NFL Week 11 betting breakdown: Predictions for every game
NFL BETTING BREAKDOWN
Mark Franco, FrancoSports.com, VegasInsider.com
Raiders (5-5) at Dolphins (6-3)
Time: 10 a.m., KLAS-8
Line/total: Dolphins -13½, 47
Analysis: The Raiders have a spark under interim coach Antonio Pierce with two straight wins and now visit the high-octane Dolphins coming off their bye week. Miami is 6-1 against the spread in its last seven games following its bye week. The Dolphins lead the NFL in scoring offense (31.7 points per game) and total offense with quarterback Tua Tagovailoa playing at an MVP level. This is the Raiders’ only game away from home over a six-game stretch. If you take away Miami’s 50-point rout of the Broncos earlier this year, it is still winning by an average of more than 16 points per game at home. I look for the Dolphins to score early and often and the back end of their defense to have a solid game against Raiders rookie QB Aidan O’Connell.
Pick: Dolphins 35, Raiders 20
Steelers (6-3) at Browns (6-3)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Browns -1, 33½
Analysis: A battle in the AFC North between the best two defenses in the league. The Steelers are the only team in the NFL to get outgained in every game this season, but they find ways to win. Pittsburgh is 6-0 in one-possession games. Cleveland QB Deshaun Watson will miss the rest of the season after having shoulder surgery. Cleveland listed 18 players on its Wednesday injury report. T.J. Watt’s 16-yard fumble return for a touchdown in the fourth quarter was the difference in a 26-22 Steelers win over the Browns in Week 2.
Pick: Steelers 20, Browns 17
Cardinals (2-8) at Texans (5-4)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Texans -5½, 48½
Analysis: The Texans are the surprise of the NFL behind QB C.J. Stroud, the odds-on favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year. He leads the NFL with in passing yards per game (291.8) and is sixth in QB rating (101). He is the heart of the offense, which is 10th in the league in scoring (24.1 ppg) and sixth in total offense (372.6 yards per game). The Cardinals’ pass defense ranks 31st in opponent quarterback rating (101) and 28th in opponent completion percentage (69.1). Arizona QB Kyler Murray came back from injury last week and looked average before leading the Cardinals to a 25-23 comeback win over Atlanta. Houston is favored here for good reason.
Pick: Texans 34, Cardinals 17
Chargers (4-5) at Packers (3-6)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Chargers -3, 44½
Analysis: The Chargers hit the road to Green Bay looking to get back on track after last week’s shootout loss to the Lions. Los Angeles has lost three of its last five games. QB Justin Herbert has thrown for 2,349 yards and 17 touchdowns and five interceptions. Four of the Packers’ six losses have been in one-score games. Green Bay has scored 20 points or fewer in seven straight games. The Chargers have covered four straight as favorites.
Pick: Chargers 23, Packers 19
Giants (2-8) at Commanders (4-6)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Commanders -9½, 37
Analysis: This is the ugly game of the week. Washington has lost six of its last eight games, and the primary reason is its porous defense. New York has lost seven of its last eight, with the only win 14-7 at home over Washington. The Giants are down to their third-string QB in undrafted Tommy DeVito and should be looking ahead to one of the top draft picks next season.
Pick: Commanders 22, Giants 13
Titans (3-6) at Jaguars (6-3)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Jaguars -7, 40
Analysis: The Tennessee offense has been struggling. RB Derrick Henry has been mostly a nonfactor, and QB Will Levis is playing like the rookie he is. The Jaguars were routed last week at home by the 49ers, ending their five-game winning streak. Jacksonville won both of its meetings with Tennessee last season. Look for this game to go under the total.
Pick: Jaguars 20, Titans 13
Bears (3-7) at Lions (7-2)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Lions -8, 47½
Analysis: The Bears are getting starting QB Justin Fields back this week, but Chicago is not a good team in any aspect of the game. Detroit has covered 11 in a row against the NFC North, and the Bears are on a 2-12 ATS slide in the division. Detroit’s explosive offense will get the job done against the Bears’ defense, which gives up 25.5 ppg.
Pick: Lions 38, Bears 17
Cowboys (6-3) at Panthers (1-8)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Cowboys -10½, 42
Analysis: The Cowboys look to keep their momentum going against the worst team in the NFL. The Cowboys are the only team to score 40 points or more three times this season. The question here is which version of Dallas will we see this week, as it has played down to its competition in some spots. I have the Cowboys getting the money.
Pick: Cowboys 33, Panthers 16
Buccaneers (4-5) at 49ers (6-3)
Time: 1:05 p.m., KVVU-5
Line/total: 49ers -12½, 42
Analysis: The 49ers played a complete game on the road last week at Jacksonville to snap a three-game losing streak. San Francisco QB Brock Purdy threw for 296 yards and three touchdowns as the offense was money again. The Buccaneers grabbed a 20-6 win at home last week over Tennessee. I’ll look for the 49ers and RB Christian McCaffrey to take care of business, and I’m willing to lay the double-digit chalk. The Bucs will be outclassed here.
Pick: 49ers 31, Bucs 16
Seahawks (6-3) at Rams (3-6)
Time: 1:25 p.m.
Line/total: Pick’em, 46½
Analysis: The Rams are coming off a bye, and QB Matthew Stafford is expected to play after missing a game due to a thumb injury. Los Angeles beat Seattle 30-13 on the road in the season opener by running the ball and should have success again against the weak Seahawks run defense. Seattle is off a tough win over Washington, while the Rams are off a bye.
Pick: Rams 27, Seattle 21
Jets (4-5) at Bills (5-5)
Time: 1:25 p.m., KLAS-8
Line/total: Bills -7, 39½
Analysis: The Bills fired offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey after Monday night’s 24-22 home loss to the Broncos in which Buffalo had four turnovers and two last-minute penalties that led to Denver’s game-winning field goal. Part of the season the Bills have had problems is bad play calling and the disappointing play of QB Josh Allen. The Jets’ offense is troublesome, but their defense keeps them in most games. New York has an NFL-worst streak of 36 possessions over 11 quarters without an offensive TD. Tough call here, but the best bet is under the total.
Pick: Bills 16, Jets 10
Vikings (6-4) at Broncos (4-5)
Time: 5:20 p.m., KSNV-3
Line/total: Broncos -2½, 42½
Analysis: Minnesota looks to extend a five-game winning streak at Denver on “Sunday Night Football.” The Vikings, coming off a 27-19 win over New Orleans, are a banged-up team with QB Kirk Cousins out and wide receiver Justin Jefferson questionable. The Broncos are riding a three-game winning streak after victories over the Packers, Chiefs and Bills. QB Joshua Dobbs has been a good fit for Minnesota.
Pick: Vikings 23, Broncos 20
Eagles (8-1) at Chiefs (7-2)
Time: 5:15 p.m. Monday, KTNV-13, ESPN
Line/total: Chiefs -2½, 46
Analysis: The Chiefs host the Eagles on “Monday Night Football” in a rematch of last season’s Super Bowl. Kansas City is coming off a bye and I have learned to never go against Chiefs coach Andy Reid off a bye, though Philadelphia also is coming off a bye. The Eagles are again the best team in the NFC while the Chiefs are again tops in the AFC. Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts are both playing good football, and the defenses are even. Not sure we’ll see a 38-35 shootout like the Super Bowl, but this will be the game of the week to watch.
Pick: Chiefs 27, Eagles 24
