NFL forecast: Cowboys live underdogs against Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce said they got their swagger back after the Chiefs routed the Raiders 41-14 on Sunday night.

Now Kansas City is favored by only 2½ points over the Dallas Cowboys in Sunday’s possible Super Bowl preview at Arrowhead Stadium.

The betting public will gladly back the Chiefs laying less than a field goal at home. But road underdogs have cashed at a 63 percent clip this season, going 56-33 ATS, and short road ‘dogs (+3 or less) have been even better, going 16-7 ATS (69.5 percent).

The Cowboys also regained their swagger with a 43-3 beatdown of Atlanta a week after suffering a 30-16 upset loss to Denver. Dallas (7-2, 8-1 ATS) is 3-0 ATS as an underdog this season and the only game it hasn’t covered was against the Broncos.

Kansas City (6-4, 3-7) is 0-5 ATS at home this season and won’t have the highest-scoring offense on the field in this one.

That distinction belongs to the Cowboys, who lead the NFL in scoring with 31.6 points per game. The Chiefs are 10th (26.2 ppg).

Dallas also has the No. 10 scoring defense, which allows 21.7 ppg, while Kansas City ranks No. 20 and gives up 24.1 ppg.

With the highest total on the board at 56½, this promises to be a shootout. I’ll back the better team on both sides of the ball and take the points.

Here are four more plays (home team in CAPS):

■ 49ers (-6½) over JAGUARS: San Francisco finally lived up to its high preseason expectations and earned a virtual must win in Monday’s 31-10 rout of the Rams. Jimmy Garoppolo, who had his highest passer rating of the season (141.7), and the Niners will try to build on the momentum against Jacksonville, which is on a 1-14 spread slide vs. the NFC West. San Francisco has covered four straight against the Jaguars.

■ Colts (+7) over BILLS: After an 0-3 start, the Colts (5-5, 6-4 ATS) have won five of seven to reach the .500 mark. Indianapolis is riding a 9-1 ATS streak on the road and covered as 7-point underdogs at Buffalo in a 27-24 loss in last season’s playoffs. The Bills have split their last four games while going 1-2-1 ATS in wins over the Jets and Dolphins and losses to the Jaguars and Titans.

■ RAIDERS (+1) over Bengals: I’ll take the home underdog in a virtual must win in a matchup of 5-4 teams. Each team started 5-2 before losing its last two games. Cincinnati is coming off a bye that followed a 41-16 loss to Cleveland. The Raiders are coming off Sunday night’s 41-14 home loss to Kansas City. Bengals QB Joe Burrow is tied for the league lead in interceptions (11) with Carolina’s Sam Darnold.

■ Giants (+11) over BUCCANEERS: Tom Brady has had his struggles against the Giants and so has Tampa Bay, which is 1-7-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings against New York. The Bucs are coming off a 29-19 loss at Washington and have lost two straight games. The Giants are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games at Tampa and have thrived as road underdogs, going 12-2 ATS. New York covered as 13-point ‘dogs in a 25-23 loss to the Bucs last season and prime-time underdogs are 21-10 ATS this season.

Last week: 1-4

Season: 26-24

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.