NFL Week 14 betting breakdown: Predictions for every game
NFL BETTING BREAKDOWN
Chip Chirimbes, VegasInsider.com, Chipwins.com, TheAplay.com
Vikings (6-6) at Raiders (5-7)
Time: 1:05 p.m., KVVU-5
Line/total: Vikings -2½, 40½
Analysis: A battle of unproven quarterbacks pits Raiders rookie Aidan O’Connell against Vikings flash-in-the-pan Joshua Dobbs, whose QB rating has dropped each of his last four starts. Wide receiver Justin Jefferson is back but can Dobbs get the ball to him? The Raiders are coming off of two straight losses to Miami and Kansas City, but they’re more motivated behind O’Connell and interim coach Antonio Pierce.
Pick: Raiders 19, Vikings 17
Jaguars (8-4) at Browns (7-5)
Time: 10 a.m., KLAS-8
Line/total: Browns -3, 33
Analysis: Weather might affect this total. If it’s a conservative day, Cleveland should stay in command behind its No. 1-ranked defense and strong running game. The Jaguars will be hampered if QB Trevor Lawrence, listed as questionable with an ankle injury, sits out. Backup C.J. Beathard is 2-10 as a starter with 18 touchdown passes and 14 interceptions.
Pick: Browns 16, Jaguars 13
Rams (6-6) at Ravens (9-3)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Ravens -7½, 40
Analysis: Baltimore has already cashed the over on its season win total of 8½. The Rams, who have won three straight, are within a victory of exceeding their season win total as well. The Ravens have won six of their last seven and are coming off their bye week. They’re 18-1 straight-up against the NFC with Lamar Jackson at QB and 12-3 after a bye.
Pick: Ravens 24, Rams 16
Lions (9-3) at Bears (4-8)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Lions -3, 43½
Analysis: Wind may be a factor in this one, which could help the under. Detroit will try to outscore Chicago with the NFL’s No. 2 offense. The Bears, on the other hand, want to control the ball. Chicago ran for 183 yards and held the Lions 62 yards below their season average in the two teams’ first meeting of the season Nov. 19, a 31-26 Detroit victory.
Pick: Lions 22, Bears 19
Panthers (1-11) at Saints (5-7)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Saints -6, 39
Analysis: I look at both of these teams with disgust. They’ve combined to cover four times in 24 chances, for a total ATS record of 4-17-3. The Panthers were the first team to be eliminated from the playoffs this season. Rookie QB Bryce Young has been sacked 44 times. Former Raiders QB Derek Carr led the Saints to their only division win of the season at Carolina in Week 2, a 20-17 victory.
Pick: Saints 23, Panthers 20
Buccaneers (5-7) at Falcons (6-6)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Falcons -1½, 41
Analysis: It’s tough to beat Tampa Bay’s 5-1 ATS road record, though it has won only two of those games straight-up. The Falcons are a short favorite here for a division leader at home. The Buccaneers had lost six of seven before beating the Panthers last week but not covering. Atlanta beat Tampa Bay 16-13 on Oct. 22. The Falcons have QB issues, as second-year passer Desmond Ridder has lost six fumbles, thrown eight interceptions and been sacked 28 times.
Pick: Buccaneers 22, Falcons 20
Colts (7-5) at Bengals (6-6)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line: Bengals -2, 44
Analysis: Both teams are rolling with backup QBs, as Gardner Minshew has taken the reins for Indianapolis and Jake Browning has stepped forward for Cincinnati. The Colts are on a four-game win streak that has moved them into the seventh playoff seed, while Cincinnati is 12th in the AFC. The Bengals have no bite on defense, ranking dead last, but Indianapolis is not much better at 26th.
Pick: Colts 23, Bengals 20
Texans (7-5) at Jets (4-8)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Texans -3½, 33
Analysis: Zach Wilson is starting at QB once again for the grounded Jets. It’s difficult to see this team, even if four-time NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers were healthy, going to the Super Bowl with this offense.
Pick: Jets 16, Texans 13
Seahawks (6-6) at 49ers (9-3)
Time: 1:05 p.m.
Line/total: 49ers -13½, 46½
Analysis: We all saw what the 49ers did at Seattle on Thanksgiving in a 31-13 blowout win. Seattle is in for a long day if San Francisco comes to play again. The Seahawks should prepare more intensely this week after getting embarrassed last time. The 49ers are just cruising along after winning four straight, but they are coming off an emotional win in Philadelphia, which could leave them a little flat.
Pick: 49ers 24, Seahawks 23
Broncos (6-6) at Chargers (5-7)
Time: 1:25 p.m.
Line/total: Chargers -2½, 43½
Analysis: The way to win with the Chargers is take them when they’re getting points on the road and play against them as home favorites. Denver’s win streak ended in last week’s 22-17 loss at Houston, as Broncos QB Russell Wilson turned it over in the end zone in the final seconds. Wilson had a nice run, but I expect the difference between him and Los Angeles QB Justin Herbert to be obvious by the end of this one. The Chargers are still alive after their 6-0 win over the Patriots. They’ll move one step closer to the playoff hunt after this game.
Pick: Chargers 33, Broncos 23
Bills (6-6) at Chiefs (8-4)
Time: 1:25 p.m., KLAS-8
Line/total: Chiefs -1, 48½
Analysis: The Super Bowl champions being at home as less than a field-goal favorite against big-time underachievers has me hating my side. The Chiefs have yet to put it into high gear and play their best football. Kansas City leads the AFC West, while Buffalo is on the outside looking in on the playoffs right now. There is all kinds of noise surrounding the Bills, and it is not good. But, with this price, I see a desperate Buffalo team winning.
Pick: Bills 34, Chiefs 30
Eagles (10-2) at Cowboys (9-3)
Time: 5:20 p.m., KSNV-3
Line/total: Cowboys -3½, 52
Analysis: Philadelphia just doesn’t pass the eye test as it did last season. Dallas, on the other hand, has been a juggernaut at home. The Cowboys are 6-0 (5-1 ATS) while averaging 41 points at AT&T Stadium. The Eagles won the first meeting 28-23, but the Cowboys appeared to outplay them. Dallas just failed to execute when it needed to the most. This is a strong number. Both teams were destroyed by the 49ers, but Philadelphia will have a tougher time recovering from last week’s beating.
Pick: Cowboys 33, Eagles 24
Titans (4-8) at Dolphins (9-3)
Time: 5:15 p.m. Monday, ESPN
Line/total: Dolphins -13, 46
Analysis: Miami is supposed to romp against weaker clubs like the Titans. Tennessee is 0-6 straight-up and 1-5 ATS on the road, while Miami is 5-0 straight-up and 4-1 ATS as a host. The Titans are last in the league in completions per game with only 17.5. The Dolphins are No. 11 with 23.7 completions per game. The difference in styles could not be more dramatic.
Pick: Dolphins 30, Titans 17
Packers (6-6) at New York Giants (4-8)
Time: 5:15 p.m. Monday, KTNV-13
Line/total: Packers -6½, 36½
Analysis: Hometown QB Tommy DeVito has throngs of Giants fans rooting with hope, and the Packers are back in love with QB Jordan Love. Green Bay has won its last three games to move into the seventh seed in the NFC. New York, for its part, was about to quit on the season until DeVito gave them a spark. He’s been sacked on 22 percent of his dropbacks, but he stands tall in the pocket and takes the hit.
Pick: Giants 18, Packers 16
