NFL countdown: Offense key to Bears’ chances of reaching win total

This is the 13th in a series of 32 NFL team betting previews in 32 days leading up to the league’s Sept. 10 season opener. We’ll count down the teams from the lowest season win total to the highest.

Two years ago, the Chicago Bears were an up-and-coming team that cruised to the NFC North title with a 12-4 record.

With that came a home wild-card playoff game, which they lost to the Philadelphia Eagles 16-15 on the “double doink,” a missed last-second field goal that hit the upright and crossbar.

They slid back to 8-8 last season, and the regression was nearly all on offense. While the defense allowed only 15 more points last season than in 2018, the offense went from ninth in the NFL with 421 points to 29th with 280.

Matt Nagy is 20-12 in two years as the Bears’ coach, but he is an offensive-minded coach who hasn’t kick-started the Bears’ offense.

“The biggest problem with the Bears is their play-calling and coach,” Westgate vice president of risk management Ed Salmons said. “Matt Nagy was brought in as an offensive coach, and the team has only succeeded because of the defense.”

Salmons pointed out it’s Nagy’s job to develop quarterback Mitchell Trubisky, who was selected No. 2 overall in the 2017 draft ahead of Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson.

The Bears declined to pick up Trubisky’s fifth-year option, so this could be his last season with the team. And they brought in former Super Bowl MVP Nick Foles to compete for the starting job, although it’s still likely Trubisky’s job to lose.

“You have to give (Trubisky) every opportunity because of what they have invested in him,” Sunset Station sportsbook director Chuck Esposito said. “I don’t think (last year’s backup) Chase Daniel was going to push him. Nick Foles is somebody who can push him, and bringing him in was the right decision to make.”

The Bears have some nice pieces on offense in all-purpose threat Tarik Cohen, running back David Montgomery and wide receiver Allen Robinson. They also drafted tight end Cole Kmet in the second round and hope he gives them a threat in the middle of the field.

But, as usual with the Bears, if they want to be better than their eight-win total at the Westgate, it’s largely going to be on the defense to make it happen.

While Chicago has fielded a top-five defense in each of the past two seasons, its takeaways went from 36 in 2018 to 19 last season.

“I thought last year when the public was just in love with the Bears, they remind me of this year’s Green Bay team that was due for a huge regression,” Salmons said. “Eight is probably the right number. They’re a .500 football team. What they did with turnovers two years ago was astronomical, and it’s not repeatable.”

With standouts such as pass-rusher Khalil Mack, linebackers Danny Trevathan and former No. 8 overall pick Roquan Smith and one of the top safeties in the league in Eddie Jackson, the Bears have every reason to believe they can field a top-five defense again.

“The Bears are really close to the Packers and Vikings,” Esposito said. “They weren’t as opportunistic on defense last year, and if they can return to form, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them win the division. I’ve seen eight as their number as well, and they’re a team I’ve seen on the over.”

Contact Jason Orts at jorts@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2936. Follow @SportsWithOrts on Twitter.