NFL Week 11 Capsules
SUNDAY'S GAMES
Oakland (5-4) at Pittsburgh (6-3)
Time: 10 a.m. Line: Steelers -8 Total: 41½
TV: CBS (8)
■ Weather: Mid-50s, 20 percent chance of rain
■ Facts: This is the Raiders' fifth jet-leg game the past two seasons (crossing three time zones and playing in the early Sunday time slot). Oakland is 1-3 against the spread in this scenario, but that victory came last year at Pittsburgh, 27-24 as a 14½-point underdog, the biggest upset of the season. ... Since 2006, West Coast teams are 14-28 ATS in jet-lag situations. ... Pittsburgh and Oakland met in the postseason a record five straight times from 1972 to 1976, with the victor winning the Super Bowl three times (1974, 1975 and 1976). ... At least 10 penalties have been marched off against the Raiders in seven of their nine games. No other team has had four such games.
■ Analysis: That Raiders bandwagon wouldn't be rolling on a three-game winning streak if not for the team's extreme good fortune in rallying to beat Kansas City in Game 9. Oakland had only 49 yards at halftime and easily could have been down 17-0 instead of 10-0. Then came the Raiders' kickoff return for a TD to open the second half. This won't happen again against a better team, especially at Heinz Field.
■ Forecast: Steelers 27, Raiders 13
Houston (4-5) at N.Y. Jets (7-2)
Time: 10 a.m. Line: Jets -7 Total: 45½
RADIO: KWWN (1100 AM, 98.9 FM)
■ Weather: High 40s, 10 percent chance of rain
■ Facts: Despite losing last week at Jacksonville, the Texans matched a league high with three TD drives of 80 yards. ... Jets QB Mark Sanchez (probable, calf) totaled eight TD throws and zero INTs through Week 4, but since has thrown for only four TDs with six interceptions while plummeting from fourth to 24th on the passer chart. This despite facing only one unit in the top 16 in defensive passer rating. ... Houston's Matt Schaub (probable, knee), 14th on the passer chart, spent Tuesday night in a hospital with a bursa sac issue, but said he expects to play. ... The Jets wasted a 19-play march against Cleveland last week when it ended with a shanked Nick Folk field-goal attempt. The drive matches the longest scoreless possession by anyone the past two seasons.
■ Analysis: New York is good for at least 24 points, a total met or surpassed by the last 10 Houston opponents. The Jets are also good for stifling top quarterbacks, such as their 47.1 completion percentage against when facing Tom Brady, Kyle Orton and Aaron Rodgers this season. But not good enough to cover.
■ Forecast: Jets 27, Texans 24
Baltimore (6-3) at Carolina (1-8)
Time: 10 a.m. Line: Ravens -10 Total: 37
TV/RADIO: None
■ Weather: Low 70s, clear
■ Facts: QB Brian St. Pierre will start for Carolina, which must make rookie backup Tony Pike feel like garbage. Here's the poop on St. Pierre, 30: He has thrown five passes in his "career" and was home last Sunday changing diapers. ... Baltimore is the first double-digit road favorite this season. Last year, such teams were 6-11 ATS. ... Overall, favorites of 10-plus points are 3-8 against the line in 2010, 0-2 by the Ravens. ... QB Vinny Testaverde came off the street to start for the Panthers in 2007 at Arizona and led Carolina to a 25-10 victory. But Vinny wasn't handing off to the team's fourth-string running back (Mike Goodson).
■ Analysis: Since 2003, no one dared let St. Pierre be their No. 1 guy. And then Panthers coach John Fox called. "The fact that he's been in the huddle a number of times (and) called plays in an NFL game" tipped the scales in St. Pierre's favor. Good luck to the Ravens finding film on him. He wasn't even in a training camp this summer.
■ Forecast: Ravens 30, Panthers 6
Washington (4-5) at Tennessee (5-4)
Time: 10 a.m. Line: Titans -7 Total: 44
TV/RADIO: None
■ Weather: Low 50s, clear
■ Facts: Coach Mike Shanahan's Redskins were blown out 59-28 at home by Philadelphia on Monday night. In 2007, his Broncos lost games by 41-7 and 44-7, and both times won their next game as an underdog. ... Teams coming off 30-plus losses are 14-10-1 ATS the past two seasons, but 1-3 the last three weeks. ... Tennessee WR Randy Moss has had two receptions for a total of 34 yards the past three weeks, including a bye. He totaled 19 receptions of 40-plus yards from 2007 to 2009, but has none in 2010. ... In 2006, The Titans were 0-5 when they beat the Redskins 25-22 at Washington as an 11-point underdog.
■ Analysis: Titans QB Vince Young (ankle) is ready to return to the starting lineup, but that's largely due to backup Kerry Collins (doubtful, calf) being in worse condition. Meanwhile, Shanahan, moneybags QB Donovan McNabb and ex-Titans DL Albert Haynesworth will be motivated to rally Washington in a save-face game.
■ Forecast: Redskins 27, Titans 24
Detroit (2-7) at Dallas (2-7)
Time: 10 a.m. Line: Cowboys -6½ Total: 47
TV/RADIO: None
■ Weather: Mid-70s, 10 percent chance of rain
■ Facts: Thanks to Dallas' 33-20 victory against the Giants last week, Cowboys QB Jon Kitna improved to 2-13 in his past 15 starts dating to 2007. Make that 2-13 ATS, too. ... Detroit was a 14-12 loser to a winless Bills team last week. Since 2000, victims of teams 0-8 or worse are 1-4 ATS their next game. ... In the 2006 season finale, the Lions beat the host Cowboys 39-32 as a 13½-point underdog, Dallas' biggest upset loss the past 15 seasons. ... Detroit RB Jahvid Best (probable, toe) leads the league in yards after the catch with 418.
■ Analysis: The Jason Garrett (interim) coaching era in Dallas got off to nice start with that victory as a 13-point underdog last week, but some things remain troubling. Such as not getting a sack of Eli Manning despite his 48 drop-backs and not being able to get off the field. Dallas played a season-high 76 defensive snaps. Detroit should stay close, but still lose its 26th straight road game.
■ Forecast: Cowboys 26, Lions 24
Green Bay (6-3) at Minnesota (3-6)
Time: 10 a.m. Line: Packers -3 Total: 44
TV/RADIO: Fox (5), KXNT-FM (100.5)
■ Weather: Indoors
■ Facts: The Vikings are 3½ games out of the NFC North lead and three out of the wild-card race. Only five other teams are more hopelessly out of contention. ... Visiting clubs coming off Week 10 byes, such as Green Bay, have gone 9-1 against the spread since 2002. ... Vikings QB Brett Favre is 6-1 in this series since 2006, but lost the last game four weeks ago at Green Bay, 28-24. Last Sunday he had four turnovers in a "must win" game, which turned into a 27-13 Chicago victory.
■ Analysis: Last year as this juncture, Favre was the league's leading passer with 17 TD throws and three INTs. Now he's 31st with 10 TDs and 16 picks. And with his three prime receivers either lame (Sidney Rice, hip) or questionable (Percy Harvin, ankle; Bernard Berrian, groin), he'll continue to force throws. Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers, meanwhile, has been operating out of his comfort zone since that victory over Minnesota in Week 7.
■ Forecast: Packers 23, Vikings 14
Buffalo (1-8) at Cincinnati (2-7)
Time: 10 a.m. Line: Bengals -5½ Total: 44
TV/RADIO: None
■ Weather: Mid-60s, 10 percent chance of rain
■ Facts: Buffalo has allowed four opponents 200-plus yards rushing, an NFL high, but its last two opponents totaled only 191. Cincinnati's season high is 149. ... Bengals RB Cedric Benson, who led the team in rushing in each of the first eight games, has been slowed by a foot injury (questionable) and had 24 yards on 14 carries last week at Indy. ... Cincinnati held Colts QB Peyton Manning without a TD throw in their 23-17 loss. The only other QB not to have a TD pass against the Bengals has been New England's Tom Brady. ... Until Bills RB Fred Jackson had 135 rushing yards last week against Detroit, no Buffalo runner had reached 80 in a game this season.
■ Analysis: Perhaps having a home game at this stage isn't necessarily an advantage for Cincinnati, last year's AFC North champ. The Bengals are on a five-game losing streak and stand four games out of the nearest playoff berth. Buffalo will be the only team on the field not wishing the season was over.
■ Forecast: Bills 27, Bengals 20
Cleveland (3-6) at Jacksonville (5-4)
Time: 10 a.m. Line: Jaguars -1½ Total: 43
TV/RADIO: None
■ Weather: Low 70s, clear
■ Facts: The Browns' defense was on the field for 91 snaps last week against the Jets, the most for any team the past four seasons. ... When these squads met at Cleveland in Week 16 last year, the wind chill was minus-1 in the Browns' 23-17 victory as a 2½-point underdog. ... Jacksonville's David Garrard, the league's No. 2-rated passer, is the only QB to have a passer rating higher than 130 three times this year. He's helped RB Maurice Jones-Drew find room enough to run for 135 and 105 yards his past two outings.
■ Analysis: The Browns must be deflated after falling at home to the Jets in gruesome fashion last week after sort of getting into the playoff hunt with a home stunner over New England the week before. Cleveland could well be flat on the road against a Jaguars team still feeling the energy of last week's Hail Mary victory against Houston.
■ Forecast: Jaguars 28, Browns 13
Arizona (3-6) at Kansas City (5-4)
Time: 10 a.m. Line: Chiefs -7½ Total: 44
TV/RADIO: None
■ Weather: Low 70s, 10 percent chance of rain
■ Facts: In their last meeting in Kansas City, the Cardinals won 49-0, their most lopsided shutout victory since a 59-0 trouncing of the Milwaukee Badgers in 1925. ... Over the past five weeks, Chiefs QB Matt Cassel has 12 TD passes and only one INT, climbing from 25th to ninth on the passer chart. ... The Cardinals abandon the run faster than anyone else, three times having fewer than 15 rushes in a game. ... Arizona, which has lost its past four road games by an average of 20 points, has been gouged for five-plus sacks a league-high four times.
■ Analysis: The Cardinals, led by previously benched retread QB Derek Anderson, might rank as the worst team in the league entering Week 11. They've been outgained in each of their past eight games by a gigantic average of 162 yards per game. Kansas City has way too much firepower and desire for this bunch.
■ Forecast: Chiefs 35, Cardinals 14
Seattle (5-4) at New Orleans (6-3)
Time: 1:05 p.m. Line: Saints -11½ Total: 44
RADIO: KXNT-FM (100.5)
■ Weather: Indoors
■ Facts: Since 2002, teams coming off Week 10 byes (such as the Saints) are 17-5 against the line in their next game. ... For a league-high third time this year, the Seahawks are facing a team off a rest week. They beat the Cardinals 22-10, but lost to the Giants, 41-7. ... Seattle QB Matt Hasselbeck (probable) says his injured left wrist is causing no problems. ... New Orleans stands as the biggest favorite of the week. Such picks are 3-7 against the line this season. ... Seattle hasn't had a 100-yard rusher since Week 10 last year (Justin Forsett), the longest drought for any team.
■ Analysis: Well-rested Saints QB Drew Brees should find the pickings easy against a Seahawks team that's yielded four 300-yard passers, including Jason Campbell and (gasp!) Derek Anderson. There even could be a Reggie Bush (questionable, fibula) sighting, but the guess is he'll wind up sitting out yet another week.
■ Forecast: Saints 35, Seahawks 21
Atlanta (7-2) at St. Louis (4-5)
Time: 1:05 p.m. Line: Falcons -3 Total: 43
TV/RADIO: None
■ Weather: Indoors
■ Facts: The Falcons are coming off an extended rest after their 26-21 home victory over Baltimore on Nov. 11. But beware: Over the past two seasons, teams coming off Thursday games are 3-10-1 against the line the next week. ... Last week, the Rams sacked the 49ers' Troy Smith five times and held San Francisco without a third-down conversion, yet still lost 23-20 in OT. ... The Rams would have a 6-2-1 mark if games ended after the third quarter. Atlanta would be 4-4-1.
■ Analysis: The Falcons boast of good health as they begin their stretch run in pursuit of the NFC South title. But they'll be thrown off their routine because this is their first road game in more than a month. And St. Louis, on a four-game home winning streak, will face a defense that has allowed better than 51 percent of third downs to be converted its past seven games.
■ Forecast: Rams 28, Falcons 21
Tampa Bay (6-3) at San Francisco (3-6)
Time: 1:05 p.m. Line: 49ers -3 Total: 41½
TV/RADIO: None
■ Weather: High 50s, 70 percent chance of rain
■ Facts: The Buccaneers are 6-0 against the spread on the road dating to Week 15 last season. ... Tampa Bay's leading receiver, rookie Mike Williams, was charged with DUI on Friday. His status is listed as probable. ... San Francisco QB Troy Smith is averaging 11.75 yards a throw in his two starts, 2.8 yards better than the league leader in that category.
■ Analysis: The 49ers didn't look good flailing at Rams bulldozer Steven Jackson last week and now face pad-popping LeGarrette Blount, who has taken over the running duties in Tampa Bay to rave reviews. Also, even though Bucs QB Josh Freeman doesn't have much more experience than Smith, he knows how to win on the road.
■ Forecast: Buccaneers 21, 49ers 16
Indianapolis (6-3) at New England (7-2)
Time: 1:15 p.m. Line: Patriots -3 Total: 50½
TV/RADIO: CBS (8), KWWN (1100 AM, 98.9 FM)
■ Weather: Low 40s, 20 percent chance of rain
■ Facts: Indianapolis had a plus-5 turnover differential last week against Cincinnati and still didn't cover. No team has had that big an edge without a point-spread victory the past five seasons. ... Tom Brady wasn't sacked in the Patriots' victory at Pittsburgh last week despite dropping back 43 times. In Games 4 through 6, he went down 10 times. ... Flashback: In 1951, the N.Y. Yankees had a plus-5 turnover edge against the Rams, but were pounded 54-14. ... Indy, which has seen a steady stream of injured players head to the sideline, had its worst yardage day of the season last week with 256. The Colts entered with a norm of 395.
■ Analysis: The Patriots' 29th-ranked defense has been maligned, especially after Peyton Hillis gouged it for 184 yards two weeks ago at Cleveland. On the other hand, New England can step it up, such as when it held San Diego to its lowest rush total of the season and the Steelers last week to its second-lowest total. Colts QB Peyton Manning doesn't have enough bullets for this one.
■ Forecast: Patriots 34, Colts 21
N.Y. Giants (6-3) at Philadelphia (6-3)
Time: 5:20 p.m. Line: Eagles -3½ Total: 48½
TV/RADIO: NBC (3), KWWN (1100 AM, 98.9 FM)
■ Weather: Low 50s, 10 percent chance of rain
■ Facts: This is the fourth time since 2003 Philadelphia is playing host to the Giants on a Sunday after a Monday night game, including last season. The Eagles are 3-0 ATS in such matchups. ... Philly QB Michael Vick, the league's top-rated passer, has been facing a lot of bottom-15 defenses, including two games against 32nd-rated Washington. New York's defense is No. 1. ... The Giants have gone two straight games without knocking out the enemy QB. They have five KOs this season. ... Last year, the Eagles beat the Giants 40-17 and 45-38, the first time in 61 years they had consecutive games of 40-plus points against New York.
■ Analysis: For sure the Eagles won't be replicating Monday's 59-point effort any time soon. But as for the Giants, their offensive line is in tatters, with key performers Shaun O'Hara and David Diehl out and tackle Shawn Andrew questionable (back). That makes it rough for RB Ahmad Bradshaw, which likely will prompt Eli Manning to make silly throws under pressure.
■ Forecast: Eagles 24, Giants 17
MONDAY'S GAME
Denver (3-6) at San Diego (4-5)
Time: 5:30 p.m. Line: Chargers -10 Total: 50½
TV/RADIO: ESPN (30), KWWN (1100 AM, 98.9 FM)
■ Weather: Low 60s, 30 percent chance of rain
■ Facts: San Diego, which might get back WRs Legedu Naanee and Malcom Floyd (both questionable, hamstrings), begins a stretch of four home games in five weeks, including visits by each AFC West team. ... Even though the Broncos had their most productive rushing day of the season last week in a 49-29 victory against Kansas City (153 yards on 31 carries), they still average a league-low 76.8 ground yards a game.
■ Analysis: Over the past three weeks, Denver foes Matt Cassel, Troy Smith and Jason Campbell have teamed to throw for seven TDs, no INTs and 746 yards. Imagine what a well-rested Philip Rivers, the league's third-rated passer, will do with more of his weapons back.
■ Forecast: Chargers 34, Broncos 17
Last week: 7-7 vs. spread; 10-4 straight up
Season total: 73-66-5 (.525) vs. spread; 85-59 (.590) straight up
