NFL Week 9 betting breakdown: Predictions for every game

NFL BREAKDOWN

Alan “Dr. Alan” Dumond, Wizardraceandsports.com, @WizardPicks

Giants (2-6) at Raiders (3-5)

Time: 1:25 p.m., KVVU-5

Line/total: Raiders -2, 37½

Analysis: The Giants blew a late fourth-quarter lead over the Jets last week en route to their fifth loss in six games. The Raiders’ loss to the Lions on Monday cost coach Josh McDaniels his job and quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo his starting spot. In steps interim coach Antonio Pierce and rookie QB Aidan O’Connell. The Raiders were in desperate need of a shake-up and are now in rally mode around the new coach and QB. That will carry them across the finish line at home.

Pick: Raiders 17, Giants 14

Dolphins (6-2) vs. Chiefs (6-2) (at Frankfurt, Germany)

Time: 6:30 a.m., NFLN

Line/total: Chiefs -2, 50

Analysis: After the Chiefs lost last week at Denver, snapping their 16-game winning streak against the Broncos, they arrive in Germany in need of a bounce-back win. History is on Kansas City’s side, as the Chiefs are a stellar 10-1 straight-up after a loss since 2020. All of the Dolphins’ wins have come against teams under .500, and when they have stepped up in class and played good teams in the Bills and Eagles, they have lost badly. Miami might keep this game close, but look for history to repeat itself.

Pick: Chiefs 27, Dolphins 24

Vikings (4-4) at Falcons ( 4-4)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Falcons -4, 37½

Analysis: This game will feature a battle of backup QBs as Vikings rookie Jaren Hall will make his first NFL start and Atlanta’s Taylor Heinicke will start in place of the benched Desmond Ridder. It’s hard to trust Atlanta as the favorite, even against a rookie making his first start, as the Falcons are a money-burning 1-4 against the spread as favorites this season. This sets up to be a low-scoring game.

Pick: Falcons 17, Vikings 13

Seahawks (5-2) at Ravens (6-2)

Time: 10 a.m., KLAS-8

Line/total: Ravens -6, 44

Analysis: The Seahawks have won five of their last six, while the Ravens have won three straight and four of five. Baltimore is the healthiest it has been all year, and Lamar Jackson is hitting on all cylinders right now. Seattle is a trendy underdog pick, but look for the Ravens to hold serve at home.

Pick: Ravens 24, Seahawks 17

Cardinals (1-7) at Browns (4-3)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Browns -10, 38½

Analysis: The Cardinals are in free-fall and living up to preseason expectations that they would be one of the NFL’s worst teams this year. Arizona will start rookie QB Clayton Tune, who will make his first NFL start. The Browns had high expectations for their season and have a winning record despite QB Deshaun Watson missing the last four games. Watson is expected to start this one. With Cleveland at home against a bad team with a rookie QB making his first start, the Browns’ defense should lead the way to victory.

Pick: Browns 20, Cardinals 13

Bears (2-6) at Saints (4-4)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Saints -8½, 41

Analysis: The look-ahead line was Saints -5½ but has now moved a full three points, providing some line value on Chicago. Yes, the Bears are a bad team, starting a rookie QB in Tyson Bagent, but the Saints simply cannot be trusted as home favorites laying this many points. New Orleans is 0-3 ATS as a home favorite this season.

Pick: Saints 23, Bears 17

Buccaneers (3-4) at Texans (3-4 )

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Texans -3, 40

Analysis: Both squads are looking to get back to .500 after a loss, but the Bucs are in worse shape on a three-game losing streak. Texans rookie QB C.J. Stroud has been a great story so far, but after putting up impressive stats in the first four games, his production has fallen off. The Texans are 4-1 ATS as underdogs, but they lost last week at Carolina as 3-point favorites. It’s hard to trust either team, so the best way to play this one looks like the under.

Pick: Texans 20, Bucs 17

Rams (3-5) at Packers (2-5 )

Time: 10 a.m., KVVU-5

Line/total: Packers -3, 38½

Analysis: The Packers had high expectations for QB Jordan Love entering this season. But his play has been anything but stellar, and Green Bay’s record reflects that. While it’s still too early to call Love a bust, the Packers aren’t accustomed to subpar play from their starting QB after being spoiled for more than two decades by Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers. It looks like the Rams will start backup QB Brett Rypien for the injured Matthew Stafford. This could work in the Rams’ favor, as they’ll be in rally mode around the backup QB. The Packers have lost four games in a row, and they simply can’t be trusted in the favorite role. With the Rams off an embarrassing blowout loss to the Cowboys and with their bye week on deck, they should be fully focused and will go all-in to win this game.

Pick: Rams 20, Packers 17

Commanders (3-5) at Patriots (2-6)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Patriots -3, 40½

Analysis: These teams are a hot mess. The Commanders have lost five of their last six, and the Patriots have dropped four of five. So the question becomes, which squad do you trust more to bounce back? Washington just traded away its top two edge rushers (Chase Young, Montez Sweat), which in effect raises the white flag on its season. I’ll trust Patriots coach Bill Belichick to get the win at home.

Pick: Patriots 24, Commanders 17

Colts (3-5) at Panthers (1-6)

Time: 1:05 p.m.

Line/total: Colts -2½, 44

Analysis: The Panthers got their first win of the season last week against the Texans, and they’ll try to bring that positive momentum into this game. The Colts are on a three-game losing streak and have lost four of five as backup QB Gardner Minshew has turned into a turnover machine. It’s hard to trust Indianapolis as a road favorite. This is a revenge game for Carolina coach Frank Reich, who was fired by the Colts.

Pick: Panthers 21, Colts 17

Cowboys (5-2) at Eagles (7-1)

Time: 1:25 p.m.

Line/total: Eagles -3, 47

Analysis: Both teams have lived up to lofty expectations so far this season. The Cowboys whipped the Rams last week, while the Eagles rallied for a narrow 7-point win over the Commanders. This game sets up as a rerun of a movie that we have seen many times before over the years in which the Cowboys blow out a bad team at home, and everyone gets on their Super Bowl bandwagon. But then they step up in class the next game on the road and are brought back down to earth. With the Eagles undefeated at home this season, history repeats itself.

Pick: Eagles 27, Cowboys 17

Bills (5-3) at Bengals (4-3)

Time: 5:20 p.m., KSNV-3

Line/total: Bengals -2, 50½

Analysis: After another slow start this year for the Bengals, they look like they’ve finally found their mojo, winning and covering their last three games. The Bills haven’t looked like a Super Bowl contender the last four weeks, going 2-2 straight-up and 0-4 ATS. As a result, nobody is giving Buffalo a chance to win this game. These disparate results set this game up as a classic buy low (on the Bills) and sell high (on the Bengals). Buffalo also will have added incentive to avenge last season’s home playoff loss to the Bengals.

Pick: Bills 27, Bengals 23

Chargers (3-4) at Jets (4-3)

Time: 5:15 p.m. Monday, KTNV-13, ESPN

Line: Chargers -3½, 40

Analysis: Both teams bring positive momentum into this game after the Chargers got a much-needed home win last week over the woeful Bears and the Jets got a dramatic overtime win over the Giants. Los Angeles has the far superior QB in Justin Herbert, but the Jets have the far superior defense. Getting more than a field goal with the home underdog with the better defense cashes tickets more times than not.

Pick: Jets 20, Chargers 17