NFL Week 6 betting breakdown: Predictions for every game

Chip Chirimbes, @chipperwins, Gamblersworld.net

Steelers (3-2) at Raiders (2-3)

Time: 1:05 p.m., CBS

Line/total: Steelers -3, 36½

Analysis: In-game coaching decisions are so important, and it appears to be the weakest part of the Raiders’ game under coach Antonio Pierce. Pittsburgh is known for solid coaching under Mike Tomlin, and he might use a two-headed quarterback system that is ready for a change from Justin Fields to Russell Wilson. I don’t know if there will be a difference, but many handicappers I respect do not believe the Steelers will end up above .500, which would end Tomlin’s 17-year streak of winning seasons. For the Raiders, their change at quarterback from Gardner Minshew to Aidan O’Connell should come with a more aggressive attitude, especially in play calling.

Pick: Raiders 23, Steelers 13

Jaguars (1-4) vs. Bears (3-2), at London

Time: 6:30 a.m., NFLN

Line/total: Bears -1, 44½

Analysis: The Jaguars finally broke into the win column as Trevor Lawrence threw for 371 yards with his first solid showing of the season. He is near the bottom of the pack of starting quarterbacks in completion percentage at 59.6. Bears rookie quarterback Caleb Williams is 3-1-1 against the spread, and the favorite is 31-15 ATS in international games. Still, the Jaguars have regrouped after getting a win.

Pick: Jaguars 23, Bears 20

Commanders (4-1) at Ravens (3-2)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Ravens -6½, 51½

Analysis: Baltimore has outgained all five opponents by more than 100 yards on the ground behind running back Derrick Henry and quarterback Lamar Jackson. Henry leads the Ravens in rushing, with 572 yards, and Jackson is second with 363 yards. Baltimore leads the NFL in total offense, averaging 447.6 yards per game. Washington rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels is the real deal, directing the NFL’s highest-scoring offense (31.0 points per game) while winning and covering four of his first five starts. The Commanders are on a 10-3 over run, and the Ravens are on an 8-3 over uptick.

Pick: Ravens 42, Commanders 31

Cardinals (2-3) at Packers (3-2)

Time: 10 a.m., Fox

Line/total: Packers -5, 47½

Analysis: Kyler Murray has led Arizona to five straight opening-drive touchdowns, but it has been the rest of the game that has hurt the Cardinals, despite beating the 49ers last week. Taking to the road at Lambeau Field, they’ll find their Waterloo as the Packers lead the NFL with 14 takeaways. Green Bay quarterback Jordan Love is healthy again, and that will be the difference here for a Packers team ninth in the league in scoring with 25.6 ppg.

Pick: Packers 30, Cardinals 23

Texans (4-1) at Patriots (1-4)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Texans -7, 38

Analysis: New England’s No. 3 overall draft pick, Drake Maye, will be the fourth rookie quarterback to start this season, and the Patriots can use any kind of help. New England has lost four straight following its season-opening win at Cincinnati. Houston is 4-1, but it has not been impressive. The Texans are on a 1-4 ATS skid as favorites, while the Patriots are on a 5-2 spread surge as underdogs of 7 points or more.

Pick: Texans 20, Patriots 16

Buccaneers (3-2) at Saints (2-3)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Buccaneers -3½, 41½

Analysis: Remember that Saints squad that scored 47 points and 44 points in its first two games? I don’t, because New Orleans has dropped three straight and will be without starting quarterback Derek Carr. Many might feel this is a blessing, but his replacement, rookie Spencer Rattler, will be making his first NFL start against the league’s No. 2-rated quarterback in Baker Mayfield, who has thrown 11 touchdown passes and only two interceptions. The road team has won seven of the past 10 meetings in this series but for the most part were underdogs. That’s not the case here. Heavy action on the Bucs drives me to a Saints recovery.

Pick: Saints 20, Buccaneers 19

Browns (1-4) at Eagles (2-2)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Eagles -9, 42½

Analysis: Impossible to take the Browns, but who wants to lay points with the Eagles? Two of the more disappointing teams. Philadelphia is on an 0-7-1 spread slide as a favorite of 5 points or more, and underdogs of 6½ points or more this season are 16-2-1 ATS and 11-8 straight-up. Cleveland quarterback Deshaun Watson is one of the league’s lowest-rated passers, and he gets no help from a makeshift offensive line. The Browns can’t be this bad.

Pick: Browns 21, Eagles 20

Colts (2-3) at Titans (1-3)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Titans-2½, 43

Analysis: The Colts come in limping without running back Jonathan Taylor, who will miss his second straight game with an ankle injury. Indianapolis quarterback Joe Flacco threw for 359 yards and three touchdowns last week, but it is wins that count, and the Colts lost 37-34 to the Jaguars. The Titans have their own quarterback issues with Will Levis dropping the ball too often, but he will get the start after Tennessee’s bye week. Indy has the NFL’s worst total defense, allowing 419.2 yards per game, while Tennessee can tighten up at home with the NFL’s No.1 total defense, allowing just 243.8 ypg.

Pick: Titans 27, Colts 23

Chargers (2-2) at Broncos (3-2)

Time: 1:05 p.m.

Line/total: Chargers -3, 36

Analysis: How ’bout that Bo Nix? The rookie Broncos quarterback has more wins than Los Angeles quarterback Justin Herbert. But he has been anything but impressive, throwing errant passes but still controlling the ball. The Chargers are hungry for a shot at the rookie and will be ready defensively. The total indicates a low-scoring affair. Los Angeles’ lackluster offense is fourth from the bottom at 263.8 ypg, while the Broncos rank third in total defense, allowing just 271.2 ypg.

Pick: Chargers 19, Broncos 13

Falcons (3-2) at Panthers (1-4)

Time: 1:25 p.m.

Line/total: Falcons -6, 47

Analysis: The Falcons most likely will be a heavy public play, and I am always uncomfortable when I am on the popular side. The Panthers made the move to quarterback Andy Dalton, and at least he plays the position like a professional. With an offensive line that struggles and a defense that anyone can run on, Carolina’s breakdowns come way too often. Atlanta believes it has put together the parts needed to claim the division crown, but it must win games like this to do so.

Pick: Falcons 24, Panthers 19

Lions (3-1) at Cowboys (3-2)

Time: 1:25 p.m., Fox

Line/total: Lions -3, 52½

Analysis: The Cowboys have shown life after getting shunned because of their defensive performance in a 44-19 beatdown by the Saints. But Dallas has rebounded with a victory at the New York Giants in which it didn’t cover and an outright win as an underdog at Pittsburgh. Detroit hasn’t impressed yet, and Dallas as a home underdog creates interest. But the injury edge and offensive talent level go to the Lions, who eat weak and injured defenses alive.

Pick: Lions 27, Cowboys 26

Bengals (1-4) at Giants (2-3)

Time: 5:20 p.m., NBC

Line/total: Bengals -3½, 47

Analysis: Can it get any worse for the Bengals? Sure it can. Wait until this one is final. The Giants, to the surprise of many, have won twice and lost two close games after a season-opening blowout loss to Minnesota. Cincinnati gave one away against the Ravens and is at the point of no return in its season. Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow has been great, but the defense — well, the Bengals don’t play defense. New York quarterback Daniel Jones has picked up his game since an opening loss, and the G-men play decent enough defense to get the money at home.

Pick: Giants 27, Bengals 24

Bills (3-2) at Jets (2-3)

Time: 5:15 p.m. Monday, ABC, ESPN

Line/total: Bills -2, 40½

Analysis: The Aaron Rodgers saga continues, as many believe the Jets quarterback was behind coach Robert Saleh’s removal. Regardless of whether that’s true or not, this team can’t look any worse. Rodgers looks slow, and he’s been inaccurate. He vows that things will get better, but now that his offensive coordinator, Nathaniel Hackett, has been stripped of his play-calling duties, his future appears uncertain. Many Buffalo fans were hoping for a coaching change after Sean McDermott’s play calling in the final minute of last week’s 23-20 loss to the Texans. Bills quarterback Josh Allen is coming off the worst day of his career. With a win here, the Jets will tie Buffalo for the AFC East lead.

Pick: Jets 19, Bills 17