Notre Dame’s plan should benefit under bettors vs. Alabama
Notre Dame has the nation’s No. 2 run-blocking offensive line, according to Pro Football Focus. Its top three running backs average 5.8 yards per carry. Ian Book runs for 7.1 yards per non-sack carry.
The Fighting Irish run the ball on 56.4 percent of their snaps, operating at the 107th-fastest tempo. Their top tight ends and running back have just seven fewer catches than their top three receivers.
The numbers on Notre Dame’s secondary are strong. It put on a clinic defending against North Carolina, allowing just a field goal in the final three quarters of a 31-17 victory.
Alabama enters Friday’s College Football Playoff semifinal game without its starting center, Landon Dickerson, who might have been the best in the country this year.
The Crimson Tide are explosive in the passing game but slant toward efficiency in the running game. Najee Harris excels in the red zone and as a pass-catcher but doesn’t break free for a lot of long runs.
I expect Notre Dame to attempt to force Alabama to put together long drives. Sometimes Mac Jones can force the ball downfield to DeVonta Smith and others. The Fighting Irish should test his patience.
Notre Dame has improved at the line of scrimmage since the last time these programs played. But Brian Kelly’s team can’t give up too many explosive plays.
The Irish want to limit possessions and keep the score close – if not to get a moral victory, to give them a chance in the fourth quarter.
Take under 65½.
Four more plays:
Auburn-Northwestern U43½: Unders are a combined 15-3 in games involving these programs. Northwestern’s defense allows 1.2 points per possession, tied for second in the FBS, and ranks sixth according to SP+. Auburn has a below-average offensive line, is playing with its defensive coordinator as interim coach and is playing without one of its top receivers in Anthony Schwartz. Opposing quarterbacks have managed only a rating of 90.7 against Northwestern, the best mark by a defense since 2011 Alabama. The Wildcats are equally inept on offense.
Kentucky (-2½) over N.C. State: Kentucky’s rush offense ranks 15th in success rate and N.C. State’s rush defense ranks 66th in the same stat against a weaker schedule. Kentucky’s defense is 14th in explosiveness allowed and has the scheme to contain the big plays that the Wolfpack pass offense produces. This is a rested Wildcats team that ran into some in-season obstacles in the worst possible year to iron them out. I think we’ll get Kentucky’s best performance.
Oregon (+4) over Iowa State: The Ducks defense isn’t what it was last season, but the secondary is solid. Iowa State’s receivers can’t win 1-on-1 matchups. Both teams are going to be able to run the football and both feature exciting quarterbacks. Iowa State is more proven, but may have some emotional hangover after losing in the Big 12 title game following arguably its best season ever. Oregon may have played its best game in beating Southern California and has more to prove after playing just six games.
Ohio State (+7½) over Clemson: The Buckeyes were 1½-point favorites over the Tigers in look-ahead lines at the end of November. I think the market has overcorrected based on an impressive Clemson performance against Notre Dame and a shaky Ohio State effort against a great Northwestern defense. Dabo Swinney outcoached Ryan Day in last season’s CFP semifinal. I make this line Clemson -4½. The Tigers have the better overall team. But even a Brent Venables defense is going to struggle to contain Buckeyes QB Justin Fields.
Last week: 5-0
Season: 41-36
Christopher Smith of AL.com and BetOnline is providing college football analysis for the Las Vegas Review-Journal. Follow @cfblocksmith on Twitter.
