NFL betting breakdown: Week 8

NFL BREAKDOWN

Alex B. Smith, axsmithsports.com, @axsmithsports

Raiders (2-4) at Saints (2-5)

Time: 10 a.m., KLAS-8

Line/total: Raiders -1½, 49

Analysis: The Raiders head to the Big Easy fresh off a nice 38-20 home victory over the Houston Texans. Derek Carr and Co. will get to move the ball against a Saints squad that ranks No. 31 in the NFL in scoring defense, allowing 28.6 points per game. But New Orleans has had extra time to prepare after losing a 42-34 shootout at Arizona on “Thursday Night Football” on Oct. 20.

By the numbers: The Raiders are on a 9-19-2 slide against the spread vs. NFC opponents. … The Saints are on a 2-6 spread skid against non-division foes. … The Raiders are on a 5-1 over run, and the Saints are on a 5-2 over run.

Pick: Raiders 36, Saints 30 (OT)

Broncos (2-5) vs. Jaguars (2-5), at Wembley Stadium, London

Time: 6:30 a.m.

Line/total: Jaguars -2½, 40½

Analysis: The Jaguars make their annual trek across the pond as part of the NFL International Series. They will have a slight crowd advantage against a Denver squad that is struggling offensively. Broncos QB Russell Wilson is going to try and play this week after missing last week’s loss to the Jets with a hamstring injury. But he and backup Brett Rypien have been bad. Jacksonville might have a tough time moving the ball against Denver, which ranks No. 2 in total defense (286.0 ypg) and No. 3 in scoring defense (16.4 ppg).

By the numbers: The Jaguars are 4-3 straight-up and 3-4 ATS in games played in London. … Jacksonville is on a 3-14 ATS slide, and Denver is on a 3-8 spread skid. … The Broncos are riding an 18-6 under streak, and the Jags are on a 17-8 under run.

Pick: Jaguars 23, Broncos 13

Bears (3-4) at Cowboys (5-2)

Time: 10 a.m., KVVU-5

Line/total: Cowboys -10, 42½

Analysis: The Bears stunned the New England Patriots on Monday night in a 33-14 rout that saw them rush for 243 yards, with 82 of those coming from QB Justin Fields. Things will be much tougher for Fields against the Cowboys’ top-five pass rush. Dallas got a big boost on offense last week with the return of starting QB Dak Prescott.

By the numbers: The Cowboys are on a 10-3 cover streak overall and a 7-3 ATS run as home favorites. … Despite last week’s win, the Bears are only 2-5 ATS as road underdogs. … Dallas is riding a 14-5 under uptick, but the last seven meetings with Chicago have gone over.

Pick: Cowboys 31, Bears 24

Panthers (2-5) at Falcons (3-4)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Falcons -4, 41½

Analysis: The Falcons have emerged as the point-spread darlings of the NFL this season, with a 6-1 ATS record, though they suffered their first spread loss in last week’s 35-17 blowout defeat at Cincinnati. Atlanta was outgained 537-214 by the Bengals. Now the Falcons are favorites for the first time this season against a Panthers squad that upset the Buccaneers 21-3 last week as 13-point underdogs.

By the numbers: Atlanta is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games as a home favorite. … Carolina is on a 2-12 ATS slide overall and is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games as a road underdog. … The underdog and road team have covered in each of the last four meetings.

Pick: Panthers 21, Falcons 17

Steelers (2-5) at Eagles (6-0)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Eagles -10½, 42½

Analysis: The last undefeated team in the NFL, the Eagles look to keep their winning ways going in this Keystone State showdown against a Steelers team that covered as seven-point underdogs in a 16-10 loss at Miami last Sunday night. Pittsburgh’s offense will have to keep the ball on the ground or risk testing the fifth-best pass defense in the league.

By the numbers: The Steelers are on a 22-9-1 ATS run as underdogs. … Pittsburgh has failed to cover seven of its last eight meetings against the NFC. … Philadelphia is 3-7 ATS following a bye and 4-8 ATS against AFC opponents. … The Eagles are on a 4-1 cover run overall.

Pick: Eagles 31, Steelers 19

Dolphins (4-3) at Lions (1-5)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Dolphins -3½, 51½

Analysis: It’s Tua time again for Miami as QB Tua Tagovailoa returned to throw for 261 yards and a touchdown in the Dolphins’ 16-10 win over the Steelers. Now Miami prepares for a Lions team that made a ton of errors in last week’s 24-6 loss to Dallas. This is one of the highest totals on the board at 51½ despite the Dolphins going under in five of their last seven games.

By the numbers: Miami is on an 8-2 under run on the road against NFC North opponents. … Detroit is on a 10-5 cover streak and has cashed in eight of its last 10 games as an underdog.

Pick: Dolphins 27, Lions 20

Cardinals (3-4) at Vikings (5-1)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Vikings -3½, 49

Analysis: The Vikings return home following their bye week to take on the roller-coaster Cardinals. Kyler Murray completed 20 of 29 passes last time out in Arizona’s 42-34 victory over New Orleans on “Thursday Night Football.” Minnesota has been a money burner recently both as home chalk and after a bye.

By the numbers: The Cardinals have covered eight straight as road underdogs. … The Vikings are 3-9 ATS following a bye and 4-13-1 ATS as home favorites. … Minnesota is on a 1-4 spread skid overall.

Pick: Cardinals 33, Vikings 26

Patriots (3-4) at Jets (5-2)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Patriots -3, 39½

Analysis: New England looked lost in the fog Monday night in their shocking 33-14 defeat to Chicago as an eight-point home favorite. The Jets continue to cook with cornerback Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner and their top-10 defense. This is a big divisional showdown for the Jets, who can improve to 2-0 in the AFC East with a victory.

By the numbers: New England is on an 11-5-1 ATS run. … The Jets are on a 5-1 spread streak overall and a 7-3 cover run as underdogs. … New York is on a 2-7 ATS skid against division opponents.

Pick: Patriots 23, Jets 20 (OT)

Titans (4-2) at Texans (1-4-1)

Time: 1:05 p.m.

Line/total: Pick’em, 39½

Analysis: The Titans are coming off last week’s sloppy 19-10 win over the Colts, while the Texans blew a 20-17 fourth-quarter lead and lost 38-20 to the Raiders. Tennessee will have to rely on its running game with QB Ryan Tannehill out.

By the numbers: Tennessee is 6-2 ATS in its last eight against division opponents, but it’s on a 2-6 spread slide as a road favorite. … Houston is 6-3-1 ATS in its last 10 as an underdog and 8-2 ATS against AFC South foes.

Pick: Texans 24, Titans 21

Giants (6-1) at Seahawks (4-3)

Time: 1:25 p.m.

Line/total: Seahawks -3, 44½

Analysis: The Giants are 6-1 straight-up and ATS this season, yet they’re underdogs for the fourth straight week. The books are not giving New York enough credit, especially against a Seahawks squad that ranks 29th in total defense (399.1 ypg) and 28th in scoring defense (26.6 ppg) — though Seattle leads the NFC West at 4-3.

By the numbers: The Giants are riding a 22-10 cover streak as road underdogs. … The Seahawks are 6-3 ATS in their last nine home games.

Pick: Giants 27, Seahawks 20

Commanders (3-4) at Colts (3-3-1)

Time: 1:25 p.m.

Line/total: Colts -3, 39½

Analysis: The Sam Ehlinger era begins for Indianapolis as Colts coach Frank Reich said he’ll replace Matt Ryan, out with a shoulder separation, as starting QB for the rest of the season. Washington backup QB Taylor Heinicke had a strong game in last week’s 23-21 win over the Packers. This is one of the lowest totals of the week. The Colts have won and covered the last three meetings against the Commanders.

By the numbers: Indianapolis is on a 13-4-1 spread streak against NFC opponents and a 6-2 ATS run against non-division opponents. … Washington is 2-7 ATS as a road underdog.

Pick: Colts 34, Commanders 13

49ers (3-4) at Rams (3-3)

Time: 1:25 p.m., KVVU-5

Line/total: Pick’em, 41½

Analysis: The Rams come off of their bye week to renew an NFC West rivalry that has been dominated by the 49ers in recent years. San Francisco shut down Los Angeles in a 24-9 win on “Monday Night Football” earlier this season, holding the Rams to 215 total yards.

By the numbers: The Rams are 10-4-1 ATS after a bye, but they’re on a 2-6 spread skid overall. … The Niners have won seven straight meetings with Los Angeles.

Pick: Niners 25, Rams 22

Packers (3-4) at Bills (5-1)

Time: 5:20 p.m., KSNV-3

Line/total: Bills -10½, 47½

Analysis: The “Bills Mafia,” a group of die-hard Buffalo fans founded in 2011, will be primed and ready for “Sunday Night Football” as Aaron Rodgers and the slumping Packers come to Orchard Park, New York. Buffalo is coming off a bye and has been rolling this season, while Green Bay lost its third straight game at Washington to cause widespread panic among the “cheeseheads.”

By the numbers: The Bills are 5-1-1 ATS off of a bye, 11-3 ATS against NFC opponents and 10-3 ATS against non-division foes. … The Packers have covered nine of their last 12 games as road underdogs.

Pick: Bills 30, Packers 17

Bengals (4-3) at Browns (2-5)

Time: 5:15 p.m. Monday, ESPN

Line/total: Bengals -3½, 45

Analysis: It’s all orange and all Ohio on Halloween in this AFC North clash. Cincinnati lit up the Falcons in last week’s 35-17 rout that saw Joe Burrow and Co. compile 537 yards of offense. Cleveland has struggled despite having the fourth-best rushing attack in the league, averaging 163.6 yards per game.

By the numbers: The Browns are 1-7 ATS before a bye and 3-12-1 ATS against division opponents. … Cincinnati has lost seven of the last eight meetings with Cleveland. … The Bengals are 5-2 ATS this season.

Pick: Bengals 31, Browns 20