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NFL betting breakdown: Week 7

Updated October 24, 2020 - 2:09 pm

Ted Sevransky/Teddy Covers, @teddy_covers, Sportsmemo.com

Browns (4-2) at Bengals (1-4-1)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Browns -3½, 50½

Analysis: The Browns beat the Bengals 35-30 in Week 2 in a game in which Cincinnati converted five fourth downs to keep it close. Cleveland’s streak of four consecutive games scoring at least 32 points came to a halt last week at Pittsburgh. Baker Mayfield’s bruised ribs clearly affected him, but the Bengals have been noncompetitive after halftime in each of the past two weeks.

By the numbers: The over is 5-0-1 in the past six meetings between these divisional rivals. … The Bengals are 10-2 ATS in the past 12 meetings. … Cleveland is 16-39-1 ATS when coming off a straight-up loss. … Cincinnati is 4-12 ATS in its last 16 home games.

Pick: Browns 31, Bengals 21

Cowboys (2-4) at Washington (1-5)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Pick, 45

Analysis: The Cowboys dropped to 0-6 ATS with an ugly blowout loss at home to Arizona on “Monday Night Football.” Andy Dalton is no Dak Prescott, and the Cowboys’ defense just tied an NFL record for futility, allowing 34 points or more in five straight games of the same season. Washington has the youngest offense in the NFL, and its coach is dealing with in-season cancer treatments. Tie time?

By the numbers: The Cowboys have won and covered each of the last three meetings, with all three of those games flying over the total. … The over is 8-1 in the last nine meetings. … The Cowboys are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games vs. the NFC East.

Pick: Cowboys 23, Washington 23

Lions (2-3) at Falcons (1-5)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Falcons -2½, 55

Analysis: Atlanta responded well to the Dan Quinn firing, playing its best game of the season on both sides of the football in a blowout win at Minnesota last week. The Lions gained a season-high 180 yards on the ground in their rout of the Jaguars. All three Detroit losses have been to solid winning teams, and Falcons interim coach Raheem Morris might find it difficult to conjure up last week’s magic twice in a row.

By the numbers: The Lions are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games of the Matt Patricia era. … Detroit is on a 3-9 ATS slide as an underdog and 3-10-1 ATS after a win by 14 points or more. … Atlanta has won five straight against teams with a losing record.

Pick: Lions 33, Falcons 28

Panthers (3-3) at Saints (3-2)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Saints -7, 50

Analysis: The Saints lost their top two wide receivers Friday, with Michael Thomas dealing with a bad hamstring and Emmanuel Sanders on the COVID-19 list. New Orleans is on an 0-3 ATS skid after its bye week, losing 26-9 to Atlanta as a 14-point favorite after last year’s bye. Carolina struggled against Chicago’s strong pass defense last week, but the Saints have allowed opposing quarterbacks to notch a 108 rating against them.

By the numbers: The underdog in this divisional rivalry is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings. … The Panthers are 15-5 ATS in the last 20 meetings in New Orleans. … Teddy Bridgewater is 30-10 ATS as a starting quarterback.

Pick: Panthers 24, Saints 20

Bills (4-2) at Jets (0-6)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Bills -10, 46

Analysis: Bookmakers have been rooting against the Jets every week, as New York isn’t receiving much betting market support. This week, Joe Flacco is mercifully back on the bench, with Sam Darnold expected back behind center. Darnold led the Jets to two second-half TD drives in a 10-point Week 1 loss at Buffalo, which has struggled defensively recently.

By the numbers: The Jets are 0-6 ATS, failing to cover the spread by an average of more than 11 points per game. … Divisional road favorites of -8 or higher (like Buffalo) are on a 30-7-1 under streak (including the high-powered Chiefs). … The last 19 double-digit road favorites in the NFL have gone 16-2-1 ATS.

Pick: Bills 32, Jets 24

Packers (4-1) at Texans (1-5)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Packers -3½, 57

Analysis: Green Bay has suffered five losses in the Matt LaFleur era. One was by a TD, but the other four were ugly blowouts, like the one the Packers suffered in Tampa Bay last week. Analytics gurus loved when Romeo Crennel went for the 2-point conversion up seven last week, but Texans bettors weren’t nearly as appreciative when it resulted in a brutal overtime loss.

By the numbers: The Texans are on an 0-6 ATS slide as underdogs. … Green Bay is 5-0 ATS in its last five games following a straight-up loss and 10-1 ATS in its past 11 tries after an ATS loss.

Pick: Packers 28, Texans 27

Steelers (5-0) at Titans (5-0)

Time: 10 a.m., KLAS-8

Line/total: Titans -1½, 50½

Analysis: The Titans had the NFL’s top red-zone offense last season after Ryan Tannehill took over for Marcus Mariota behind center. Over the last two weeks, that red-zone prowess has been on full display: eight TDs in 10 opportunities. But the Steelers are the only team that hasn’t allowed 100 points this season, and their +62 point differential ranks second in the NFL.

By the numbers: The Titans are 16-0 straight up when Derrick Henry rushes for 100 yards or more, but Pittsburgh hasn’t allowed a 100-yard rusher this season. … The Steelers are on a 34-6-2 under streak in the Mike Tomlin era when they’re road favorites or underdogs of five points or fewer.

Pick: Steelers 24, Titans 21

Buccaneers (4-2) at Raiders (3-2)

Time: 1:05 p.m., KVVU-5

Line/total: Bucs -3½, 52

Analysis: The Raiders’ entire offensive line is in COVID-19 protocol, leaving open the possibility that Derek Carr will be playing behind five reserve linemen. While Tom Brady’s early-season numbers are mediocre at best, the Bucs’ nasty defense is likely to be the best unit on the field.

By the numbers: The Raiders are on a 6-1 cover streak as home underdogs under Jon Gruden, including a double-digit win over the Saints in their Allegiant Stadium opener in Week 2. … Tampa Bay is 4-1 ATS as a road favorite, but 1-5-1 ATS against an opponent with a winning record (the win was last week against Green Bay).

Pick: Bucs 23, Raiders 20

49ers (3-3) at Patriots (2-3)

Time: 1:25 p.m.

Line/total: Patriots -2½, 44½

Analysis: The Patriots have lost two straight and looked completely lost on offense last week after missing extended practice time because of COVID-19 issues. The last time New England lost three straight was in 2002, which was also the last season they didn’t win 10 games. The 49ers have an injury list that is as ugly as any in the NFL, but they saved their season with last week’s win over division rival Los Angeles.

By the numbers: The Patriots are 9-2 ATS off back-to-back ATS losses and are riding a 49-24-1 cover streak coming off a loss in the Bill Belichick era. … San Francisco is 6-1 ATS as an underdog, including last week’s straight-up win over the Rams.

Pick: Patriots 21, 49ers 16

Chiefs (5-1) at Broncos (2-3)

Time: 1:25 p.m., KLAS-8

Line/total: Chiefs -7½, 44

Analysis: The weather forecast in Denver is calling for snow throughout the game with temperatures in the teens. The injury-riddled Broncos have gotten a little bit healthier, and they’ve won two straight since their 0-3 start. Patrick Mahomes has a 15-1 TD-to-interception ratio, and the Chiefs’ defense has stepped up repeatedly, holding foes to 21 points per game.

By the numbers: Kansas City is 9-0 straight up and 8-1 ATS in its last nine meetings against its AFC West rival. … Denver is 8-1 ATS in its last nine October games, including two wins and covers this month. … The Broncos are 13-6 as home underdogs. … The Chiefs are on a 6-0 under run on the road.

Pick: Chiefs 24, Broncos 13

Jaguars (1-5) at Chargers (1-4)

Time: 1:25 p.m.

Line/total: Chargers -7½, 49

Analysis: Gardner Minshew completed 95 percent of his passes with three TDs in the season opener. But in five losses since then, he has eight TD passes, with five coming with the Jaguars trailing by double digits. The Chargers come out of their bye as healthy as they’ve been all season, and QB Justin Herbert is ranked third in the NFL in yards per pass attempt (8.5).

By the numbers: The Chargers are 2-10 ATS as favorites under coach Anthony Lynn, losing nine of those games outright. … Los Angeles is 3-13 straight up in one-score games dating to last season. … The Jaguars are 4-9 ATS as underdogs under coach Doug Marrone, and they haven’t covered a spread since Week 2.

Pick: Chargers 30, Jaguars 14

Seahawks (5-0) at Cardinals (4-2)

Time: 5:20 p.m., KSNV-3

Line/total: Seahawks -3½, 55

Analysis: While Seattle QB Russell Wilson has deserved every accolade he’s gotten this season, the Seahawks’ defense has been a sieve, allowing 6.2 yards per play. Only Atlanta and Jacksonville have been worse. Arizona has lost by more than a field goal only once, and it beat Seattle as an eight-point underdog in their most recent meeting.

By the numbers: Seattle is 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven meetings with division rival Arizona, though the win came last year in Phoenix. … The Seahawks are 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 road games under coach Pete Carroll. … Arizona is 4-0-1 ATS as an underdog.

Pick: Seahawks 30, Cardinals 28

Bears (5-1) at Rams (4-2)

Time: 5:15 p.m. Monday, ESPN

Line/total: Rams -6, 45

Analysis: It’s hard to trust Jared Goff laying points against the Bears’ quality defense, and the Rams have yet to beat a team outside the woeful NFC East. Chicago isn’t pretty to watch. Nick Foles is averaging fewer than 6 yards per pass attempt, and David Montgomery averages 3.7 yards per carry. But the Bears’ defense has lived up to expectations.

By the numbers: The two previous meetings between Matt Nagy and Sean McVay as head coaches have produced 24 and 21 points, both easy unders. … Chicago is riding a 4-0 cover streak on Monday night. But it’s 1-5 ATS after an ATS win. … Los Angeles is 7-1 ATS in its last eight tries after an ATS loss.

Pick: Bears 19, Rams 17

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