NFL forecast: Take improved Patriots over Dolphins

The Patriots dealt Las Vegas sportsbooks their biggest loss of NFL Week 1 when they defeated the Dolphins 21-11 last season and covered as 7-point home favorites to start the post-Tom Brady era.

New England quarterback Cam Newton ran for two touchdowns to outduel Miami QB Ryan Fitzpatrick.

A lot has changed since then, as Newton is out of football and Fitzpatrick will start Sunday for the Washington Football Team.

The veterans have been replaced by Mac Jones — the Patriots’ first-round draft pick — and Tua Tagovailoa, the Dolphins’ second-year starter.

The former Alabama teammates will square off Sunday in Foxborough, Massachusetts, where New England is a 3-point favorite.

New England, coming off its first losing season since 2000, is vastly improved after coach Bill Belichick restocked the roster with 15 free agents at an unprecedented $163 million in guaranteed money and handed the reins of the offense to Jones.

The defense will be bolstered by the return of linebackers Donta Hightower, who opted out last season; Kyle Van Noy, who was released by Miami; and Matthew Judon, a free agent from Baltimore.

Quarterbacks are 6-0 in their first career starts under Belichick, and the Patriots have dominated the Dolphins in New England, covering eight of the past nine meetings while winning 11 of the last 12 and 17 of 20.

Here are four more plays (home team in CAPS):

WASHINGTON (-1) over Chargers: Sharp action on the Football Team has made it a slight favorite after Los Angeles opened as a 2-point favorite. Washington has one of the NFL’s toughest defenses behind Defensive Rookie of the Year Chase Young, and the game matches a West Coast team playing in a body-clock game on the East Coast.

Broncos (-3) over GIANTS: Another sharp play on a Denver team on the rise with Von Miller back to lead the defense and veteran quarterback Teddy Bridgewater directing an offense loaded with young talent. New York is banged up on offense, with tight end Evan Engram ruled out and running back Saquon Barkley questionable.

Saints (+3½) over Packers

Drew Brees is in the broadcast booth, but the Saints might be more explosive behind QB Jameis Winston, who led the league in passing yards in 2019 for Tampa Bay. The game was moved from New Orleans to Jacksonville, Florida, because of Hurricane Ida. Aaron Rodgers is 3-4 in the Sunshine State with a QB rating of 78.1. The Saints have covered five of their past six games as underdogs.

RAIDERS (+4) over Ravens

Allegiant Stadium will be electric for the Raiders’ first regular-season home game with fans on “Monday Night Football.” The Raiders are 5-1-1 ATS in their past seven Monday games, including an outright upset of the Saints in last year’s home opener. The offense will score enough points to cover as a prime-time home underdog against injury-riddled Baltimore.

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.