by injuries to eight wide receivers and tight ends, and the 49ers have used two quarterbacks and dealt with several injuries on defense. San Francisco has allowed one TD in the last two weeks in wins over the Jets and Giants. Philadelphia QB Carson Wentz has been sacked 11 times. Niners backup QB Nick Mullens threw for 343 yards in last week’s 36-9 thumping of the Giants.

By the numbers: Philadelphia is 1-5 ATS in its last six games after an ATS loss and is 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. … The 49ers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games in Week 4, but 7-19-1 ATS in their past 27 games as home favorites.

Pick: 49ers 31, Eagles 10

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Falcons (0-3) at Packers (3-0)

Time: 5:15 p.m. Monday, ESPN

Line/total: Packers -7, 57

Analysis: Atlanta coach Dan Quinn is sitting squarely on the hot seat and might need an upset victory to retain his job. But that is not going to happen, and I’m surprised he’s not gone after the Falcons blew double-digit fourth-quarter leads in back-to-back weeks. Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers and the rest of the Packers are likely salivating over seeing the Falcons on the slate at Lambeau Field. The Packers lead the league in scoring (40.7) and are second in total offense (459.7 ypg). Rodgers’ relationship with coach Matt LaFleur has improved since last season.

By the numbers: The Falcons are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games in October. … The Packers are 5-1 ATS in their past six games as home favorites and 4-1 ATS in their last five vs. NFC teams.

Pick: Packers 37, Falcons 20