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NL East betting preview capsules

Philadelphia Phillies' Bryce Harper bats as Andrew Knapp catches during an intrasquad baseball ...
Philadelphia Phillies' Bryce Harper bats as Andrew Knapp catches during an intrasquad baseball game Tuesday, July 14, 2020, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Matt Slocum)
Atlanta Braves center fielder Ronald Acuna Jr. (13) steals second base during an intrasquad bas ...
Atlanta Braves center fielder Ronald Acuna Jr. (13) steals second base during an intrasquad baseball game Thursday, July 16, 2020, in Atlanta. (AP Photo/John Bazemore)
In this Sept. 20, 2019, file photo, Atlanta Braves' Ronald Acuna Jr. (13) follows through on a ...
In this Sept. 20, 2019, file photo, Atlanta Braves' Ronald Acuna Jr. (13) follows through on a two-run home run in the fifth inning of a baseball game against the San Francisco Giants in Atlanta. The Braves will not have Freddie Freeman’s hugs in the pandemic-delayed 2020 season. They do not even know when they will have Freeman, who tested positive for coronavirus at the start of summer camp, and they will not have Nick Markakis, who opted out. That puts more pressure on Acuña to lead the NL East-defending Braves. (AP Photo/John Bazemore, File)
In this July 3, 2020, file photo, Miami Marlins starting pitcher Sandy Alcantara stretches duri ...
In this July 3, 2020, file photo, Miami Marlins starting pitcher Sandy Alcantara stretches during a baseball workout at Marlins Park in Miami. (AP Photo/Lynne Sladky, File)
In this July 9, 2020, file photo, New York Mets starting pitcher Jacob deGrom winds up while de ...
In this July 9, 2020, file photo, New York Mets starting pitcher Jacob deGrom winds up while delivering during a simulated baseball game, part of the Mets summer training camp workout, at Citi Field in New York. Pete Alonso at the plate. Jacob deGrom on the mound. And a healthy Yoenis Céspedes pegged conveniently for designated hitter. There’s no question the New York Mets have reasons to believe this pandemic-shortened season is perfect for them -- even without injured starter Noah Syndergaard. All they need to do is pick right up where they left off last year.(AP Photo/Kathy Willens, File)
Washington Nationals starting pitcher Max Scherzer (31) throws during a baseball training camp ...
Washington Nationals starting pitcher Max Scherzer (31) throws during a baseball training camp workout at Nationals Park, Monday, July 13, 2020, in Washington. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)
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By / Las Vegas Review-Journal
July 16, 2020 - 4:44 pm
 

This is the first in a series of MLB divisional previews from a betting perspective. The season begins Thursday.

The National League East might be the most competitive division in baseball.

Last year’s World Series champions, the Washington Nationals, did not even win the division. That honor went to the Atlanta Braves, who lost to St. Louis in five games in their NL Division Series.

Both teams are expected to contend again this season. The New York Mets should be competitive with big bat Pete Alonso and two-time defending Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom, and the Philadelphia Phillies have a new manager and high expectations in their second season with Las Vegas star Bryce Harper.

Those four teams have season win totals within three games of one another.

The only near-lock is that the Miami Marlins will finish last again.

Here are team-by-team breakdowns, listed in order of the teams’ odds to win the division at the Westgate:

Atlanta Braves

Futures odds: 16-1 to win World Series, 8-1 to win NL, +180 to win division

Season win total: 33½

Last season: 97-65 (first in division, lost 3-2 to St. Louis in Division Series)

Outlook: Westgate sportsbook manager Randy Blum and longtime handicapper Dave Cokin (@davecokin, Wager Talk) regard the Braves as the best team in the division. Outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr., second baseman Ozzie Albies and first baseman Freddie Freeman provide a solid core, though Freeman’s status is up in the air after a positive test for the coronavirus.

“On paper, the Braves are the team to beat,” Cokin said. “They’re loaded.”

Outfielder Nick Markakis has opted out of playing this season, but Atlanta reached an agreement with former Los Angeles Dodgers outfielder Yasiel Puig this week. Mike Soroka tops the rotation; veteran starter Cole Hamels is injured and might not be ready for opening day.

The Braves are tied with the Mets as the second favorites in the NL behind the Dodgers.

Washington Nationals

Futures odds: 18-1 to win World Series, 9-1 to win NL, +225 to win division

Season win total: 32½

Last season: 93-69 (second in division, won World Series 4-3 over Houston)

Outlook: The Nationals stunned the sport with their run to the title last season. A World Series hangover could be in order, but Blum said Washington will be in the mix behind starters Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin.

“You can’t count out the reigning champs with those three guys at the top of the rotation,” he said.

Third baseman Anthony Rendon departed in free agency, but the Nationals still have a solid lineup, anchored by outfielder Juan Soto.

New York Mets

Futures odds: 16-1 to win World Series, 8-1 to win NL, 3-1 to win division

Season win total: 31½

Last season: 86-76 (third in division)

Outlook: The betting market has shown some support for the Mets, who have the same NL and World Series futures odds as the Braves at the Westgate despite having the third-best odds to win the division.

New York lost a top arm with Noah Syndergaard having Tommy John surgery, but the Mets still have deGrom to anchor the rotation. Alonso returns after his Rookie of the Year campaign, and Yoenis Cespedes is expected back in the lineup after a long series of injuries.

“They could take the next step,” Blum said. “They have good young hitters.”

Philadelphia Phillies

Futures odds: 30-1 to win World Series, 15-1 to win NL, 5-1 to win division

Season win total: 30½

Last season: 81-81 (fourth in division)

Outlook: The Phillies fell flat in their first season with Harper, but they have installed new manager Joe Girardi to turn the team around.

“I’m not sure they can be a contender,” Cokin said. “But Girardi knows how to run a team.”

The Phillies added shortstop Didi Gregorius and right-hander Zack Wheeler in the offseason. The problem is, there still might be three better teams in the division.

Miami Marlins

Futures odds: 300-1 to win World Series, 150-1 to win NL, 80-1 to win division

Season win total: 24½

Last season: 57-105 (fifth in division)

Outlook: Any improvement the Marlins show this season likely won’t be seen in the standings with 40 games against four good teams in the division and 20 games against the New York Yankees, Tampa Bay Rays and the rest of the AL East.

Sandy Alcantara leads the rotation, and Jesus Aguilar anchors the lineup for a young team continuing a slow rebuilding process.

“They’ll be a little scrappy,” Blum said. “Not a complete walkover.”

Best bets

(Based on Review-Journal analysis, informed by opinions from bookmakers and handicappers)

Futures: Braves to win division +180 (Phillies 5-1 for longer shot)

Win total: Marlins under 24½

Contact Jim Barnes at jbarnes@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-0277. Follow @JimBarnesLV on Twitter.

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