NFL PLAYOFFS BAD BEATS BLOG: Chiefs, Bucs cover; Super Bowl set

Super Bowl berths are on the line in today’s NFL conference championship games.

First, quarterback Tom Brady will try to earn his 10th trip to the Super Bowl when his Buccaneers take on the Packers in Green Bay. Then, the defending champion Chiefs will try to get back to the big game when they host the Bills.

We’ll be following all the action. Refresh this blog throughout the day to track bad beats, player props, movement on the live betting line, halftime bets and much more.

UPDATES

7:30 p.m.: That’s it for today. Favorites went 1-1 against the spread, with the Buccaneers scoring the +160 outright upset in a 31-26 win over the Packers. The Chiefs covered as 3-point favorites in a 38-24 victory over the Bills. Both games went over the total.

Here are the betting results for both games:

— NFC title game: Buccaneers 31, Packers 26 (at Green Bay)

Full-game winners: Buccaneers +3 (+100), over 53½, Buccaneers +160 ML

First-half winners: Buccaneers +3 (-115), over 26½ (-120) (Buccaneers 21-10)

Second-half winners: Buccaneers +6½, under 27½ (Packers 16-10)

— AFC title game: Chiefs 38, Bills 24 (at Kansas City)

Full-game winners: Chiefs -3 (+100), over 55½, Chiefs -160 ML

First-half winners: Chiefs -1½, over 27½ (Chiefs 21-12)

Second-half winners: Chiefs -½ (+105), over 28 (Chiefs 17-12)

At the Westgate, the Chiefs are -3 (-120) favorites over the Buccaneers in the Super Bowl on Feb. 7 in Tampa, Florida. The total is 57. The spread and total both moved down a half-point from the openers of -3½, 57½.

Thanks for reading. We’ll be back for Super Bowl Sunday.

7:25 p.m.: The field goal by the Bills with 3:19 to play pushed the second-half total over 28.

7:20 p.m.: Prop grades for Bills-Chiefs:

General props: First score won’t be a TD (+165); largest lead over 14½ points; longest TD under 44½ yards (6); game won’t go to overtime (-2,000); won’t be a defensive or special teams TD (-300); won’t be a successful 2-point conversion (-330); both teams will make 33-yard or longer field goals (+120); won’t be a lead change in the fourth quarter (-220); a team will score three straight times (-200); will be a score in the final two minutes of the first half (-400); game won’t be tied again after 0-0 (-120).

Chiefs props: Patrick Mahomes over 27½ completions (29), over 37½ attempts (38), over 313½ passing yards (325), longest completion over 39½ yards (71), over 2½ TD passes (3, +100), won’t throw an interception (-170); Travis Kelce over 7½ receptions (13, -130), over 94½ receiving yards (118), longest reception under 25½ yards (17), will score a TD (-130); Tyreek Hill over 5½ receptions (9, -150), over 79½ receiving yards (172), longest reception over 26½ yards (71), won’t score a TD (+110); Mecole Hardman under 2½ receptions (2, +100), under 32½ receiving yards (4), longest reception under 16½ yards (3).

Bills props: Josh Allen over 26½ completions (28), over 39½ attempts (48), under 306½ passing yards (287), longest completion under 39½ yards (34), under 2½ TD passes (2, -180), will throw an interception (-120), over 36½ rushing yards (88), won’t score a TD (-170); Devin Singletary under 9½ rushing attempts (6, +110), under 42½ rushing yards (17), under 20½ receiving yards (9); Stefon Diggs under 7½ receptions (6, +115), under 99½ receiving yards (77), longest reception over 25½ yards (34), won’t score a TD (-120); Cole Beasley over 4½ receptions (7, +115), over 49½ receiving yards (88); John Brown under 4½ receptions (2, -140), under 54½ receiving yards (24), longest reception under 21½ yards (17); Dawson Knox over 2½ receptions (6, +120), over 23½ receiving yards (42), longest reception under 13½ yards (12).

7:05 p.m.: FINAL: Chiefs 38, Bills 24. The Chiefs cover as 3-point home favorites, -160 ML. The game goes over 55½.

7:01 p.m.: Two-minute warning. The Chiefs are set to finish out the game with first down at the Buffalo 13.

6:53 p.m.: After a series of penalties too complicated to summarize, Bass kicks a 51-yard field goal for the Bills to cut the Chiefs’ lead to 38-24 with 3:14 left in the fourth quarter.

6:44 p.m.: The Bills recover the onside kick with 4:06 to play.

6:41 p.m.: McKenzie was +550 to score a TD.

6:40 p.m.: A “meaningless” Bills TD means a lot for total bettors. Over 55½ hits when Isaiah McKenzie catches a 6-yard TD pass. The Bills cut the Chiefs’ lead to 38-21 with 4:08 left (2-point try failed).

6:32 p.m.: Mahomes has cashed most of his props: over 27½ completions (29), over 37½ attempts (38), over 313½ passing yards (325), longest completion over 39½ yards (71), over 2½ TD passes (3).

6:31 p.m.: This is all but over. Kelce catches a 5-yard TD pass, and the Chiefs extend their lead to 38-15 over the Bills with 7:36 left in the fourth quarter. The live line has been turned off.

6:27 p.m.: The Westgate has installed the Chiefs as 3½-point favorites over the Buccaneers in the Super Bowl. The total is 57.

6:19 p.m.: Allen was -120 to throw an interception. He has also gone way over his rushing yards prop of 36½ with 69 so far.

6:18 p.m.: That might do it. Josh Allen throws an interception, and the Chiefs have the ball at their 42, leading the Bills 31-15 with 13:11 left in the fourth quarter. The Chiefs are -8,000 on the live line (Bills +1,800).

6:11 p.m.: END OF THE THIRD QUARTER: Chiefs 31, Bills 15. The Bills have fourth-and-1 at the Kansas City 42 to start the fourth quarter. The Chiefs are -3,000 on the live line (Bills +1,120), spread -13½, total 60½.

6:04 p.m.: Kelce was -130 to score a TD.

6:03 p.m.: The Chiefs are in control. Travis Kelce catches a 1-yard TD pass, and the Chiefs extend their lead to 31-15 over the Bills with 3:29 left in the third quarter. The Chiefs are -4,000 on the live line (Bills +1,260), spread -12½, total 62½.

5:56 p.m.: The Bills add a field goal to cut the Chiefs’ lead to 24-15 with 5:49 left in the third quarter. The Chiefs are -750 on the live line (Bills +490), spread -8½, total 57½.

5:48 p.m.: The Chiefs’ big weapons have already cashed some of their props. Travis Kelce has gone over 7½ receptions (10 so far) and over 94½ receiving yards (100). Tyreek Hill has gone over 5½ receptions (7), 79½ yards (89) and longest reception 26½ yards (33).

5:45 p.m.: Both teams will kick a 33-yard or longer field goal cashes at +120.

5:44 p.m.: Harrison Butker boots a 45-yard field goal, and the Chiefs extend their lead to 24-12 over the Bills with 10:48 left in the third quarter. The Chiefs are -800 on the live line (Bills +520), spread -8½, total 59½.

5:30 p.m.: The second half is underway.

5:23 p.m.: Up 21-12 at halftime, the Chiefs are -570 on the live line (Bills +400), spread -9, total 61.

5:18 p.m.: Second-half line: Chiefs -½ (+105), total 28.

5:16 p.m.: HALFTIME: Chiefs 21, Bills 12. First-half winners: Chiefs -1½, total 27½.

5:13 p.m.: The Bills kick a field goal to cut the Chiefs’ lead to 21-12 with 11 seconds left in the first half.

5:02 p.m.: Two-minute warning. The Bills are driving at the Kansas City 19, trailing the Chiefs 21-9.

4:52 p.m.: The Chiefs are rolling. Clyde Edwards-Helaire scores on a 1-yard TD run, and the chiefs extend their lead to 21-9 over the Bills with 4:12 left in the second quarter. The Chiefs are -700 on the live line (Bills +470), spread -11½, total 62½.

4:42 p.m.: The Bills punt, and the Chiefs have the ball back at their 23, leading the Bills 14-9 with 8:31 left in the second quarter. The Chiefs are -370 on the live line (Bills +280), spread -6½, total 59½.

4:36 p.m.: Williams was +195 to score a TD, and Hardman was +230.

4:35 p.m.: The Chiefs take the lead. Darrel Williams scores on a 6-yard TD run, and the Chiefs lead the Bills 14-9 with 9:35 left in the second quarter. The Chiefs are -260 on the live line (Bills +205), spread -4½, total 60½.

4:29 p.m.: The Chiefs force a punt and have the ball back at their 18 with 12:26 left in the second quarter, trailing the Bills 9-7. The Chiefs are -170 on the live line (Bills +138), spread -2½, total 55½.

4:19 p.m.: The Chiefs answer. Mecole Hardman catches a 3-yard TD pass, and the Chiefs cut the Bills’ lead to 9-7 with 14:16 left in the second quarter. The Chiefs are -148 on the live line (Bills +120), spread -2½, total 57½.

4:15 p.m.: END OF THE FIRST QUARTER: Bills 9, Chiefs 0. First-quarter winners: Bills +½ (-130), under 10 (+115), Bills +130 ML. The Chiefs are poised to score at the Buffalo 6.

4:03 p.m.: Knox was 18-1 to score the first TD and 3-1 to score at any point.

4:02 p.m.: The Chiefs commit the first big mistake, and the Bills take advantage. Mecole Hardman muffs a punt, and the Bills score on the first play on a 3-yard TD pass to Dawson Knox. The Bills lead 9-0 with 6:14 left in the first quarter (extra point missed). The Bills are -144 on the live line (Chiefs +118), spread -2½, total 57½.

3:54 p.m.: The Chiefs punt after a Tyreek Hill drop on third down. The Bills have the ball at their 15 leading 3-0 with 9:58 left in the first quarter. The Chiefs are -122 on the live line (Bills +100), spread -½, total 53½.

3:48 p.m.: First score won’t be a TD cashes at +165.

3:47 p.m.: The Bills score first. Tyler Bass hits a 51-yard field goal, and the Bills take a 3-0 lead on the Chiefs with 11:32 left in the first quarter. The Chiefs are -148 on the live line (Bills +120), spread -2½, total 54½.

3:40 p.m.: Here are the props we’re tracking for Bills-Chiefs:

General props: First score will be a TD (yes -185); largest lead over 14½ points; longest TD over 44½ yards; game will go to overtime (no -2,000); will be a defensive or special teams TD (no -300); will be a successful 2-point conversion (no -330); both teams will make 33-yard or longer field goals (no -140); will be a lead change in the fourth quarter (no -220); a team will score three straight times (yes -200); will be a score in the final two minutes of the first half (yes -400); game will be tied again after 0-0 (no -120).

Bills props: Josh Allen 26½ completions, 39½ attempts, 306½ passing yards, longest completion 39½ yards, 2½ TD passes (under -180), will throw an interception (yes -120), 36½ rushing yards, will score a TD (no -170); Devin Singletary 9½ rushing attempts (over -130), 42½ rushing yards, 20½ receiving yards; Stefon Diggs 7½ receptions (over -135), 99½ receiving yards, longest reception 25½ yards, will score a TD (no -120); Cole Beasley 4½ receptions (under -135), 49½ receiving yards; John Brown 4½ receptions (under -140), 54½ receiving yards, longest reception 21½ yards; Dawson Knox 2½ receptions (under -140), 23½ receiving yards, longest reception 13½ yards.

Chiefs props: Patrick Mahomes 27½ completions, 37½ attempts, 313½ passing yards, longest completion 39½ yards, 2½ TD passes (under -120), will throw an interception (no -170); Travis Kelce 7½ receptions (over -130), 94½ receiving yards, longest reception 25½ yards, will score a TD (yes -130); Tyreek Hill 5½ receptions (over -150), 79½ receiving yards, longest reception 26½ yards, will score a TD (yes -130); Mecole Hardman 2½ receptions (over -120), 32½ receiving yards, longest reception 16½ yards.

3:38 p.m.: The AFC title game is about to kick off:

Bills (+140) at Chiefs (-3 +100, 55½, -160), 3:40 p.m.

3:30 p.m.: Prop grades for Buccaneers-Packers:

General props: First score will be a TD (-180); largest lead over 14½ points (18); longest TD over 42½ yards (50); game won’t go to overtime (-2,000); won’t be a defensive or special teams TD (-310); won’t be a successful 2-point conversion (-330); both teams won’t make 33-yard or longer field goals (-120); won’t be a lead change in the fourth quarter (-250); a team won’t score three straight times (+175); will be a score in the final two minutes of the first half (-350); game will be tied again after 0-0 (-110, at 7-7).

Buccaneers props: Tom Brady under 25½ completions (20), under 38½ attempts (36), under 290½ passing yards (280), longest completion over 37½ yards (52), over 2 TD passes (3, +110), will throw an interception (-110); Leonard Fournette over 47½ rushing yards (55); Mike Evans under 4½ receptions (3, +100), under 62½ receiving yards (51), longest reception over 22½ yards (27), will score a TD (-150); Chris Godwin over 72½ receiving yards (110), longest reception over 22½ yards (52), won’t score a TD (-200); Rob Gronkowski under 2½ receptions (1, +100), under 30½ receiving yards (29), longest reception over 15½ yards (29), won’t score a TD (-240).

Packers props: Aaron Rodgers over 25½ completions (33), over 36½ attempts (48), over 288½ passing yards (346), longest completion over 37½ yards (50), over 2½ TD passes (3, +120), will throw an interception (+175), under 10½ rushing yards (0); Aaron Jones under 58½ rushing yards (27), over 3½ receptions (4, +120), under 24½ receiving yards (7), longest reception under 12½ yards (5), won’t score a TD (-110); Davante Adams over 7½ receptions (9, -160), under 92½ receiving yards (67), longest reception under 24½ yards (15), will score a TD (-180); Robert Tonyan over 3½ receptions (4, +110), under 38½ receiving yards (22); Allen Lazard under 3½ receptions (3, +120), over 47½ receiving yards (62); Marquez Valdes-Scantling over 2½ receptions (4, +115), over 34½ receiving yards (115).

3:21 p.m.: After winning three road playoff games, the Buccaneers will be the first team to host the Super Bowl, which will be played Feb. 7 in Tampa, Florida. The Bucs were 3-point underdogs to the Chiefs and pick’em against the Bills in early lines posted this morning at the Westgate.

3:17 p.m.: FINAL: Buccaneers 31, Packers 26. The Bucs win outright as 3-point road underdogs, +160 ML. The game goes over 53½. Quarterback Tom Brady advances to his 10th Super Bowl and will face the winner of the Bills and Chiefs.

3:10 p.m.: The Buccaneers pick up a first down on a borderline defensive holding penalty and are close to closing out the win.

3:04 p.m.: Two-minute warning. The Buccaneers have second-and-1 at their 26, leading the Packers 31-26 with 1:56 to play. The Bucs are -1,000 on the live line (Packers +610).

3:01 p.m.: The Packers opt for a 26-yard field goal on fourth-and-goal at the 8. The Buccaneers still lead 31-26 with 2:05 left in the fourth quarter. The Bucs are -800 on the live line (Packers +520).

2:54 p.m.: That cashes over 53½ for the game.

2:53 p.m.: The Bucs stop the bleeding, but it’s still a one-score game. Ryan Succop hits a 46-yard field goal, and the Bucs extend their lead to 31-23 over the Packers with 4:42 left in the fourth quarter. The Bucs are -470 on the live line (Packers +340).

2:45 p.m.: Another three-and-out for Green Bay. The Buccaneers have the ball back at their 28, leading the Packers 28-23 with 8:10 left in the fourth quarter. The Bucs are -265 on the live line (Packers +210), total 58½.

2:42 p.m.: Brady throws another interception under heavy pressure, and the Packers have the ball back at their 24 with 9:15 left in the fourth quarter.

2:37 p.m.: The Bucs’ defense stands up and forces a three-and-out. The Bucs have the ball back at their 38 leading 28-23 with 10:39 left in the fourth quarter. The Bucs are -290 on the live line (Packers +225), spread -4½, total 61½.

2:31 p.m.: Brady is intercepted again off a deflection, and the Packers have the ball back at their 19 with 12:20 left in the fourth quarter. The Bucs still lead 28-23 but are down to -152 on the live line (Packers +124), spread -2½, total 64½.

2:24 p.m.: END OF THE THIRD QUARTER: Buccaneers 28, Packers 23. The Bucs are -210 on the live line (Packers +164), spread -3½, total 66½.

2:20 p.m.: Adams was -180 to score a TD. Rodgers cashes his TD pass prop of over 2½ (+120).

2:19 p.m.: We definitely have a ballgame again. Davante Adams catches a 2-yard TD pass, and the Packers cut the Buccaneers’ lead to 28-23 with 24 seconds left in the third quarter (2-point try failed). The Bucs are -168 on the live line (Packers +136), spread -2½, total 65½.

2:06 p.m.: Brady was -110 to throw an interception.

2:05 p.m.: We might have a ballgame again. Brady throws an interception, and the Packers have the ball back at their 32, trailing the Buccaneers 28-17 with 7:54 left in the third quarter. The Bucs are -215 on the live line (Packers +172), spread -3½, total 66½.

1:58 p.m.: Tonyan was +150 to score a TD. Rodgers still needs one more TD pass to cash his prop (2½).

1:57 p.m.: The Packers get one back. Robert Tonyan catches an 8-yard TD pass, and the Packers cut the Buccaneers’ lead to 28-17 with 9:28 left in the third quarter. The Bucs are -370 on the live line (Packers +280), spread -6½, total 67½.

1:50 p.m.: Brate was +390 to score a TD. Brady hits his TD pass prop with his third of the game (over 2 +110).

1:49 p.m.: The Bucs immediately make the Packers pay. Cameron Brate catches an 8-yard TD pass, and the Buccaneers extend their lead to 28-10 over the Packers with 13:54 left in the third quarter. The Bucs are -750 on the live line (Packers +490), spread -10½, total 64½.

1:45 p.m.: Disaster for the Packers, as Aaron Jones fumbles on the Packers’ opening drive. The Buccaneers have the ball at the Green Bay 8 with 13:58 left in the third quarter. The Bucs are -520 on the live line (Packers +370), spread -8½, total 62½.

1:43 p.m.: The second half is underway.

1:40 p.m.: Leading 21-10 at halftime, the Buccaneers are -250 on the live line (Packers +198), spread -4½, total 58½.

1:32 p.m.: Miller was +380 to score a TD.

1:31 p.m.: There will be a score in the final two minutes of the first half cashes at -350.

1:30 p.m.: Second-half line: Packers -6½, total 27½.

1:28 p.m.: HALFTIME: Buccaneers 21, Packers 10. First-half winners: Buccaneers +3 (-115), over 26½ (-120), Bucs +155 ML. The last-second TD also pushes the first half over the total.

1:27 p.m.: Wow. Scotty Miller catches a 39-yard TD pass with one second left in the second quarter, and the Buccaneers lead the Packers 21-10.

1:22 p.m.: Aaron Rodgers throws an interception with barely 30 seconds left in the first half. He was +175 to throw a pick.

1:16 p.m.: The prop that there will be a score in the final two minutes of the first half (yes -350) hangs in the balance.

1:15 p.m.: Two-minute warning. The Packers have the ball back after forcing a punt, trailing the Buccaneers 14-10. The Packers are favored at -115 on the live line (Bucs -105), spread -1½, total 54½.

1:06 p.m.: The Packers settle for a field goal. Mason Crosby hits a 24-yarder, and the Buccaneers still lead 14-10 with 4:59 left in the second quarter. The Bucs are -128 on the live line (Packers +104), spread -1½, total 56½.

12:52 p.m.: Godwin has also gone over his receiving yards prop (72½) with 80 so far.

12:47 p.m.: Fournette was +145 to score a TD. Chris Godwin caught a 52-yard pass on the drive, cashing the prop for his longest reception (over 22½ yards) and Brady’s longest completion (over 37½).

12:46 p.m.: The Bucs respond quickly. Leonard Fournette scores on a spectacular 20-yard TD run, and the Buccaneers take a 14-7 lead on the Packers with 12:24 left in the second quarter. The Bucs are -132 on the live line (Packers +108), spread -2½, total 60½.

12:41 p.m.: Valdes-Scantling was +280 to score a TD. He goes over his receiving yards prop of 34½. Longest TD over 42½ yards cashes.

12:40 p.m.: The Packers strike back. Marquez Valdes-Scantling catches a 50-yard TD pass down the sideline, and the Packers tie the Buccaneers at 7 with 14:07 left in the second quarter. The Packers are -160 on the live line (Bucs +130), spread -2½, total 51½.

12:35 p.m.: END OF THE FIRST QUARTER: Buccaneers 7, Packers 0. First-quarter winners: Bucs +½ (-130), under 10 (+100), Bucs +125 ML. The Packers are driving near midfield and are now favored on the live line at -118 (Bucs -104), spread -1½, total 48½.

12:29 p.m.: The Buccaneers punt, and the Packers have the ball at their 10. The Bucs are -120 on the live line (Packers -102), spread -1½, total 49½.

12:20 p.m.: The Packers punt, and the Buccaneers have the ball back at their 27 with 7:33 left in the first quarter. The Bucs are -144 on the live line (Packers +118), spread -2½, total 53½.

12:13 p.m.: Evans was 10-1 to score the first TD and +130 to score at any point. He also cashes longest completion over 22½ yards with a 27-yard grab on the first drive. First score will be a TD cashes at -180.

12:12 p.m.: Great start for the Buccaneers. Mike Evans catches a 15-yard TD pass, and the Bucs lead the Packers 7-0 with 10:59 left in the first quarter. The game is even on the live line (-110 both sides), total 56½.

12:02 p.m.: The NFC title game is about to kick off:

Buccaneers (+160) at Packers (-3 -120, 53½, -180), 12:05 p.m.

11:55 a.m.: Here are the props we’re tracking for Buccaneers-Packers:

General props: First score will be a TD (yes -180); largest lead over 14½ points; longest TD over 42½ yards; game will go to overtime (no -2,000); will be a defensive or special teams TD (no -310); will be a successful 2-point conversion (no -330); both teams will make 33-yard or longer field goals (no -120); will be a lead change in the fourth quarter (no -250); a team will score three straight times (yes -200); will be a score in the final two minutes of the first half (yes -350); game will be tied again after 0-0 (yes -110).

Buccaneers props: Tom Brady 25½ completions, 38½ attempts, 290½ passing yards, longest completion 37½ yards, 2 TD passes (under -130), will throw an interception (yes -110); Leonard Fournette 47½ rushing yards; Mike Evans 4½ receptions (over -120), 62½ receiving yards, longest reception 22½ yards, will score a TD (no -150); Chris Godwin 72½ receiving yards, longest reception 22½ yards, will score a TD (no -200); Rob Gronkowski 2½ receptions (over -120), 30½ receiving yards, longest reception 15½ yards, will score a TD (no -240).

Packers props: Aaron Rodgers 25½ completions, 36½ attempts, 288½ passing yards, longest completion 37½ yards, 2½ TD passes (under -140), will throw an interception (no -200), 10½ rushing yards; Aaron Jones 58½ rushing yards, 3½ receptions (under -140), 24½ receiving yards, longest reception 12½ yards, will score a TD (yes -110); Davante Adams 7½ receptions (over -160), 92½ receiving yards, longest reception 24½ yards, will score a TD (yes -180); Robert Tonyan 3½ receptions (under -130), 38½ receiving yards; Allen Lazard 3½ receptions (over -140), 47½ receiving yards; Marquez Valdes-Scantling 2½ receptions (under -135), 34½ receiving yards.

11:45 a.m.: Six-figure wagers have been placed on both sides of Buccaneers-Packers.

BetMGM confirmed a $550,000 wager to win $500,000 on Bucs +3.5.

William Hill confirmed a $500,000 wager to win $454,545 on Bucs +3.5.

William Hill also confirmed a $200,000 bet to win $160,000 on Packers -3 (-125).

First post: Here’s today’s schedule for the conference championship games:

NFC: Buccaneers (+160) at Packers (-3 -120, 53½, -180), 12:05 p.m.

AFC: Bills (+140) at Chiefs (-3 +100, 55½, -160), 3:40 p.m.

Contact Jim Barnes at jbarnes@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-0277. Follow @JimBarnesLV on Twitter.