NFL forecast: Stage set for Raiders-Chargers shootout on ‘MNF’
The Silver and Black have been the gold standard for NFL over bettors since the start of last season.
The Raiders finished the 2020 regular season with the league’s best over-under record at 12-3-1 and are 2-1 this season for a 14-4-1 over run (78 percent).
It’s been said that a game is never under until it’s over. That was certainly the case in Las Vegas’ 31-28 overtime win Sunday over the Dolphins, who pushed the number over the total (44½) on Jacoby Brissett’s touchdown run with two seconds left in regulation.
The Raiders defense has improved, but Miami — which mustered a total of 17 points in its first two games against the Patriots and Bills — still managed to put up 28 behind its backup quarterback.
Now the high-flying Raiders, averaging 30 points in their 3-0 start, will take on a Chargers team on “Monday Night Football” coming off a 30-24 win over the Chiefs.
The AFC West rivals combined for 57 points in each of their two meetings last season, and the stage is set for another shootout at SoFi Stadium.
Raiders quarterback Derek Carr leads the league in passing yards with 1,203, and Los Angeles QB Justin Herbert is fifth with 956. The over is 8-2 in NFL prime-time games, and these teams have enough firepower to push this one over the total of 51½.
Here are four more plays (home team in CAPS):
Lions (+3) over BEARS: Detroit is coming off one of the most painful losses imaginable to Baltimore, which converted a fourth-and-19 to set up Justin Tucker’s NFL-record, game-winning 66-yard field goal that bounced off the crossbar and over it as time expired. But the Lions (0-3) have been competitive, and underdogs of 6 or less are 14-3 ATS this season. Chicago had 47 total yards in a 26-6 loss to Cleveland and is averaging 13.3 points per game.
Titans (-6) over JETS: Tennessee wideouts Julio Jones and A.J. Brown are out for this game, which is mostly why the line has dropped from 8 to 6. But the Titans still have Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry, and the Jets are still the Jets, arguably the NFL’s worst team. New York (0-3) is last in the league in scoring (6.7 ppg) and has been outscored 51-6 by the Broncos and Patriots in the past two games.
Chiefs (-6½) over EAGLES: It’s almost unfathomable that two-time defending AFC champion Kansas City has covered only two of its past 14 games. We can’t see the Chiefs losing their third consecutive game to a Philadelphia team on a short week after a 41-21 loss at Dallas on Monday. Former Eagles coach Andy Reid makes his first trip back to Philadelphia since 2013.
49ERS (-3) over Seahawks: Seattle is 1-7 ATS in its last eight road games and has allowed 63 points in back-to-back losses to the Titans and Vikings. San Francisco should bounce back from its last-second loss to Green Bay against the Seahawks’ porous defense, which allows a league-worst 440.3 yards per game.
Last week: 3-2
Season: 9-6
Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.
