NFL betting breakdown: Week 8
BETTING BREAKDOWN
Alex B. Smith, @axsmithsports, axsmithsports.com, AgainstTheNumber.com
Dolphins (1-6) at Bills (4-2)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Bills -14, 48½
Analysis: Buffalo has a clear path to the AFC East title and can pull another step closer with a division victory over a Miami squad that is on its third road trip in the past four weeks. The Bills crushed the Dolphins 35-0 in Week 2.
By the numbers: The Dolphins are on a 2-7 ATS slide. But they’re 10-5 ATS in their past 15 games as road underdogs. … The Bills are riding a 12-2 cover streak and are 4-1-1 ATS after a bye.
Pick: Bills 45, Dolphins 23
Panthers (3-4) at Falcons (3-3)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Falcons -3, 46½
Analysis: Two NFC South foes clash in Atlanta looking to keep pace in the wild-card playoff race. The Panthers, coming off a 25-3 loss to the Giants, look to find offensive stability against a Falcons team that narrowly beat the Dolphins, 30-28. Carolina coach Matt Rhule has said that quarterback Sam Darnold will start after being benched last week. But the Panthers will be without star running back Christian McCaffrey again.
By the numbers: Carolina is on a four-game losing streak straight up and ATS. … The Falcons have won and covered six of the past seven meetings and are 6-3 ATS when favored at home against a divisional opponent.
Pick: Falcons 31, Panthers 24
Eagles (2-5) at Lions (0-7)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Eagles -3½, 48
Analysis: The Eagles and Lions seem to be well past the point of return to make any noise this season. But Detroit was still competitive last week in a 28-19 loss to the Rams that was closer than the score indicates. Philadelphia dropped a 33-22 decision to the Raiders that saw the Eagles score two touchdowns late in the game.
By the numbers: The Eagles are on a 3-7 ATS skid and are 5-14 ATS as road favorites vs. nondivisional opponents. … The Lions are 3-6 ATS before a bye. … The over has cashed in seven straight meetings.
Pick: Eagles 29, Lions 24
Titans (5-2) at Colts (3-4)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Colts -2½, 51
Analysis: This is a big showdown between the top two teams in the AFC South. Tennessee is coming off consecutive wins over Buffalo and Kansas City, crushing the struggling Chiefs 27-3 last week. The Colts are looking to reach the .500 mark after beating San Francisco 30-18 on the road. The Titans defeated the Colts 25-16 in Week 3.
By the numbers: Tennessee is 5-2 ATS on the road vs. division opponents. … The Colts have covered four straight games, with three outright wins. But Indianapolis has lost three of its past four games as a divisional home favorite.
Pick: Titans 27, Colts 17
Rams (6-1) at Texans (1-6)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Rams -16, 47
Analysis: Los Angeles kept Detroit winless last week in a 28-19 home victory and now looks to beat up on another hapless foe in Houston, which was hammered 31-5 last week by Arizona. The Texans have been held to single digits in four of their past five games.
By the numbers: Houston is on a 1-4 spread skid overall and is 4-11 ATS in its past 15 games vs. the NFC. … The Rams are 20-8 ATS on the road against teams that allow 26 points or more. The Texans are tied for 27th in the NFL in scoring defense, allowing 29 points per game.
Pick: Rams 38, Texans 24
Bengals (5-2) at Jets (1-5)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Bengals -11, 43
Analysis: Things continue to turn sour for the Jets, who will be without injured rookie quarterback Zach Wilson. New York will turn to Mike White to make his first career start. Cincinnati is atop the AFC North and will look to keep its offense rolling after blowing out Baltimore 41-17 last week.
By the numbers: The Jets are on a 1-6 ATS skid. … New York has gone over the total in three straight games. … The Bengals were on a five-game under streak before going over the total last week.
Pick: Bengals 31, Jets 13
Steelers (3-3) at Browns (4-3)
Time: 10 a.m. KLAS-8
Line/total: Browns -4, 43
Analysis: This heated rivalry is renewed in “The Dawg Pound,” where Browns backup QB Case Keenum will make his second start after leading Cleveland to a 20-17 win over Denver in Week 7. Pittsburgh is looking to get back into form after a much-needed bye week. The Steelers are 1-4 ATS in their past five games. But they have fared well against the Browns, going 17-3-1 ATS in their past 21 meetings.
By the numbers: Pittsburgh is 12-4 ATS as a road underdog but 3-7 ATS after a bye. … The Browns are on an 0-8 spread slide vs. division opponents.
Pick: Steelers 27, Browns 24 (OT)
Niners (2-4) at Bears (3-4)
Time: 10 a.m., KVVU-5
Line/total: Niners -4, 39½
Analysis: The 49ers look to bounce back after a rain-soaked home loss to the Colts last week. San Francisco will try to get its defense going against rookie QB Justin Fields and a hapless Bears offense that mustered three points in last week’s blowout loss at Tampa Bay. The Chicago faithful can only wonder how long coach Matt Nagy will stick around, despite the Bears being just a game below .500. Nagy won’t coach Sunday, as he remains in COVID-19 protocol.
By the numbers: The Niners are on a 4-11 ATS slide. … The Bears are 8-3 ATS in their past 11 games as home underdogs vs. nondivisional opponents. … Chicago is on a six-game under run.
Pick: Bears 27, Niners 20
Jaguars (1-5) at Seahawks (2-5)
Time: 1:05 p.m.
Line/total: Seahawks -3½, 44½
Analysis: The Geno Smith era isn’t starting well for Seattle, which is coming off a 13-10 loss to the Saints. Despite suffering back-to-back losses, the Seahawks have covered three of their past four games and now take on Urban Meyer’s Jaguars, who have lost 20 of their past 21 games. Jacksonville is returning from its bye week after finally picking up a win in London over Miami.
By the numbers: The Jaguars have lost 20 consecutive games in the U.S. … Jacksonville is 8-30 ATS vs. the NFC but 8-2-1 ATS after a bye. … The Seahawks are 8-2 ATS before a bye and 6-3 ATS in their past nine games as home favorites.
Pick: Seahawks 21, Jaguars 17
Patriots (3-4) at Chargers (4-2)
Time: 1:05 p.m.
Line/total: Chargers -4½, 49½
Analysis: The Chargers return from their bye week looking to rebound from their blowout loss to Baltimore two weeks ago. Los Angeles will try to get back on track against coach Bill Belichick and his Patriots team that’s fresh off a 54-13 destruction of the Jets. New England has won and covered the past six meetings against the Chargers, including last season’s 45-0 blowout in Los Angeles.
By the numbers: The Chargers are 3-11-1 ATS as home favorites. … The Patriots are 1-5 ATS in their past six road games versus nondivisional opponents.
Pick: Chargers 33, Patriots 28
Football Team (2-5) at Broncos (3-4)
Time: 1:25 p.m.
Line/total: Broncos -3½, 44½
Analysis: Denver is looking to get back in the win column after losing four straight, the latest a 20-17 defeat in Cleveland against a backup quarterback and third-string running back. The Football Team has been disappointing, especially on defense, where it ranks 29th in the NFL, allowing 406 yards per game.
By the numbers: The Broncos are 3-10-1 ATS as home favorites. … Washington is on a 1-6 ATS slide and is 3-7 ATS in its past 10 games vs. the AFC.
Pick: Broncos 26, Football Team 17
Buccaneers (6-1) at Saints (4-2)
Time: 1:25 p.m., KVVU-5
Line/total: Buccaneers -4½, 49
Analysis: Tom Brady and the defending Super Bowl champions keep rolling, crushing Chicago 38-3 at home last week. Now Tampa Bay will look to add to its NFC South lead over rival New Orleans, which edged Seattle 13-10.
By the numbers: The Bucs are 3-9 ATS before a bye. … The Saints are riding a 10-3-1 ATS run and are 7-1-1 ATS in their past nine games as home underdogs.
Pick: Bucs 30, Saints 27
Cowboys (5-1) at Vikings (3-3)
Time: 5:20 p.m., KSNV-3
Line/total: Vikings -3, 51½
Analysis: The Cowboys return from their bye week to head north against Kirk Cousins and the Vikings. Minnesota’s veteran quarterback has struggled in prime-time games. Dallas QB Dak Prescott is questionable with a calf strain. Cooper Rush is his backup. With the Vikings also returning from their bye, we’ll see which team has prepared better for what promises to be a high-scoring game.
By the numbers: The Cowboys are 6-0 ATS this season and have covered four of their past five road games. … The Vikings are on a 3-10 ATS slide and are 3-8 ATS after a bye.
Pick: Cowboys 45, Vikings 38
Giants (2-5) at Chiefs (3-4)
Time: 5:15 p.m. Monday, ESPN
Line/total: Chiefs -9½, 52
Analysis: As we approach the midway point of the season, the biggest shocker certainly has been the decline of the Chiefs. After Kansas City’s 27-3 loss at Tennessee last week, it gets an extra day to prepare for a Giants team that whipped Carolina 25-3 without four key offensive players.
By the numbers: The Giants are 18-5 ATS as road underdogs. But New York is 1-8 ATS vs. the AFC. … The Chiefs are 2-5 ATS this season and on a 4-14 spread slide overall.
Pick: Chiefs 28, Giants 24
