NFL betting breakdown: Week 4

BETTING BREAKDOWN

Mark Franco, FrancoSports.com

Football Team (1-2) at Falcons (1-2)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Football Team -1½, 47½

Analysis: Washington has been a major disappointment with its defense being downright leaky, yielding 432 yards per game, which ranks 31st in the NFL. The Falcons have been underachievers on offense with quarterback Matt Ryan and a weak running game that averages 82.7 yards. This is a tough one to call, but I lean to the under.

By the numbers: Washington is 4-11 ATS on the road against an opponent that won the previous week. … The Falcons are 19-31 ATS in their last 50 games started by Ryan. … The under is 10-1 in the Football Team’s past 11 games in October and 6-1 in Atlanta’s last seven games in October.

Pick: Football Team 19, Falcons 17

Lions (0-3) at Bears (1-2)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Bears -3, 42

Analysis: Chicago mustered 47 total yards against Cleveland in its worst offensive outing in 40 years. But the Bears’ struggles are nothing new for this Matt Nagy offense, which has been so bad I predict he will be the first coach to get fired this season. The Lions have played hard for first-year coach Dan Campbell, but the defense still gives up too many points at 31.7 per game.

By the numbers: Chicago is 10-5 ATS at home after losing by 20 points or more the previous week but 1-6 ATS vs. the NFC. … The Lions are 3-6-1 ATS vs. the Bears. … Chicago is on a 12-3 under streak against teams with a winning percentage of 40 percent or less.

Pick: Bears 21, Lions 20

Titans (2-1) at Jets (0-3)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Titans -6, 44½

Analysis: After Tennessee was crushed by Arizona in the season opener, it’s playing like I expected it would with a comeback win at Seattle and nice win and cover against the Colts. The Jets’ offense is a work in progress with a league-worst 6.7 points per game. The Titans and running back Derrick Henry should be able to run all over the Jets with quarterback Ryan Tannehill being successful passing out of the pocket even without his top wideouts in injured A.J. Brown and Julio Jones.

By the numbers: The Titans are 15-10 ATS as a favorite of at least seven points and 9-6 ATS on the road with Tannehill as the starting quarterback. … Tennessee is on an 8-2 over run on the road with Tannehill as the starter. … The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.

Pick: Titans 35, Jets 16

Browns (2-1) at Vikings (1-2)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Browns -1½, 51½

Analysis: Minnesota has a losing record, but was close to being undefeated after a 27-24 overtime loss at Cincinnati in Week 1 and a 34-33 loss at Arizona in Week 2. Last week, the Vikings played a complete game in a 30-17 home win over Seattle. Kirk Cousins is off to a great start, averaging more than 300 yards per game with eight touchdowns and no turnovers. The Browns defense has been solid, dominating the Bears last week with nine sacks while allowing only 47 yards.

By the numbers: Cleveland is 3-12 ATS vs. the NFC North and 2-8 ATS as a road favorite. … Minnesota is 6-2 ATS as an underdog and 36-22-1 ATS at home under coach Mike Zimmer. … The Vikings are on a 10-2 over run at home.

Pick: Vikings 31, Browns 28

Colts (0-3) at Dolphins (1-2)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Dolphins -2½, 42½

Analysis: The Dolphins played well after their 35-0 loss to the Bills by nearly upsetting the Raiders in overtime last week. Miami has a knack for taking the ball away, and that spells trouble for banged-up Indianapolis QB Carson Wentz, who has been a disappointment.

By the numbers: The Colts are 1-4 ATS vs. the AFC. … The Dolphins are 8-0 ATS at home vs. a team with a losing road record and are 12-2 ATS after a loss.

Pick: Dolphins 23, Colts 19

Panthers (3-0) at Cowboys (2-1)

Time: 10 a.m., KVVU-5

Line/total: Cowboys -4, 51½

Analysis: The Panthers have had a few extra days to prepare after last week’s win and cover over Houston. The Cowboys are on a short week after routing the Eagles on Monday. The question is whether to take Dallas’ high-flying offense or Carolina’s top-ranked defense, which allows 191 yards per game. This line is too inflated from the blowout on “Monday Night Football.”

By the numbers: Carolina is riding a 6-0 cover streak as a road underdog and 8-0 ATS on the road overall. … Dallas is 4-11 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and 2-7 ATS as a favorite. … The Panthers are on a 6-0 under run, and the Cowboys are on a 4-1 under run as favorites.

Pick: Panthers 31, Cowboys 27

Giants (0-3) at Saints (2-1)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Saints -7, 42

Analysis: The Giants are not playing as well on offense as expected. When you can’t score more than 14 points against the Falcons, you have problems. Running back Saquon Barkley is nowhere near the level he was at as a rookie and isn’t close to 100 percent. The Saints’ offense is still trying to find itself and is ranked 31st in the league. I see a slower-paced game that might keep the Giants in it until the fourth quarter.

By the numbers: New York is 8-2 ATS as a road underdog. … New Orleans is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 home games in October. … The Giants are riding a 9-1 under streak.

Pick: Saints 23, Giants 17

Chiefs (1-2) at Eagles (1-2)

Time: 10 a.m., KLAS-8

Line/total: Chiefs -6½, 54½

Analysis: QB Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense will get back on track. I expect the Eagles, with their defensive problems, to have a tough time slowing Kansas City. Philadelphia also is on a short week after its 20-point loss Monday at Dallas.

By the numbers: The Chiefs are 1-8-1 ATS as a favorite. … The Eagles are 2-4-1 ATS at home after playing on “Monday Night Football.” … Kansas City is on an 11-4-1 over streak in Week 4.

Pick: Chiefs 37, Eagles 20

Texans (1-2) at Bills (2-1)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Bills -17, 47

Analysis: Josh Allen is coming off a sensational performance against Washington in which he completed 32 of 43 passes for 358 yards and four touchdowns in a 43-21 victory. The Bills can almost score at will against weak teams such as Houston. Texans rookie QB Davis Mills will be making his first NFL road start.

By the numbers: Houston is on a 9-16 spread slide. … Buffalo is 8-2 ATS as a favorite and 11-4 ATS in Allen’s last 15 starts. … The Bills are on an 8-2 over run as favorites of a touchdown or more.

Pick: Bills 33, Texans 16

Cardinals (3-0) at Rams (3-0)

Time: 1:05 p.m.

Line/total: Rams -4, 54½

Analysis: This might be the most entertaining game of the week. The Cardinals are excelling on offense behind QB Kyler Murray, winning and covering their first three games. The Rams won a big game over the Buccaneers last week and are playing like the NFC favorites they are. This should be a high-scoring game, with Los Angeles getting the best of the Arizona defense.

By the numbers: The Cardinals are 4-11 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. … Los Angeles is 5-2 ATS vs. the NFC West.

Pick: Rams 31, Cardinals 24

Seahawks (1-2) at 49ers (2-1)

Time: 1:05 p.m.

Line/total: 49ers -2½, 52

Analysis: The Seahawks’ defense is the worst in the NFL, giving up 440 yards per game. Things will not get any easier against the 49ers. I see a close game, but the 49ers will score enough points, while Seattle QB Russell Wilson plays well but not good enough.

By the numbers: Seattle is 1-7 ATS on the road and 1-6 ATS vs. the NFC. … The Niners are 4-1 ATS vs. the NFC West. … The Seahawks are on a 9-3 under run.

Pick: 49ers 23, Seahawks 20

Ravens (2-1) at Broncos (3-0)

Time: 1:25 p.m.

Line/total: Pick, 44½

Analysis: Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson missed practice Wednesday and Thursday with a back injury but will play. He will have issues vs. the Broncos’ defense, as the Ravens won’t be able to run the ball. Look for Denver QB Teddy Bridgewater and Co. to do enough on offense.

By the numbers: The Broncos are 10-4 ATS vs. the AFC. … The Ravens are 8-2 ATS on the road against a team with a winning record. … All three Denver games have stayed under the total.

Pick: Broncos 22, Ravens 17

Steelers (1-2) at Packers (2-1)

Time: 1:25 p.m., KLAS-8

Line/total: Packers -6, 45½

Analysis: The Packers have played much better on both sides of the ball since their Week 1 debacle against the Saints. Green Bay’s offense has shown it’s still a factor behind QB Aaron Rogers and his weapons. The Steelers are a mess on offense, averaging 16.7 points, and QB Ben Roethlisberger appears to be in the twilight of his career. Pittsburgh’s defense will have a hard time containing the Packers.

By the numbers: The Steelers are on a 3-7 ATS slide. … Green Bay is 10-5 ATS vs. the AFC. … Pittsburgh is on a 12-5 under streak after a straight-up loss.

Pick: Packers 34, Steelers 17

Buccaneers (2-1) at Patriots (1-2)

Time: 5:20 p.m., KSNV-3

Line/total: Bucs -7, 49½

Analysis: After all the media hype surrounding the Tom Brady-Bill Belichick soap opera, it comes down to playing the game. It’s a given that the Bucs are head and shoulders above the Patriots, but this one might come down to New England rookie QB Mac Jones vs. a Tampa Bay defense that’s a little banged up.

By the numbers: Tampa Bay is 5-0 ATS after an ATS loss. … The Patriots are 4-9-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. … The Bucs are riding a 27-10 over streak on the road.

Pick: Bucs 30, Patriots 19

Raiders (3-0) at Chargers (2-1)

Time: 5:15 p.m. Monday, ESPN

Line/total: Chargers -3, 51½

Analysis: The Raiders have the No. 1 offense in the league, averaging 471 yards, and QB Derek Carr is playing at an MVP level. Chargers QB Justin Herbert was awesome against the Chiefs in last week’s win, and that should continue, even though the Raiders’ defense has been solid.

By the numbers: The Raiders are 6-1 ATS on “Monday Night Football.” … The Raiders are riding an 11-3-1 over streak against the AFC and a 14-4-1 over run overall.

Pick: Raiders 30, Chargers 27