NFL betting breakdown: Week 9

NFL BREAKDOWN

Alan “Dr. Alan” Dumond, Wizardraceandsports.com, @WizardPicks

Raiders (2-5) at Jaguars (2-6)

Time: 10 a.m., KLAS-8

Line/total: Raiders -2, 48

Analysis: The Raiders come into this game off an embarrassing 24-0 blowout loss to the Saints. No NFL team ever wants to get shut out, so you can be sure that the Raiders will be very motivated Sunday to make amends for their poor play. The Jaguars arrive back home from London after dropping their fifth straight game to the Broncos in a 21-17 loss. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville’s second-year franchise quarterback, threw two interceptions in last week’s loss, and he has not shown the progress that many thought he would at this point in his career. He is 5-19 as an NFL starting QB.

By the numbers: Raiders RB Josh Jacobs is fifth in the NFL in rushing with 676 yards and six touchdowns. … Jaguars RB Travis Etienne is eighth in the league in rushing with 571 yards. … The Jaguars are on a 4-0 under streak at home.

Pick: Raiders 24, Jaguars 17

Colts (3-4-1) at Patriots (4-4)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Patriots -5½, 40½

Analysis: The Patriots come into this game off a 22-17 bounce-back road win over the Jets after their disappointing 33-14 home loss to the Bears on “Monday Night Football.” On the flip side, the Colts blew a late fourth-quarter lead in last week’s 17-16 loss to the Commanders in second-year Colts QB Sam Ehlinger’s first NFL career start. Patriots coach Bill Belichick has a stellar history against young QBs like Ehlinger, who will be making his first NFL career road start at New England.

By the numbers: The Patriots had won eight straight meetings with the Colts before last year’s 27-17 loss in Indianapolis. … The Patriots have 16 takeaways, which was tied with the Eagles for No. 1 in the NFL heading into this week. … The Colts are the league’s top under team at 7-1.

Pick: Patriots 20, Colts 13

Bills (6-1) at Jets (5-3)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Bills -11½, 45½

Analysis: The Bills are playing at an elite level on both sides of the ball, as expected, while the Jets are one of the NFL’s surprise teams. New York’s turnaround has been led by its defense, which has allowed only 4.7 yards per play (No. 3 in the NFL). The Jets also rank ninth in rushing defense and fifth in defensive passer rating. New York’s defense should be able to slow down the high-powered Bills offense enough to keep the Jets competitive in this game.

By the numbers: The Bills have won the last four meetings and seven of 10. … Buffalo WR Stefon Diggs is third in the NFL in receiving yards with 764, an average of 109 yards per game. … The Bills have a 6-1 under mark.

Pick: Bills 24, Jets 14

Dolphins (5-3) at Bears (3-5)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Dolphins -4, 45½

Analysis: A pair of rookie coaches square off in Miami’s Mike McDaniel and Chicago’s Matt Eberflus. Both teams are coming off of high-scoring performances last week, and this game sets up as another high-scoring affair. The Dolphins’ offense can be explosive with QB Tua Tagovailoa and WRs Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, and they should find success against a Bears defense that just traded away two of its best players in DE Robert Quinn and LB Roquan Smith.

By the numbers: The Bears rank No. 27 in the NFL in total offense, though they’ve scored 62 points in their last two games. … The Dolphins rank No. 7 in total offense, averaging 380.6 yards per game. … Chicago is on an 8-2 under run at home.

Pick: Dolphins 28, Bears 24

Vikings (6-1) at Commanders (4-4)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Vikings -3, 43½

Analysis: The Vikings lead the NFC North with a surprising 6-1 record, though only one of those wins came against a team with a winning record. Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins will be playing his first game in Washington since leaving the team in 2018 to sign with the Vikings. The Commanders are on a three-game winning streak, the last two with Taylor Heinicke at QB in place of the injured Carson Wentz. Washington has played five straight games in which the margin of victory was five points or fewer. Another tight game is expected here.

By the numbers: The Commanders are No. 13 in the NFL in total defense, allowing 334.4 yards per game. … The Vikings are No. 28 in total defense, allowing 383.1 ypg. … Minnesota RB Dalvin Cook is the league’s 10th-leading rusher with 561 yards and five TDs. … The Commanders have a 5-2 under mark.

Pick: Vikings 23, Commanders 20

Packers (3-5) at Lions (1-6)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Packers -3½, 49½

Analysis: Both teams are on extended losing streaks, with the Packers dropping four straight, including three games in which they were the favorites. This is the longest losing streak of Green Bay coach Matt LaFleur’s tenure. On the flip side, the Lions are on a five-game losing streak after blowing a 27-17 halftime lead in last week’s 31-27 loss to the Dolphins. Both defenses have given up at least 23 points in each of their last five games and we can expect to see more of the same Sunday in what should be a high-scoring affair.

By the numbers: The Lions rank last in the NFL in scoring defense, allowing an average of 32.1 ppg. … The over is 9-3-1 in the last 13 meetings. … Detroit has a 4-0 over record at home.

Pick: Lions 28, Packers 27

Chargers (4-3) at Falcons (4-4)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Chargers -3, 49

Analysis: The Falcons have been one of the NFL’s surprise teams this season and are coming off a dramatic overtime win last week over the Panthers. Atlanta is in a horrible scheduling spot as this is a “sandwich game,” with a quick rematch with Carolina on Thursday. The Falcons might be a little flat in this one after last week’s physically and emotionally draining win. The Chargers are coming off their bye week and will be looking to make amends for their poor play in a 37-23 Week 7 loss to the Seahawks.

By the numbers: The Falcons rank No. 29 in scoring defense, allowing 25.6 ppg. … The Chargers have given up more than 200 rushing yards in two out of their last three games. … Los Angeles QB Justin Herbert has thrown for 2,009 yards, 12 TDs and only four interceptions this season.

Pick: Chargers 31, Falcons 20

Panthers (2-6) at Bengals (4-4)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Bengals -7, 42½

Analysis: Both squads are coming off disappointing losses. The Panthers blew a late fourth-quarter lead, then missed two kicks that could have won the game in last week’s heartbreaking 37-34 OT loss to the Falcons. Carolina is in a horrible scheduling spot, as this is the second of back-to-back road games and it’s a “sandwich game” with a quick rematch against Atlanta on Thursday. The Panthers could be a little flat in this one. The Bengals suffered a humiliating 32-13 blowout loss to the Browns on Monday. Cincinnati will be very motivated to atone for its poor play against Cleveland at home against Carolina before its bye week.

By the numbers: Before Monday’s 19-point loss to the Browns, the Bengals’ other three losses this season were all by three points or fewer. … Bengals QB Joe Burrow leads the NFL in passing yards with 2,329. … The favorite is on a 4-1-1 ATS run in this series.

Pick: Bengals 27, Panthers 13

Seahawks (5-3) at Cardinals (3-5)

Time: 1:05 p.m., KVVU-5

Line/total: Cardinals -2, 48½

Analysis: The Seahawks are one of the NFL’s biggest surprises this season, and they’re on a three-game winning streak after beating the Giants 27-13 last week. Seattle QB Geno Smith is playing the best football of his NFL career. He’s ninth in the league in passing yards (1,924) and has thrown for 13 TDs and only three interceptions. The Cardinals lost 34-26 to the Vikings last week, but their offense has shown new life with WR DeAndre Hopkins back from his six-game suspension. Arizona will be playing this game with same-season division revenge motivation after its 19-9 loss to the Seahawks in Week 6.

By the numbers: The Seahawks are on a 6-2-1 cover streak at Arizona. … Cardinals QB Kyler Murray is eighth in the NFL in passing yards with 1,993.

Pick: Seahawks 27, Cardinals 24

Rams (3-4) at Buccaneers (3-5)

Time: 1:25 p.m., KLAS-8

Line/total: Bucs -3, 42½

Analysis: Both teams have severely underperformed this season, and both are offensively challenged. Tampa Bay averages 18.3 ppg and has scored 20 points or more in only four of its eight games. Los Angeles averages 16.8 ppg and has scored 20 points or more in only three of its seven games. Both teams have had trouble running the ball, and both QBs have had their struggles. Bucs QB Tom Brady has thrown for nine TDs and only one interception, while Rams QB Matthew Stafford has thrown for seven TDs and eight interceptions. The Bucs will be playing this game with revenge motivation from last season’s home playoff loss to Los Angeles. The Rams have the coaching advantage with Sean McVay over Todd Bowles, and that might prove to be the difference.

By the numbers: The Bucs are averaging 5.2 yards per play. … The Rams are averaging 4.8 ypp, which ranks 31st in the NFL. … These teams have a combined 11-4 under record.

Pick: Rams 20, Bucs 17

Titans (5-2) at Chiefs (5-2)

Time: 5:20 p.m., KSNV-3

Line/total: Chiefs -12½, 46

Analysis: The Chiefs have the scheduling advantage, as they’re coming off their bye week, while the Titans are playing the second of back-to-back road games. Titans starting QB Ryan Tannehill is questionable to play after missing last week’s win over the Texans with an ankle injury. If he doesn’t play, Tennessee will give rookie QB Malik Willis his second NFL career start. The Chiefs will be playing this game with revenge motivation from last season’s 27-3 regular-season loss to the Titans.

By the numbers: The Chiefs have the NFL’s top-ranked scoring offense, averaging 31.9 ppg. … The Titans are averaging only 18.8 ppg. … Tennessee RB Derrick Henry is is the NFL’s third-leading rusher with 755 yards and seven TDs.

Pick: Chiefs 31, Titans 14

Ravens (5-3) at Saints (3-5)

Time: 5:15 p.m. Monday, ESPN

Line: Ravens -1½, 47

Analysis: The AFC North-leading Ravens enter on their first two-game winning streak of the season. The Saints have a losing record but are only one game out of first place in the NFC South. They’re also coming off their best game of the year in a 24-0 shutout win over the Raiders. Baltimore has the scheduling advantage, having last played on “Thursday Night Football,” which gave it extra time to rest and prepare for this game. The Ravens have the coaching advantage with John Harbaugh over Dennis Allen, and they also have the QB advantage with Lamar Jackson over Andy Dalton. Those edges should prove to be the difference in this one.

By the numbers: The Saints give up 25.0 ppg. … Jackson is the NFL’s 12th leading rusher with 553 yards. … New Orleans is on an 0-4 spread slide on “Monday Night Football.”

Pick: Ravens 27, Saints 20